Pre-tourney Rankings
Conference USA
2013-14


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
39 Louisiana Tech 8.5%   26 - 7 13 - 3 26 - 7 13 - 3 +10.7      +3.5 91 +7.3 23 77.7 18 +8.2 68 +7.5 4
75 Southern Miss 16.8%   25 - 6 13 - 3 25 - 6 13 - 3 +6.9      +4.6 62 +2.3 105 63.1 289 +10.1 50 +8.3 2
78 Tulsa 100.0%   13   21 - 12 13 - 3 21 - 12 13 - 3 +6.6      +0.8 154 +5.8 44 72.2 74 +4.7 106 +8.0 3
97 Middle Tennessee 0.0%   22 - 9 13 - 3 22 - 9 13 - 3 +4.8      -0.7 192 +5.5 51 64.3 269 +5.6 88 +8.8 1
100 UTEP 0.0%   21 - 10 12 - 4 21 - 10 12 - 4 +4.5      +0.5 159 +4.0 71 64.7 259 +5.1 97 +5.9 5
163 UAB 0.0%   16 - 13 7 - 9 16 - 13 7 - 9 +0.3      -1.4 212 +1.7 123 72.8 65 +0.8 152 -2.1 8
179 Charlotte 0.0%   17 - 14 7 - 9 17 - 14 7 - 9 -0.9      -1.8 223 +0.9 148 73.6 55 +0.4 160 -3.2 10
183 Old Dominion 0.0%   16 - 17 9 - 7 16 - 17 9 - 7 -1.2      -3.6 269 +2.4 104 63.6 281 -0.7 179 +1.0 6
217 East Carolina 0.0%   13 - 16 5 - 11 13 - 16 5 - 11 -3.2      +0.9 149 -4.1 280 66.3 211 -3.6 225 -5.9 12
227 Florida International 0.0%   13 - 15 7 - 9 13 - 15 7 - 9 -3.8      -2.4 240 -1.4 211 68.0 168 -2.5 208 -3.0 9
232 Marshall 0.0%   9 - 22 4 - 12 9 - 22 4 - 12 -4.1      -3.9 273 -0.3 178 73.2 63 -7.1 275 -8.1 15
237 North Texas 0.0%   14 - 16 6 - 10 14 - 16 6 - 10 -4.2      -4.3 279 0.0 169 73.6 57 -2.4 202 -3.6 11
239 Florida Atlantic 0.0%   8 - 22 5 - 11 8 - 22 5 - 11 -4.3      -2.9 253 -1.4 214 65.3 243 -7.1 276 -6.0 13
281 Tulane 0.0%   16 - 16 8 - 8 16 - 16 8 - 8 -6.8      -2.9 254 -3.9 275 61.7 314 -2.0 195 +0.3 7
293 Rice 0.0%   5 - 23 2 - 14 5 - 23 2 - 14 -8.6      -6.9 321 -1.6 218 62.7 294 -10.7 316 -12.4 16
301 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   6 - 21 4 - 12 6 - 21 4 - 12 -9.1      -2.3 235 -6.8 330 71.7 85 -9.6 304 -7.7 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Louisiana Tech 1.0 100.0
Southern Miss 1.0 100.0
Tulsa 1.0 100.0
Middle Tennessee 1.0 100.0
UTEP 5.0 100.0
UAB 8.0 100.0
Charlotte 8.0 100.0
Old Dominion 6.0 100.0
East Carolina 12.0 100.0
Florida International 8.0 100.0
Marshall 14.0 100.0
North Texas 11.0 100.0
Florida Atlantic 12.0 100.0
Tulane 7.0 100.0
Rice 16.0 100.0
Texas San Antonio 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Louisiana Tech 13 - 3 100.0
Southern Miss 13 - 3 100.0
Tulsa 13 - 3 100.0
Middle Tennessee 13 - 3 100.0
UTEP 12 - 4 100.0
UAB 7 - 9 100.0
Charlotte 7 - 9 100.0
Old Dominion 9 - 7 100.0
East Carolina 5 - 11 100.0
Florida International 7 - 9 100.0
Marshall 4 - 12 100.0
North Texas 6 - 10 100.0
Florida Atlantic 5 - 11 100.0
Tulane 8 - 8 100.0
Rice 2 - 14 100.0
Texas San Antonio 4 - 12 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Louisiana Tech 100.0% 100.0
Southern Miss 100.0% 100.0
Tulsa 100.0% 100.0
Middle Tennessee 100.0% 100.0
UTEP
UAB
Charlotte
Old Dominion
East Carolina
Florida International
Marshall
North Texas
Florida Atlantic
Tulane
Rice
Texas San Antonio


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Louisiana Tech 8.5% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0 1.6 7.0 0.0 91.5 8.5%
Southern Miss 16.8% 0.0% 16.8% 0.0 0.1 3.7 12.9 0.0 83.2 16.8%
Tulsa 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 13   0.1 41.0 56.7 2.2
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UAB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Marshall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Louisiana Tech 8.5% 8.4% 4.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 16.8% 16.1% 6.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 21.7% 5.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 75.8 23.0 1.2
1st Round 100.0% 1.1 88.5 11.4 0.2
2nd Round 24.7% 0.3 75.4 23.9 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 6.8% 0.1 93.2 6.8 0.0
Elite Eight 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0