Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic 10
2014-15


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
30 Davidson 91.0%   10   23 - 7 14 - 4 23 - 7 14 - 4 +11.2      +5.6 30 +5.6 30 70.9 70 +11.3 32 +11.8 1
34 Virginia Commonwealth 100.0%   7   26 - 9 12 - 6 26 - 9 12 - 6 +10.8      +5.4 34 +5.4 34 71.1 61 +12.1 28 +8.0 5
54 Dayton 66.0%   11   25 - 8 13 - 5 25 - 8 13 - 5 +9.1      +4.5 54 +4.5 54 64.1 236 +10.4 39 +8.8 3
59 Rhode Island 5.5%   21 - 9 13 - 5 21 - 9 13 - 5 +8.0      +4.0 59 +4.0 59 67.9 132 +8.0 61 +8.6 4
62 Richmond 8.6%   19 - 13 12 - 6 19 - 13 12 - 6 +7.8      +3.9 62 +3.9 62 58.9 327 +5.9 84 +9.2 2
69 George Washington 0.2%   21 - 12 10 - 8 21 - 12 10 - 8 +6.7      +3.4 69 +3.4 69 60.6 306 +7.0 71 +5.7 6
100 La Salle 0.0%   17 - 16 8 - 10 17 - 16 8 - 10 +4.3      +2.1 100 +2.1 100 65.5 186 +3.7 112 +2.4 9
105 St. Bonaventure 0.0%   18 - 13 10 - 8 18 - 13 10 - 8 +4.0      +2.0 105 +2.0 105 67.2 145 +3.6 113 +5.4 7
121 Massachusetts 0.0%   17 - 15 10 - 8 17 - 15 10 - 8 +2.8      +1.4 121 +1.4 121 72.0 52 +4.8 93 +5.1 8
158 Saint Joseph's 0.0%   13 - 18 7 - 11 13 - 18 7 - 11 +0.3      +0.1 158 +0.1 158 64.9 209 -0.3 165 +1.1 10
188 Fordham 0.0%   9 - 21 4 - 14 9 - 21 4 - 14 -1.4      -0.7 188 -0.7 188 67.7 134 -4.0 239 -3.6 13
195 George Mason 0.0%   8 - 22 4 - 14 8 - 22 4 - 14 -1.7      -0.9 195 -0.9 195 66.6 162 -3.3 226 -3.6 12
207 Duquesne 0.0%   11 - 19 6 - 12 11 - 19 6 - 12 -2.2      -1.1 207 -1.1 207 72.5 44 -2.7 213 +0.1 11
268 Saint Louis 0.0%   10 - 21 3 - 15 10 - 21 3 - 15 -5.7      -2.9 268 -2.9 268 63.6 251 -3.7 232 -5.8 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Davidson 1.0 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 4.0 100.0
Dayton 2.0 100.0
Rhode Island 2.0 100.0
Richmond 4.0 100.0
George Washington 6.0 100.0
La Salle 9.0 100.0
St. Bonaventure 6.0 100.0
Massachusetts 6.0 100.0
Saint Joseph's 10.0 100.0
Fordham 12.0 100.0
George Mason 12.0 100.0
Duquesne 11.0 100.0
Saint Louis 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Davidson 14 - 4 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 12 - 6 100.0
Dayton 13 - 5 100.0
Rhode Island 13 - 5 100.0
Richmond 12 - 6 100.0
George Washington 10 - 8 100.0
La Salle 8 - 10 100.0
St. Bonaventure 10 - 8 100.0
Massachusetts 10 - 8 100.0
Saint Joseph's 7 - 11 100.0
Fordham 4 - 14 100.0
George Mason 4 - 14 100.0
Duquesne 6 - 12 100.0
Saint Louis 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Davidson 100.0% 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth
Dayton
Rhode Island
Richmond
George Washington
La Salle
St. Bonaventure
Massachusetts
Saint Joseph's
Fordham
George Mason
Duquesne
Saint Louis


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Davidson 91.0% 0.0% 91.0% 10   0.0 0.1 1.4 8.4 26.2 38.1 16.5 0.3 9.0 91.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 7   0.5 9.9 40.4 38.5 10.1 0.7 0.0
Dayton 66.0% 0.0% 66.0% 11   0.0 0.2 2.8 15.6 40.9 6.4 34.0 66.0%
Rhode Island 5.5% 0.0% 5.5% 1.2 4.2 0.1 94.6 5.5%
Richmond 8.6% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0 0.3 4.0 4.4 0.0 91.4 8.6%
George Washington 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.2%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Saint Louis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Davidson 91.0% 4.0% 89.3% 42.1% 9.8% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 54.3% 15.9% 4.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Dayton 66.0% 28.9% 50.9% 18.5% 4.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 5.5% 5.4% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 8.6% 7.7% 4.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.7 2.3 32.1 58.0 7.5 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 2.5 4.3 47.1 45.7 2.8 0.0
2nd Round 81.0% 1.2 19.0 49.0 28.1 3.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 28.0% 0.3 72.0 25.4 2.6 0.1
Elite Eight 9.2% 0.1 90.8 9.0 0.2 0.0
Final Four 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4 0.0
Final Game 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1