Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
1 Duke 100.0%   1   23 - 2 11 - 1 28 - 3 16 - 2 +24.6      +14.2 2 +10.4 4 80.0 16 +29.4 1 +29.7 1
3 Virginia 100.0%   1   23 - 2 11 - 2 27 - 3 15 - 3 +22.0      +10.1 10 +11.8 2 54.5 353 +28.5 2 +27.1 2
6 North Carolina 100.0%   2   20 - 5 10 - 2 24 - 7 14 - 4 +19.7      +11.8 5 +8.0 17 86.1 5 +20.3 10 +22.3 3
16 Louisville 100.0%   5   18 - 8 9 - 4 21 - 10 12 - 6 +15.5      +7.3 24 +8.2 16 67.6 217 +15.9 25 +17.7 4
17 Virginia Tech 99.7%   6   20 - 6 9 - 5 22 - 8 11 - 7 +15.5      +9.7 13 +5.7 37 62.3 329 +16.3 22 +15.5 5
18 Florida St. 99.9%   5   20 - 5 8 - 4 24 - 7 12 - 6 +15.4      +7.1 25 +8.3 15 73.4 75 +17.8 16 +15.4 6
30 Clemson 65.4%   10   15 - 10 5 - 7 19 - 12 9 - 9 +12.4      +3.8 68 +8.6 13 65.6 275 +10.3 54 +9.2 9
32 North Carolina St. 86.7%   10   18 - 8 6 - 7 21 - 10 9 - 9 +11.8      +6.9 27 +4.9 51 78.9 21 +13.3 31 +11.5 8
40 Syracuse 85.2%   9   17 - 8 8 - 4 19 - 12 10 - 8 +10.9      +3.3 87 +7.7 18 65.4 280 +11.8 39 +15.2 7
60 Miami (FL) 0.1%   11 - 14 3 - 10 13 - 17 5 - 13 +7.8      +3.9 66 +3.9 69 66.8 241 +3.8 122 +3.0 13
65 Notre Dame 1.2%   13 - 12 3 - 9 15 - 16 5 - 13 +7.2      +4.3 56 +2.9 98 63.9 312 +6.1 93 +3.5 12
91 Pittsburgh 0.0%   12 - 14 2 - 11 14 - 17 4 - 14 +5.5      +1.0 146 +4.5 57 68.9 185 +2.2 141 +0.6 15
97 Boston College 0.5%   13 - 11 4 - 8 15 - 15 6 - 12 +5.1      +2.9 94 +2.2 117 69.5 166 +5.6 100 +5.8 10
108 Georgia Tech 0.0%   11 - 15 3 - 10 13 - 18 5 - 13 +4.3      -3.3 270 +7.6 19 68.2 199 +2.5 137 +3.6 11
176 Wake Forest 0.0%   9 - 15 2 - 10 10 - 20 3 - 15 -0.7      +0.1 174 -0.8 192 67.6 219 -0.1 171 +0.6 14






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 1.2 81.7 12.7 5.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia 1.7 39.6 54.5 5.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 2.7 12.3 19.4 58.0 7.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 4.6 0.1 2.9 9.8 40.0 29.4 11.8 5.0 0.9 0.1
Virginia Tech 5.2 0.1 4.5 27.5 28.0 29.7 8.3 1.6 0.2
Florida St. 4.5 0.0 1.3 16.6 40.7 21.8 12.6 4.6 1.9 0.4
Clemson 8.2 0.0 0.5 2.3 6.8 15.8 22.5 47.8 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
North Carolina St. 7.3 0.0 1.7 5.9 14.3 30.7 35.3 11.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 6.5 0.0 0.1 1.6 7.9 13.6 20.0 32.2 17.7 6.9 0.0
Miami (FL) 11.1 0.0 2.3 39.4 28.0 16.6 9.6 3.2 1.0
Notre Dame 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.7 35.5 25.3 19.1 10.1 2.8 1.0
Pittsburgh 13.1 0.3 6.9 9.5 13.5 21.0 35.9 12.8
Boston College 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 6.8 39.3 24.0 16.5 10.6 0.9 0.0
Georgia Tech 11.9 0.0 0.9 19.6 20.0 20.6 25.0 12.1 1.8
Wake Forest 14.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.2 5.1 10.0 30.3 51.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 16 - 2 0.0 0.9 7.0 23.8 40.2 28.0
Virginia 15 - 3 0.0 0.2 3.0 16.7 41.4 38.8
North Carolina 14 - 4 0.1 1.7 9.8 26.3 35.6 21.8 4.7
Louisville 12 - 6 1.1 9.9 29.7 37.3 18.7 3.2
Virginia Tech 11 - 7 2.6 18.9 41.1 30.1 7.3
Florida St. 12 - 6 0.1 1.8 9.5 25.5 35.1 23.0 5.0
Clemson 9 - 9 0.5 4.2 14.5 27.7 30.4 18.2 4.6
North Carolina St. 9 - 9 0.1 1.8 11.5 33.7 40.7 12.2
Syracuse 10 - 8 5.3 25.6 35.7 23.4 8.3 1.6 0.1
Miami (FL) 5 - 13 2.6 16.0 37.9 36.1 7.2 0.2
