American Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
21 Houston 100.0%   3   24 - 1 11 - 1 29 - 2 16 - 2 +14.5      +6.0 37 +8.5 13 66.0 259 +25.5 4 +22.2 1
31 Cincinnati 98.3%   7   20 - 4 9 - 2 25 - 6 14 - 4 +12.3      +6.2 35 +6.2 29 61.2 340 +15.6 27 +16.0 2
52 Central Florida 68.5%   11   19 - 5 9 - 3 22 - 8 12 - 6 +9.2      +4.1 60 +5.1 46 63.5 315 +11.6 44 +12.0 3
68 Temple 34.0%   19 - 7 9 - 4 22 - 9 12 - 6 +7.0      +3.2 91 +3.9 71 71.0 125 +11.1 46 +11.8 4
76 Memphis 4.6%   15 - 11 7 - 6 18 - 13 10 - 8 +6.4      +3.9 68 +2.6 104 84.3 7 +5.7 101 +5.9 5
85 Connecticut 2.1%   13 - 12 4 - 8 16 - 15 7 - 11 +6.0      +3.8 70 +2.2 114 72.4 89 +2.5 139 0.0 9
98 Tulsa 3.2%   15 - 10 5 - 7 19 - 12 9 - 9 +5.1      +1.5 130 +3.6 76 71.4 111 +6.8 79 +4.8 7
103 SMU 1.4%   12 - 12 4 - 8 14 - 16 6 - 12 +4.7      +6.6 33 -1.9 228 62.0 333 +0.4 166 -1.5 10
112 Wichita St. 1.5%   12 - 11 5 - 6 16 - 14 9 - 9 +4.0      +1.4 135 +2.7 101 69.8 154 +4.9 107 +3.6 8
118 South Florida 1.4%   17 - 8 7 - 6 19 - 11 9 - 9 +3.7      -1.6 223 +5.3 45 68.5 194 +5.8 100 +5.8 6
266 East Carolina 0.0%   9 - 15 2 - 10 10 - 20 3 - 15 -6.1      -5.3 299 -0.7 194 71.0 123 -6.1 253 -6.4 11
285 Tulane 0.0%   4 - 19 0 - 11 5 - 25 1 - 17 -6.9      -5.4 303 -1.5 213 71.9 104 -12.2 324 -15.4 12






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Houston 1.1 95.1 4.9 0.1 0.0
Cincinnati 2.1 16.0 66.1 13.0 4.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 3.3 1.4 21.1 36.3 32.9 6.2 1.7 0.4 0.0
Temple 3.2 0.3 18.3 50.4 25.4 4.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Memphis 5.2 0.9 6.1 20.1 39.2 18.5 9.8 4.6 0.7 0.0
Connecticut 8.3 0.0 0.5 3.6 9.4 13.0 21.5 33.9 17.7 0.3
Tulsa 6.3 0.0 1.3 7.1 21.6 25.0 21.9 16.8 5.5 0.6 0.0 0.0
SMU 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 5.1 10.9 27.6 52.5 0.6
Wichita St. 6.8 0.1 1.0 5.6 17.5 19.2 19.5 20.6 13.2 3.3 0.0
South Florida 6.1 0.1 1.7 9.8 22.7 30.2 21.1 10.7 3.3 0.4
East Carolina 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 4.2 89.5 5.6
Tulane 11.8 0.0 0.2 20.0 79.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 16 - 2 0.1 0.7 4.9 21.7 44.5 28.2
Cincinnati 14 - 4 0.1 0.8 4.2 13.0 24.5 29.3 21.3 6.8
Central Florida 12 - 6 2.2 11.9 26.3 31.3 20.2 7.2 1.0
Temple 12 - 6 0.4 7.0 24.6 35.9 25.2 6.9
Memphis 10 - 8 0.5 7.8 27.1 37.9 22.5 4.1
Connecticut 7 - 11 0.7 5.8 18.0 29.6 28.2 14.5 3.2
Tulsa 9 - 9 0.1 1.1 7.6 24.5 37.3 23.8 5.6
SMU 6 - 12 5.2 20.0 31.8 27.3 12.4 3.0 0.3
Wichita St. 9 - 9 0.4 3.9 14.9 28.3 29.1 17.2 5.6 0.6
South Florida 9 - 9 4.4 22.3 36.7 27.4 8.4 0.9
East Carolina 3 - 15 30.0 40.7 21.8 6.3 1.1 0.1 0.0
Tulane 1 - 17 21.2 41.7 26.5 9.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 95.1% 82.9 11.8 0.4 0.0
Cincinnati 16.0% 4.7 10.9 0.4 0.0
Central Florida 1.4% 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0
Temple 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Memphis
Connecticut
Tulsa
SMU
Wichita St.
South Florida
East Carolina
Tulane


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 41.6% 58.4% 3   3.1 15.8 31.0 29.5 15.5 4.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Cincinnati 98.3% 27.7% 70.6% 7   0.0 0.5 1.3 2.1 4.6 11.1 19.8 21.9 19.1 11.4 5.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 1.7 97.6%
Central Florida 68.5% 11.9% 56.6% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.5 6.7 13.2 18.4 18.4 7.5 1.2 0.0 31.5 64.3%
Temple 34.0% 6.6% 27.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 5.8 12.2 10.6 2.7 0.1 66.0 29.4%
Memphis 4.6% 3.8% 0.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 95.4 0.9%
Connecticut 2.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 97.9 0.0%
Tulsa 3.2% 2.2% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 96.8 1.0%
SMU 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 98.6 0.0%
Wichita St. 1.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 98.5 0.1%
South Florida 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 98.6 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 83.6% 45.4% 17.0% 6.0% 1.9% 0.6%
Cincinnati 98.3% 4.0% 96.4% 53.2% 15.5% 5.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Central Florida 68.5% 19.0% 58.3% 21.7% 4.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 34.0% 18.9% 22.9% 6.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 4.6% 0.7% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Connecticut 2.1% 0.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 3.2% 0.9% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 1.5% 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.1 0.1 15.5 55.5 27.1 1.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.9 0.4 26.5 55.9 16.5 0.7 0.0
2nd Round 95.0% 1.7 5.0 35.8 46.8 11.9 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 57.5% 0.7 42.5 48.6 8.7 0.3
Elite Eight 23.1% 0.2 76.9 22.0 1.1 0.0
Final Four 7.9% 0.1 92.1 7.8 0.1
Final Game 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3 0.0
Champion 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7