Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
1 Duke 100.0%   1   9 - 1 0 - 0 27 - 4 15 - 3 +23.2      +13.9 2 +9.3 5 79.9 19 +23.9 7 0.0 1
6 North Carolina 97.9%   2   7 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 5 +18.1      +12.5 3 +5.6 38 86.2 5 +14.5 30 0.0 1
8 Virginia 97.5%   2   9 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 6 12 - 6 +18.0      +8.4 16 +9.6 4 55.2 353 +25.5 3 0.0 1
11 Virginia Tech 93.2%   3   8 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 7 12 - 6 +17.1      +10.6 7 +6.5 30 68.2 226 +17.1 24 0.0 1
15 Florida St. 87.8%   5   8 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 11 - 7 +14.2      +6.3 34 +7.9 13 77.0 44 +19.9 16 0.0 1
27 North Carolina St. 45.5%   11   8 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 10 10 - 8 +12.7      +9.1 11 +3.6 75 78.8 31 +14.3 32 0.0 1
31 Syracuse 69.9%   9   7 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 8 +12.2      +4.7 58 +7.6 19 63.8 322 +13.0 39 0.0 1
32 Louisville 70.9%   8   6 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +12.2      +6.8 28 +5.3 45 71.1 150 +13.1 38 0.0 1
46 Miami (FL) 27.5%   5 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +9.9      +5.7 40 +4.2 69 69.1 200 +2.9 142 0.0 1
49 Clemson 30.6%   6 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 10 +9.6      +5.0 48 +4.6 58 65.4 294 +7.3 93 0.0 1
56 Notre Dame 14.9%   6 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +8.9      +4.6 59 +4.2 67 64.8 307 +6.0 107 0.0 1
74 Georgia Tech 7.7%   5 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 16 6 - 12 +6.9      -1.0 199 +7.9 14 67.9 235 +4.1 128 0.0 1
99 Boston College 4.8%   6 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 16 5 - 13 +5.2      +3.8 79 +1.4 128 71.2 147 +5.8 109 0.0 1
120 Pittsburgh 1.4%   7 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 17 4 - 14 +3.6      -1.1 204 +4.7 55 71.3 144 +4.5 119 0.0 1
155 Wake Forest 0.2%   5 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 20 3 - 15 +0.4      +1.3 137 -0.9 192 68.1 230 -0.8 183 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 1.8 60.0 19.6 9.7 5.1 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 3.6 19.9 21.2 16.8 12.7 9.5 6.9 4.8 3.3 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Virginia 4.1 14.5 18.0 16.4 14.1 11.4 8.6 6.2 4.4 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Virginia Tech 4.0 14.6 19.3 17.1 13.9 10.8 8.2 5.9 4.1 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 5.1 7.4 12.8 13.9 14.0 12.6 10.7 8.7 6.7 5.0 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1
North Carolina St. 6.1 3.5 7.7 9.9 11.4 12.3 12.6 11.4 9.6 7.7 5.6 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2
Syracuse 6.8 2.5 5.1 7.5 9.8 11.4 12.2 11.8 10.7 9.2 7.5 5.4 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.3
Louisville 7.0 2.2 5.0 6.9 8.8 10.2 11.5 11.8 11.5 10.1 8.1 6.1 4.0 2.4 1.2 0.4
Miami (FL) 8.7 0.5 1.7 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.9 9.5 11.4 12.5 12.9 11.6 8.7 5.6 2.9 1.1
Clemson 8.5 0.7 2.0 3.6 5.2 6.7 8.4 9.8 11.3 11.7 11.6 10.6 8.3 5.7 3.2 1.1
Notre Dame 9.4 0.3 1.2 2.1 3.2 4.7 6.2 8.1 10.0 11.8 12.9 12.8 11.2 8.6 5.1 1.9
Georgia Tech 10.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.1 7.2 9.4 12.0 13.9 16.1 14.0 9.4 4.2
Boston College 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.4 4.8 6.6 9.1 12.3 15.5 18.0 15.7 9.1
Pittsburgh 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.7 4.0 6.2 9.1 13.5 19.4 23.7 17.6
Wake Forest 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 4.2 7.8 14.8 25.9 42.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.0 6.1 10.9 16.5 21.0 20.6 14.4 5.6
North Carolina 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 5.1 8.2 11.8 14.8 16.4 15.4 12.0 7.3 3.0 0.7
Virginia 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.8 10.3 13.8 16.1 16.3 13.5 9.3 4.9 1.7 0.3
Virginia Tech 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.4 10.0 13.2 15.8 16.2 14.0 9.9 5.4 2.0 0.4
Florida St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.2 6.8 10.0 13.2 15.2 15.1 13.3 9.7 5.6 2.6 0.7 0.1
North Carolina St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.9 10.2 13.7 15.5 15.1 13.0 9.3 5.6 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
