Atlantic 10
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
47 Virginia Commonwealth 65.0%   12   19 - 6 10 - 2 24 - 7 15 - 3 +9.4      -0.1 185 +9.5 9 70.8 130 +11.8 38 +13.1 1
72 Dayton 19.7%   16 - 9 8 - 4 20 - 11 12 - 6 +6.8      +5.8 41 +1.1 138 64.0 310 +6.3 89 +6.3 4
79 Davidson 22.4%   18 - 6 10 - 2 22 - 8 14 - 4 +6.3      +2.7 97 +3.5 80 63.3 317 +9.7 58 +11.7 2
121 Saint Louis 5.9%   17 - 9 8 - 5 19 - 12 10 - 8 +3.5      -1.9 233 +5.4 42 66.1 259 +4.6 110 +2.8 7
133 St. Bonaventure 4.6%   11 - 14 7 - 5 15 - 16 11 - 7 +2.3      -1.5 222 +3.7 72 64.3 301 0.0 169 +4.2 5
139 George Mason 5.2%   15 - 11 9 - 4 18 - 13 12 - 6 +1.8      +0.3 170 +1.5 131 70.7 133 +3.2 132 +7.2 3
140 Rhode Island 2.5%   12 - 12 5 - 7 15 - 15 8 - 10 +1.8      -1.2 214 +3.0 89 70.1 148 +0.5 159 -0.2 9
152 Duquesne 2.3%   17 - 9 8 - 5 19 - 12 10 - 8 +0.7      -0.1 183 +0.8 146 72.3 96 +2.7 136 +3.7 6
179 Richmond 0.6%   10 - 15 4 - 8 12 - 19 6 - 12 -1.1      +2.3 111 -3.5 262 64.6 296 -4.7 233 -4.0 10
182 Saint Joseph's 0.6%   11 - 15 4 - 9 13 - 18 6 - 12 -1.4      +0.5 161 -1.9 225 70.2 143 -1.5 185 -4.5 11
190 Massachusetts 0.3%   9 - 16 2 - 10 12 - 19 5 - 13 -1.9      -0.4 192 -1.4 210 67.7 213 -5.5 245 -9.8 14
198 La Salle 0.5%   8 - 16 6 - 6 10 - 20 8 - 10 -2.3      -2.4 248 +0.2 170 73.3 78 -3.8 213 +0.3 8
226 Fordham 0.1%   10 - 14 2 - 10 12 - 18 4 - 14 -4.0      -2.9 262 -1.0 195 63.2 320 -5.7 250 -9.2 13
256 George Washington 0.1%   7 - 18 3 - 9 9 - 22 5 - 13 -5.5      -5.2 297 -0.3 183 69.1 175 -6.8 267 -6.1 12






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Virginia Commonwealth 1.2 80.1 18.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dayton 3.3 3.1 18.1 44.7 20.2 8.5 3.7 1.3 0.4 0.1
Davidson 1.7 42.1 48.0 7.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 5.3 0.1 1.2 10.8 17.2 23.3 25.9 16.6 4.2 0.7 0.0
St. Bonaventure 5.1 0.1 2.6 13.3 21.1 26.0 19.0 11.9 4.7 1.2 0.1 0.0
George Mason 3.7 2.0 9.0 36.2 30.2 14.2 6.1 2.0 0.3 0.0
Rhode Island 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.6 14.6 31.4 31.2 10.1 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
Duquesne 5.6 0.0 0.8 8.9 14.0 19.6 25.6 23.5 6.5 1.1 0.0
Richmond 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 10.8 18.1 32.5 21.2 9.2 3.5 0.8
Saint Joseph's 10.3 0.0 0.1 1.3 8.2 15.9 29.7 27.1 12.2 4.7 0.9
Massachusetts 12.1 0.1 1.0 3.8 11.2 15.7 23.1 25.2 20.0
La Salle 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 4.1 9.2 18.8 34.1 21.9 7.5 2.2 0.2 0.0
Fordham 12.4 0.0 0.5 2.0 8.1 13.2 21.5 28.2 26.3
George Washington 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 9.3 16.7 28.6 23.3 18.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 15 - 3 0.0 0.1 1.2 6.6 21.8 39.5 30.8
Dayton 12 - 6 0.1 1.4 7.1 20.1 32.5 28.6 10.1
Davidson 14 - 4 0.1 1.5 7.1 19.5 31.4 28.7 11.8
Saint Louis 10 - 8 4.0 19.2 35.3 29.2 10.8 1.5
St. Bonaventure 11 - 7 0.5 4.3 14.6 27.6 30.5 18.4 4.0
George Mason 12 - 6 2.1 12.0 28.7 33.7 19.1 4.4
Rhode Island 8 - 10 1.2 9.2 26.1 34.0 22.1 6.6 0.8
Duquesne 10 - 8 6.7 25.4 34.5 23.6 8.5 1.3
Richmond 6 - 12 4.4 18.8 30.9 27.2 14.1 4.0 0.5
Saint Joseph's 6 - 12 6.0 22.5 35.0 26.4 9.3 0.9
Massachusetts 5 - 13 3.9 16.1 28.9 28.4 16.6 5.4 0.7
La Salle 8 - 10 5.3 21.0 32.9 26.4 11.6 2.6 0.2
Fordham 4 - 14 5.4 20.6 31.9 26.8 12.2 2.9 0.3
George Washington 5 - 13 14.1 31.8 31.6 16.6 5.1 0.8 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 80.1% 55.6 22.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Dayton 3.1% 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Davidson 42.1% 18.7 21.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Mason 2.0% 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Richmond
Saint Joseph's
Massachusetts
La Salle 0.0% 0.0
Fordham
George Washington


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 65.0% 38.1% 27.0% 12   0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.2 5.0 13.4 24.8 13.6 2.0 0.1 0.0 35.0 43.6%
Dayton 19.7% 19.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.5 7.4 7.7 1.6 0.0 80.3 0.2%
Davidson 22.4% 19.6% 2.8% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.2 5.6 9.6 5.0 0.5 0.0 77.6 3.5%
Saint Louis 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 1.4 0.1 94.1 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 1.6 0.1 95.4 0.0%
George Mason 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 1.2 0.0 94.8 0.0%
Rhode Island 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 97.5 0.0%
Duquesne 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.0 97.7 0.0%
Richmond 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 99.4 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 99.4 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.7 0.0%
La Salle 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 99.5 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
George Washington 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 65.0% 17.3% 56.1% 19.5% 4.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 19.7% 0.1% 19.6% 4.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 22.4% 2.5% 21.0% 4.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 5.9% 0.0% 5.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 4.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 5.2% 0.0% 5.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 2.3% 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 70.5 29.0 0.4
1st Round 99.8% 1.2 0.2 80.5 19.2 0.1
2nd Round 29.1% 0.3 70.9 28.0 1.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 7.0% 0.1 93.0 6.9 0.1
Elite Eight 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0