American Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
25 Cincinnati 86.1%   7   9 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 7 13 - 5 +12.9      +4.3 67 +8.6 9 61.6 342 +17.3 23 0.0 1
33 Houston 83.4%   7   8 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 6 13 - 5 +12.0      +4.8 53 +7.2 23 60.1 350 +22.3 10 0.0 1
41 Central Florida 70.1%   10   7 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 8 12 - 6 +10.7      +3.2 93 +7.4 20 62.4 334 +10.3 66 0.0 1
68 Temple 31.6%   7 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +7.2      +3.2 95 +4.0 70 67.8 240 +12.3 45 0.0 1
79 Connecticut 18.1%   7 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 8 +6.5      +4.1 74 +2.4 102 76.4 51 +7.3 94 0.0 1
114 Wichita St. 7.3%   4 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 9 +4.2      +1.7 124 +2.5 99 70.5 163 +3.7 134 0.0 1
115 SMU 4.0%   6 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +4.2      +5.0 50 -0.8 190 61.2 346 -0.8 182 0.0 1
116 Memphis 6.7%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 9 +4.0      +2.5 106 +1.5 126 79.7 21 +4.4 124 0.0 1
119 Tulsa 6.5%   7 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 8 - 10 +3.7      +2.1 116 +1.7 121 67.8 238 +7.2 95 0.0 1
193 South Florida 0.2%   6 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 16 5 - 13 -1.9      -3.2 258 +1.3 131 65.1 300 +2.2 146 0.0 1
216 Tulane 0.1%   3 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 13 -3.1      -1.9 234 -1.2 206 71.5 134 -5.8 242 0.0 1
257 East Carolina 0.0%   6 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 19 4 - 14 -5.5      -5.6 313 +0.1 165 75.5 66 -4.0 221 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Cincinnati 2.4 39.8 24.3 14.6 8.9 5.4 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Houston 2.5 37.8 24.0 15.3 9.6 5.8 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 3.3 22.5 20.8 17.5 13.3 9.6 6.7 4.4 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Temple 4.7 9.3 12.6 14.7 15.0 13.4 11.3 8.8 6.7 4.5 2.5 1.1 0.3
Connecticut 5.1 6.3 10.1 13.1 14.3 14.0 12.8 10.6 8.4 5.6 3.2 1.4 0.3
Wichita St. 6.1 3.2 6.1 9.2 11.5 12.6 12.9 12.4 11.5 9.6 6.4 3.4 1.2
SMU 6.7 1.9 3.9 6.5 8.9 11.1 13.2 14.2 14.1 12.1 8.4 4.4 1.2
Memphis 6.4 2.4 4.9 7.6 10.2 12.1 13.4 13.5 12.8 10.9 7.2 3.7 1.3
Tulsa 6.6 1.8 4.0 6.4 9.3 11.6 13.4 14.2 13.9 12.0 8.0 4.1 1.4
South Florida 9.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.5 6.9 10.3 15.2 21.3 21.6 14.8
Tulane 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.9 5.8 9.1 13.5 20.1 24.3 19.0
East Carolina 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.4 8.1 15.5 26.1 41.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Cincinnati 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.2 5.8 9.2 13.3 16.4 17.4 15.4 10.4 5.1 1.3
Houston 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.5 6.2 9.8 13.6 16.5 17.0 14.4 10.0 4.8 1.2
Central Florida 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.2 7.0 10.3 13.6 15.4 15.6 13.2 9.3 5.1 2.0 0.4
Temple 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.1 9.2 12.2 14.2 14.9 13.5 10.4 7.0 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.1
Connecticut 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.6 7.7 11.0 13.7 15.0 14.6 12.1 8.7 5.1 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Wichita St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 5.1 8.0 11.0 13.3 14.5 13.7 11.5 8.5 5.3 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
SMU 8 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.5 6.9 10.4 13.7 15.3 15.0 12.5 9.2 6.1 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Memphis 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.9 9.2 12.4 14.4 14.9 13.4 10.5 7.2 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 8 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.5 6.5 10.2 13.5 15.2 15.0 13.1 9.6 6.0 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Florida 5 - 13 0.6 2.8 6.8 11.8 15.3 16.9 15.3 12.1 8.5 5.2 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulane 5 - 13 0.9 3.9 8.8 13.6 16.5 16.5 14.2 10.6 7.0 4.2 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 4 - 14 3.6 10.6 16.8 19.5 17.8 13.5 8.7 5.0 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Cincinnati 39.8% 27.3 9.9 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Houston 37.8% 25.8 9.4 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 22.5% 13.8 6.5 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Temple 9.3% 4.9 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Connecticut 6.3% 3.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 3.2% 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
SMU 1.9% 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Memphis 2.4% 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 1.8% 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Florida 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulane 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Cincinnati 86.1% 30.5% 55.6% 7   1.3 4.3 7.2 9.8 10.2 10.2 11.0 10.0 9.3 6.8 4.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 13.9 80.0%
Houston 83.4% 26.0% 57.4% 7   1.4 4.4 6.5 9.0 10.2 10.1 10.7 9.8 9.6 6.3 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.6 77.6%
Central Florida 70.1% 18.8% 51.3% 10   0.2 1.1 2.5 4.9 6.0 7.2 9.3 9.4 10.4 8.9 7.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.9 63.2%
Temple 31.6% 7.6% 24.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.5 3.4 4.6 6.1 6.9 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 68.4 26.0%
Connecticut 18.1% 6.2% 11.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.1 3.3 4.6 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 81.9 12.6%
Wichita St. 7.3% 3.0% 4.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.9 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 92.7 4.4%
SMU 4.0% 2.6% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 96.0 1.4%
Memphis 6.7% 2.6% 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 93.3 4.2%
Tulsa 6.5% 2.3% 4.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 93.5 4.4%
South Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Tulane 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Cincinnati 86.1% 3.3% 84.5% 54.1% 23.9% 9.8% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6%
Houston 83.4% 3.0% 81.9% 50.4% 21.3% 8.5% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4%
Central Florida 70.1% 5.8% 67.0% 36.1% 12.7% 4.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Temple 31.6% 6.7% 27.9% 11.4% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Connecticut 18.1% 4.7% 15.5% 5.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 7.3% 2.1% 6.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 4.0% 0.9% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 6.7% 1.9% 5.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 6.5% 2.0% 5.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.1 2.3 20.4 44.4 27.1 5.4 0.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.0 3.2 25.1 46.0 22.1 3.4 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 91.0% 1.6 9.0 35.7 39.3 14.4 1.5 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 52.4% 0.6 47.6 41.8 9.8 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 23.0% 0.2 77.0 21.5 1.5 0.0
Final Four 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.8 0.2 0.0
Final Game 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2 0.0
Champion 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1