Syracuse 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.6 9.1 12.1 14.6 15.4 14.0 10.9 7.0 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Louisville 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.5 9.8 13.0 15.0 14.9 12.9 9.7 6.4 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Miami (FL) 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.7 8.3 12.2 14.9 15.6 14.3 11.3 7.7 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.7 7.8 11.4 13.8 14.9 14.0 11.6 8.5 5.4 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.7 7.0 10.7 13.9 15.4 14.6 12.4 9.0 5.8 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 6 - 12 0.2 1.1 3.6 7.5 11.8 15.1 16.2 14.9 11.6 8.3 5.1 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boston College 5 - 13 0.8 3.2 7.4 12.0 15.0 16.0 14.6 11.9 8.2 5.2 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 4 - 14 2.1 7.0 12.7 16.7 17.4 15.5 11.6 7.8 4.7 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 3 - 15 6.7 16.4 21.6 20.6 15.4 9.7 5.2 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 60.0% 44.6 12.1 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 19.9% 11.4 6.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Virginia 14.5% 7.7 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 14.6% 7.5 5.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 7.4% 3.4 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 3.5% 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 2.5% 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 2.2% 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Clemson 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boston College 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 44.5% 55.5% 1   76.8 16.0 4.5 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
North Carolina 97.9% 14.7% 83.1% 2   20.7 25.2 19.2 11.9 7.4 4.9 3.1 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 97.5%
Virginia 97.5% 13.9% 83.6% 2   23.9 24.5 16.3 10.4 7.5 5.0 3.4 2.4 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 97.0%
Virginia Tech 93.2% 11.4% 81.7% 3   8.4 13.6 16.0 12.7 10.6 9.2 7.2 5.8 4.0 2.8 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.8 92.3%
Florida St. 87.8% 5.1% 82.7% 5   3.3 8.5 11.5 12.5 11.8 10.4 9.2 7.4 5.6 3.7 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 12.2 87.1%
North Carolina St. 45.5% 3.1% 42.4% 11   0.3 0.7 1.5 2.0 2.9 4.2 4.5 5.9 6.0 6.7 6.7 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 54.5 43.7%
Syracuse 69.9% 2.5% 67.5% 9   0.6 2.3 4.8 7.3 8.2 9.0 8.8 8.4 7.2 5.8 4.8 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 30.1 69.2%
Louisville 70.9% 2.3% 68.6% 8   0.7 2.7 5.5 7.7 8.6 9.1 8.7 8.2 6.7 5.5 4.6 2.4 0.6 0.1 29.1 70.2%
Miami (FL) 27.5% 0.9% 26.6% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 2.6 3.3 3.6 4.9 5.2 3.0 0.7 0.1 72.5 26.8%
Clemson 30.6% 0.9% 29.7% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.0 4.0 4.2 5.1 5.2 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 69.4 30.0%
Notre Dame 14.9% 0.5% 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.7 3.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 85.1 14.5%
Georgia Tech 7.7% 0.2% 7.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 92.3 7.5%
Boston College 4.8% 0.1% 4.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 95.2 4.7%
Pittsburgh 1.4% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.6 1.3%
Wake Forest 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.2%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.2% 83.8% 66.3% 48.8% 34.2% 23.4%
North Carolina 97.9% 0.8% 97.6% 86.5% 60.3% 36.3% 20.2% 10.7% 5.4%
Virginia 97.5% 1.0% 97.1% 86.1% 59.4% 35.9% 19.9% 10.6% 5.4%
Virginia Tech 93.2% 1.9% 92.5% 76.1% 47.9% 27.0% 14.2% 7.1% 3.4%
Florida St. 87.8% 2.7% 86.6% 62.8% 32.8% 15.2% 6.7% 2.9% 1.1%
North Carolina St. 45.5% 7.5% 42.5% 26.6% 11.7% 5.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
Syracuse 69.9% 5.3% 67.5% 42.2% 18.3% 7.4% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4%
Louisville 70.9% 5.4% 68.3% 43.2% 18.9% 7.6% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4%
Miami (FL) 27.5% 6.4% 24.6% 13.0% 4.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Clemson 30.6% 6.2% 27.6% 14.4% 5.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Notre Dame 14.9% 4.3% 13.0% 6.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 7.7% 2.8% 6.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 4.8% 1.6% 4.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 1.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.5 0.0 0.2 2.5 14.5 33.2 32.5 14.1 2.7 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.3 0.0 0.3 3.8 18.4 36.0 29.5 10.5 1.6 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 5.6 0.0 0.3 2.8 13.3 30.0 32.2 17.0 4.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.8% 3.5 0.2 3.1 15.5 33.0 31.2 13.9 2.8 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 95.8% 2.1 4.2 24.3 40.0 24.8 6.0 0.6 0.0
Final Four 81.4% 1.2 18.6 48.1 28.4 4.7 0.2
Final Game 60.1% 0.7 39.9 51.0 9.0
Champion 40.1% 0.4 59.9 40.1