Pre-tourney Rankings
Conference USA
2014-15


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
70 Old Dominion 14.7%   24 - 7 13 - 5 24 - 7 13 - 5 +6.6      +3.3 70 +3.3 70 58.0 337 +7.2 68 +4.8 2
84 Louisiana Tech 0.1%   24 - 8 15 - 3 24 - 8 15 - 3 +5.6      +2.8 84 +2.8 84 72.7 38 +6.6 78 +9.2 1
99 UTEP 0.0%   22 - 10 13 - 5 22 - 10 13 - 5 +4.3      +2.2 99 +2.2 99 66.1 173 +4.7 95 +4.2 3
129 UAB 100.0%   15   18 - 15 12 - 6 18 - 15 12 - 6 +2.3      +1.1 129 +1.1 129 67.7 136 +1.6 145 +2.9 5
144 Western Kentucky 0.0%   18 - 12 12 - 6 18 - 12 12 - 6 +1.5      +0.7 144 +0.7 144 69.9 91 +2.8 126 +3.2 4
147 Charlotte 0.0%   14 - 18 7 - 11 14 - 18 7 - 11 +1.4      +0.7 147 +0.7 147 70.9 69 -1.0 185 -3.9 12
150 Middle Tennessee 0.0%   18 - 16 9 - 9 18 - 16 9 - 9 +1.0      +0.5 150 +0.5 150 59.4 318 +1.0 147 -1.4 7
198 Rice 0.0%   10 - 19 8 - 10 10 - 19 8 - 10 -1.8      -0.9 198 -0.9 198 61.1 298 -4.4 245 -1.6 8
205 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   12 - 16 8 - 10 12 - 16 8 - 10 -2.2      -1.1 205 -1.1 205 69.7 94 -3.6 230 -2.1 9
232 North Texas 0.0%   12 - 17 8 - 10 12 - 17 8 - 10 -3.8      -1.9 232 -1.9 232 68.2 125 -2.5 207 -1.3 6
271 Marshall 0.0%   9 - 21 7 - 11 9 - 21 7 - 11 -5.8      -2.9 271 -2.9 271 78.2 11 -6.0 272 -3.6 11
272 Florida International 0.0%   14 - 17 8 - 10 14 - 17 8 - 10 -5.8      -2.9 272 -2.9 272 66.7 161 -3.1 221 -2.4 10
292 Florida Atlantic 0.0%   7 - 20 2 - 16 7 - 20 2 - 16 -7.0      -3.5 292 -3.5 292 64.8 211 -7.9 298 -13.4 14
303 Southern Miss 0.0%   7 - 20 4 - 14 7 - 20 4 - 14 -8.3      -4.1 303 -4.1 303 60.8 303 -6.8 283 -7.6 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Old Dominion 2.0 100.0
Louisiana Tech 1.0 100.0
UTEP 2.0 100.0
UAB 4.0 100.0
Western Kentucky 4.0 100.0
Charlotte 11.0 100.0
Middle Tennessee 6.0 100.0
Rice 7.0 100.0
Texas San Antonio 7.0 100.0
North Texas 7.0 100.0
Marshall 11.0 100.0
Florida International 7.0 100.0
Florida Atlantic 14.0 100.0
Southern Miss 13.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Old Dominion 13 - 5 100.0
Louisiana Tech 15 - 3 100.0
UTEP 13 - 5 100.0
UAB 12 - 6 100.0
Western Kentucky 12 - 6 100.0
Charlotte 7 - 11 100.0
Middle Tennessee 9 - 9 100.0
Rice 8 - 10 100.0
Texas San Antonio 8 - 10 100.0
North Texas 8 - 10 100.0
Marshall 7 - 11 100.0
Florida International 8 - 10 100.0
Florida Atlantic 2 - 16 100.0
Southern Miss 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Old Dominion
Louisiana Tech 100.0% 100.0
UTEP
UAB
Western Kentucky
Charlotte
Middle Tennessee
Rice
Texas San Antonio
North Texas
Marshall
Florida International
Florida Atlantic
Southern Miss


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Old Dominion 14.7% 0.0% 14.7% 0.1 5.8 8.7 0.0 85.3 14.7%
Louisiana Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
UAB 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 15   5.4 50.5 42.3 1.8
Western Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Marshall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Old Dominion 14.7% 14.1% 6.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 7.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 85.2 14.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.1 0.0 93.8 6.2
2nd Round 9.1% 0.1 90.9 9.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0