Notre Dame 5 - 13 3.1 20.4 34.8 27.8 11.4 2.4 0.2
Pittsburgh 4 - 14 12.3 32.4 34.2 17.1 3.9 0.2
Boston College 6 - 12 18.8 34.9 28.6 13.4 3.7 0.6 0.0
Georgia Tech 5 - 13 11.8 34.4 36.6 14.9 2.3 0.1
Wake Forest 3 - 15 39.9 39.5 16.6 3.6 0.4 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 81.7% 55.2 22.6 3.8 0.1 0.0
Virginia 39.6% 11.6 24.1 3.8 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 12.3% 3.5 4.9 3.8 0.1 0.0
Louisville 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Clemson
North Carolina St.
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL)
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Boston College
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 46.1% 53.9% 1   99.1 0.9 0.0 100.0%
Virginia 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1   93.7 6.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
North Carolina 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2   10.5 42.9 32.4 10.9 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 100.0% 3.3% 96.7% 5   0.1 1.2 8.1 20.4 28.9 25.9 11.9 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Virginia Tech 99.7% 3.0% 96.7% 6   0.0 0.4 2.8 9.4 16.9 25.7 24.0 13.0 5.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 99.7%
Florida St. 99.9% 3.7% 96.3% 5   0.1 1.8 9.4 22.7 28.3 22.1 10.9 3.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Clemson 65.4% 0.6% 64.7% 10   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 4.8 10.8 14.4 14.4 11.8 6.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 34.6 65.1%
North Carolina St. 86.7% 0.5% 86.1% 10   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 7.3 15.9 19.6 21.8 14.5 4.7 0.7 0.0 13.3 86.6%
Syracuse 85.2% 0.5% 84.7% 9   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 8.6 15.9 21.9 19.9 12.0 3.4 0.4 0.0 14.8 85.1%
Miami (FL) 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Notre Dame 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 98.8 1.2%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.5%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.6% 89.3% 74.4% 56.3% 39.4% 26.3%
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.2% 83.1% 63.0% 41.9% 24.9% 12.9%
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.6% 71.9% 44.8% 23.1% 11.7% 5.4%
Louisville 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 77.2% 40.8% 15.4% 6.2% 2.1% 0.7%
Virginia Tech 99.7% 0.3% 99.6% 72.1% 32.8% 13.7% 5.3% 1.8% 0.5%
Florida St. 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 77.5% 41.0% 15.5% 6.2% 2.1% 0.7%
Clemson 65.4% 14.5% 59.3% 30.4% 8.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 86.7% 13.7% 80.6% 39.1% 9.5% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Syracuse 85.2% 10.7% 80.0% 36.6% 7.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.4 0.3 7.9 45.2 46.0 0.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 8.2 0.0 0.9 13.5 50.1 35.2 0.3
2nd Round 100.0% 6.3 0.0 0.4 4.0 17.7 35.6 30.9 10.3 1.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 3.8 0.0 1.0 8.2 27.6 37.2 20.5 5.0 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 98.1% 2.4 1.9 15.2 39.1 33.6 9.3 0.9 0.0
Final Four 88.0% 1.4 12.0 42.2 38.1 7.4 0.3
Final Game 67.5% 0.8 32.5 52.3 15.2
Champion 46.6% 0.5 53.4 46.6