Atlantic 10
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
71 Dayton 28.3%   12   5 - 4 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 6 +7.0      +4.2 71 +2.8 91 65.7 287 +7.5 91 0.0 1
76 Saint Louis 31.3%   7 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 6 +6.6      -1.1 202 +7.7 16 67.8 239 +10.9 59 0.0 1
80 Virginia Commonwealth 30.4%   7 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 6 +6.4      -2.7 246 +9.1 7 71.1 153 +11.1 57 0.0 1
81 Davidson 30.2%   8 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 6 +6.4      +4.4 63 +2.0 112 65.7 288 +16.0 25 0.0 1
103 Saint Joseph's 12.6%   5 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 7 +4.9      +4.8 56 +0.1 164 74.5 87 +3.0 137 0.0 1
113 Rhode Island 13.1%   4 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 +4.3      -1.6 219 +5.9 35 70.5 164 +2.9 140 0.0 1
139 Massachusetts 4.4%   6 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 9 +1.9      +2.8 101 -0.9 191 73.4 106 +1.2 158 0.0 1
152 St. Bonaventure 2.6%   4 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 18 9 - 9 +0.6      -1.5 218 +2.2 107 66.9 254 -6.9 255 0.0 1
163 Duquesne 2.3%   6 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 8 - 10 -0.1      +0.5 156 -0.6 177 69.2 199 +6.7 101 0.0 1
171 George Mason 1.4%   5 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 17 8 - 10 -0.6      -0.6 186 0.0 167 71.5 136 -3.3 208 0.0 1
172 Richmond 1.5%   4 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 17 8 - 10 -0.7      +3.0 97 -3.7 285 65.7 289 -6.7 253 0.0 1
238 Fordham 0.2%   6 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 16 6 - 12 -4.8      -3.5 270 -1.2 207 62.9 330 +0.4 168 0.0 1
258 La Salle 0.1%   0 - 10 0 - 0 6 - 23 5 - 13 -5.6      -1.2 212 -4.4 295 77.8 37 -21.0 347 0.0 1
280 George Washington 0.1%   2 - 8 0 - 0 8 - 23 5 - 13 -6.6      -4.0 285 -2.6 250 68.8 210 -11.9 308 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Dayton 3.8 23.6 17.4 14.1 11.8 9.4 7.4 5.5 4.0 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1
Saint Louis 3.7 24.1 18.0 14.4 11.5 9.2 7.1 5.3 3.9 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1
Virginia Commonwealth 3.6 24.2 18.5 14.9 11.8 9.1 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
Davidson 3.7 23.8 18.3 14.7 11.5 9.1 6.9 5.1 3.9 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1
Saint Joseph's 4.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 12.5 11.5 9.7 8.0 6.4 4.7 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2
Rhode Island 5.8 9.1 9.3 9.9 10.5 10.5 10.3 9.6 8.7 7.2 5.8 4.3 2.8 1.4 0.6
Massachusetts 6.8 4.1 5.9 7.7 8.9 9.9 10.8 10.7 10.5 9.4 7.9 6.2 4.3 2.5 1.0
St. Bonaventure 7.6 2.8 4.2 5.7 7.0 8.4 9.3 10.2 10.5 10.5 9.9 8.6 6.8 4.3 1.8
Duquesne 8.0 2.3 3.5 4.9 6.2 7.6 8.7 10.0 10.6 10.5 10.5 9.4 7.6 5.2 3.0
George Mason 8.3 1.3 2.4 3.8 5.2 7.0 8.6 10.0 11.1 11.5 11.7 10.9 8.5 5.4 2.5
Richmond 8.3 1.4 2.6 3.9 5.2 6.9 8.4 10.0 11.2 11.7 11.4 10.4 8.3 5.6 3.1
Fordham 10.9 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.3 5.9 7.9 10.5 13.4 16.3 17.0 16.2
La Salle 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.9 4.3 6.2 8.7 12.4 17.2 22.5 21.5
George Washington 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.6 5.5 7.8 11.2 16.0 22.5 27.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Dayton 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.7 7.4 10.8 13.6 15.2 14.8 12.7 9.0 4.8 1.9 0.4
Saint Louis 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.4 7.3 10.5 13.3 15.1 15.1 13.1 9.2 5.2 2.1 0.4
Virginia Commonwealth 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.2 7.0 10.4 13.4 15.5 15.4 13.2 9.4 5.3 2.0 0.4
Davidson 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.5 7.2 10.3 13.1 15.2 14.9 13.1 9.3 5.3 2.1 0.5
Saint Joseph's 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.6 7.7 10.9 13.8 15.2 14.5 12.2 8.6 5.0 2.2 0.7 0.1
Rhode Island 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.1 7.9 10.7 13.1 14.0 13.5 11.6 8.5 5.7 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1
Massachusetts 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.5 7.4 10.7 13.4 14.7 14.3 11.9 8.9 5.7 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.9 6.8 9.9 12.7 14.2 13.8 12.4 9.6 6.6 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 5.0 7.8 11.0 13.1 14.1 13.7 11.3 8.7 5.8 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
George Mason 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.1 8.7 12.2 14.8 15.4 13.8 10.9 7.6 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Richmond 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 5.2 8.6 12.1 14.5 15.2 13.7 10.8 7.6 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 6 - 12 0.6 2.8 6.6 10.8 14.5 15.7 14.6 12.3 8.9 6.0 3.7 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 5 - 13 1.0 4.3 9.5 14.3 17.0 16.6 13.7 10.2 6.5 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Washington 5 - 13 1.7 5.9 11.6 16.0 17.0 15.9 12.4 8.8 5.4 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Dayton 23.6% 14.4 6.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 24.1% 14.7 6.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 24.2% 14.7 6.9 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Davidson 23.8% 14.5 6.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 13.3% 7.3 4.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 9.1% 4.9 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 4.1% 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 2.8% 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 2.3% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Mason 1.3% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Richmond 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Washington 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Dayton 28.3% 18.2% 10.1% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.4 4.5 7.8 6.8 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 71.7 12.4%
Saint Louis 31.3% 17.0% 14.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.9 5.6 8.2 5.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 68.7 17.3%
Virginia Commonwealth 30.4% 16.1% 14.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.7 5.8 8.2 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 69.6 17.0%
Davidson 30.2% 16.5% 13.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.5 5.6 8.3 5.7 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 69.8 16.5%
Saint Joseph's 12.6% 10.9% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.3 3.9 3.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 87.4 1.9%
Rhode Island 13.1% 9.2% 4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.5 3.3 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 86.9 4.4%
Massachusetts 4.4% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 95.6 0.2%
St. Bonaventure 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 97.4 0.0%
Duquesne 2.3% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 97.7 0.2%
George Mason 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 98.6 0.0%
Richmond 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 98.5 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
George Washington 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Dayton 28.3% 4.6% 25.9% 8.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 31.3% 5.0% 28.5% 10.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 30.4% 5.2% 27.5% 9.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 30.2% 5.0% 27.3% 9.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 12.6% 1.2% 12.0% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 13.1% 2.1% 11.9% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 4.4% 0.2% 4.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 2.6% 0.1% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 2.3% 0.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 1.4% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 1.5% 0.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 52.0 38.3 8.9 0.8 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.5 0.1 60.8 33.2 5.5 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 39.6% 0.4 60.4 34.6 4.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 10.5% 0.1 89.5 10.2 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8 0.0
Final Four 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0