Pre-tourney Rankings
Missouri Valley
2010-11


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
63 Wichita St. 5.1%   23 - 8 14 - 4 23 - 8 14 - 4 +8.3      +4.2 63 +4.1 63 66.1 225 +6.7 73 +7.6 2
79 Missouri St. 4.2%   25 - 8 15 - 3 25 - 8 15 - 3 +6.1      +3.1 78 +2.9 80 61.4 314 +7.7 71 +10.1 1
118 Indiana St. 100.0%   14   19 - 13 12 - 6 19 - 13 12 - 6 +3.0      +1.4 123 +1.6 115 67.2 196 +4.0 108 +5.0 3
119 Creighton 0.0%   19 - 14 10 - 8 19 - 14 10 - 8 +2.9      +1.5 117 +1.4 121 63.0 286 +2.2 135 +2.0 5
127 Northern Iowa 0.0%   18 - 13 10 - 8 18 - 13 10 - 8 +2.6      +1.4 121 +1.2 131 55.8 342 +3.8 112 +2.1 4
184 Evansville 0.0%   14 - 15 9 - 9 14 - 15 9 - 9 -1.1      -0.6 185 -0.5 183 68.3 160 +0.8 150 +1.1 6
196 Bradley 0.0%   11 - 20 4 - 14 11 - 20 4 - 14 -1.9      -0.9 197 -1.0 196 67.6 186 -3.8 224 -6.5 10
205 Drake 0.0%   13 - 18 7 - 11 13 - 18 7 - 11 -2.7      -1.4 204 -1.4 209 65.8 231 -1.9 195 -1.5 7
230 Southern Illinois 0.0%   13 - 19 5 - 13 13 - 19 5 - 13 -3.5      -1.9 231 -1.7 226 63.5 279 -2.2 197 -4.5 8
236 Illinois St. 0.0%   12 - 19 4 - 14 12 - 19 4 - 14 -4.3      -2.3 243 -2.0 236 62.1 307 -4.5 238 -6.1 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Wichita St. 2.0 100.0
Missouri St. 1.0 100.0
Indiana St. 3.0 100.0
Creighton 4.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 4.0 100.0
Evansville 6.0 100.0
Bradley 9.0 100.0
Drake 7.0 100.0
Southern Illinois 8.0 100.0
Illinois St. 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wichita St. 14 - 4 100.0
Missouri St. 15 - 3 100.0
Indiana St. 12 - 6 100.0
Creighton 10 - 8 100.0
Northern Iowa 10 - 8 100.0
Evansville 9 - 9 100.0
Bradley 4 - 14 100.0
Drake 7 - 11 100.0
Southern Illinois 5 - 13 100.0
Illinois St. 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wichita St.
Missouri St. 100.0% 100.0
Indiana St.
Creighton
Northern Iowa
Evansville
Bradley
Drake
Southern Illinois
Illinois St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wichita St. 5.1% 0.0% 5.1% 0.0 3.9 1.2 94.9 5.1%
Missouri St. 4.2% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0 0.1 3.4 0.7 95.8 4.2%
Indiana St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 14   0.0 29.9 62.4 7.7
Creighton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northern Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wichita St. 5.1% 5.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 4.2% 4.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 9.4% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Creighton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 90.8 9.0 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 95.8 4.1 0.0
2nd Round 10.4% 0.1 89.6 10.3 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0