Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2014-15


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Duke 100.0%   1   29 - 4 15 - 3 29 - 4 15 - 3 +19.8      +9.9 5 +9.9 5 69.4 99 +22.2 4 +20.8 2
6 Virginia 100.0%   2   29 - 3 16 - 2 29 - 3 16 - 2 +19.4      +9.7 6 +9.7 6 53.7 349 +22.2 5 +22.7 1
9 North Carolina 100.0%   3   24 - 11 11 - 7 24 - 11 11 - 7 +16.9      +8.5 9 +8.5 9 78.2 9 +14.9 15 +13.2 5
10 Notre Dame 100.0%   3   29 - 5 14 - 4 29 - 5 14 - 4 +16.6      +8.3 10 +8.3 10 64.0 240 +19.4 8 +18.0 3
16 Louisville 100.0%   4   24 - 8 12 - 6 24 - 8 12 - 6 +14.3      +7.2 16 +7.2 16 67.7 135 +15.6 13 +15.0 4
32 North Carolina St. 99.3%   8   20 - 13 10 - 8 20 - 13 10 - 8 +11.1      +5.5 32 +5.5 32 66.8 157 +10.3 40 +11.8 6
41 Miami (FL) 57.3%   11   21 - 12 10 - 8 21 - 12 10 - 8 +9.9      +5.0 41 +5.0 41 62.1 274 +9.9 44 +10.5 7
56 Syracuse 0.0%   18 - 13 9 - 9 18 - 13 9 - 9 +8.8      +4.4 56 +4.4 56 69.2 103 +8.6 52 +9.3 8
73 Pittsburgh 2.2%   18 - 14 8 - 10 18 - 14 8 - 10 +6.5      +3.2 73 +3.2 73 58.9 326 +7.5 65 +7.9 10
77 Clemson 0.0%   16 - 15 8 - 10 16 - 15 8 - 10 +6.2      +3.1 77 +3.1 77 61.0 299 +6.1 81 +8.4 9
82 Florida St. 0.0%   17 - 16 8 - 10 17 - 16 8 - 10 +5.7      +2.8 82 +2.8 82 70.1 84 +5.7 87 +7.4 11
85 Georgia Tech 0.0%   12 - 19 3 - 15 12 - 19 3 - 15 +5.6      +2.8 85 +2.8 85 65.3 192 +3.3 118 -0.6 14
91 Boston College 0.0%   13 - 19 4 - 14 13 - 19 4 - 14 +4.8      +2.4 91 +2.4 91 63.7 250 +3.7 111 +2.4 13
117 Wake Forest 0.0%   13 - 19 5 - 13 13 - 19 5 - 13 +3.2      +1.6 117 +1.6 117 74.0 26 +3.1 121 +4.7 12
159 Virginia Tech 0.0%   11 - 22 2 - 16 11 - 22 2 - 16 +0.2      +0.1 159 +0.1 159 64.8 212 -1.9 198 -2.6 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 2.0 100.0
Virginia 1.0 100.0
North Carolina 5.0 100.0
Notre Dame 3.0 100.0
Louisville 4.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 6.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 6.0 100.0
Syracuse 8.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 9.0 100.0
Clemson 9.0 100.0
Florida St. 9.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 14.0 100.0
Boston College 13.0 100.0
Wake Forest 12.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 15.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 15 - 3 100.0
Virginia 16 - 2 100.0
North Carolina 11 - 7 100.0
Notre Dame 14 - 4 100.0
Louisville 12 - 6 100.0
North Carolina St. 10 - 8 100.0
Miami (FL) 10 - 8 100.0
Syracuse 9 - 9 100.0
Pittsburgh 8 - 10 100.0
Clemson 8 - 10 100.0
Florida St. 8 - 10 100.0
Georgia Tech 3 - 15 100.0
Boston College 4 - 14 100.0
Wake Forest 5 - 13 100.0
Virginia Tech 2 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke
Virginia 100.0% 100.0
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Louisville
North Carolina St.
Miami (FL)
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Clemson
Florida St.
Georgia Tech
Boston College
Wake Forest
Virginia Tech


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   59.5 39.2 1.3 0.0 100.0%
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   42.5 51.4 6.0 0.0 100.0%
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   0.4 5.6 47.5 42.6 3.8 0.1 100.0%
Notre Dame 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 3   2.9 23.4 62.4 11.1 0.2
Louisville 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.0 0.5 13.7 50.8 27.1 7.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
North Carolina St. 99.3% 0.0% 99.3% 8   0.0 0.5 4.2 23.3 45.9 22.6 2.7 0.0 0.7 99.3%
Miami (FL) 57.3% 0.0% 57.3% 11   0.1 1.2 8.8 37.9 9.3 0.0 42.7 57.3%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pittsburgh 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.0 97.8 2.2%
Clemson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.3% 77.5% 55.5% 31.3% 15.6% 7.3%
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.8% 75.7% 52.6% 28.6% 14.4% 6.7%
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 90.9% 62.9% 27.9% 12.8% 5.2% 1.9%
Notre Dame 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.1% 63.1% 30.5% 12.7% 5.0% 1.8%
Louisville 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 81.4% 47.1% 14.7% 5.7% 1.8% 0.5%
North Carolina St. 99.3% 0.0% 99.3% 50.9% 10.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Miami (FL) 57.3% 33.3% 41.2% 16.1% 4.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 2.2% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Clemson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.6 0.3 41.7 57.0 1.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.4 0.4 58.1 41.2 0.3
2nd Round 100.0% 5.3 0.0 0.1 2.2 14.8 42.4 35.6 4.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.7% 3.4 0.3 3.3 15.1 33.2 33.6 13.6 1.0 0.0
Elite Eight 93.9% 1.9 6.1 28.3 42.6 19.7 3.1 0.2
Final Four 70.2% 0.9 29.8 49.7 18.8 1.7 0.0
Final Game 39.1% 0.4 60.9 36.0 3.2
Champion 18.3% 0.2 81.7 18.3