Atlantic Sun
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
47 Lipscomb 76.2%   12   18 - 5 11 - 1 22 - 5 15 - 1 +9.4      +3.3 85 +6.1 31 82.9 10 +10.7 48 +12.9 2
97 Liberty 27.5%   19 - 5 11 - 1 22 - 6 14 - 2 +5.1      +3.0 93 +2.2 117 59.3 351 +8.9 64 +14.5 1
192 NJIT 5.7%   17 - 8 6 - 5 20 - 10 9 - 7 -1.9      -3.6 277 +1.7 127 67.5 223 +1.3 151 -4.3 4
218 North Florida 3.3%   9 - 16 5 - 7 11 - 18 7 - 9 -3.5      -0.5 192 -3.0 253 78.3 22 -5.4 243 -7.9 7
221 Florida Gulf Coast 3.3%   9 - 16 6 - 6 11 - 18 8 - 8 -3.5      -2.3 244 -1.2 205 71.8 106 -4.5 230 -4.0 3
251 Jacksonville 1.0%   10 - 15 5 - 7 12 - 17 7 - 9 -5.3      -3.4 271 -1.9 228 76.6 35 -6.9 271 -6.4 6
322 North Alabama 0.2%   5 - 18 5 - 6 7 - 21 7 - 9 -10.2      -7.6 335 -2.6 242 70.0 148 -9.6 301 -4.5 5
338 Stetson 0.0%   3 - 21 1 - 10 4 - 25 2 - 14 -13.3      -5.8 311 -7.5 341 72.4 92 -18.1 342 -20.1 9
343 Kennesaw St. 0.0%   3 - 21 2 - 9 4 - 25 3 - 13 -14.0      -8.6 339 -5.4 315 69.5 163 -15.1 336 -14.0 8






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Lipscomb 2.5 10.7 49.5 23.4 11.3 4.0 1.1
Liberty 4.1 1.5 12.8 17.3 25.0 24.9 18.6 0.0
NJIT 1.1 95.6 3.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
North Florida 4.0 2.5 15.9 18.2 24.4 22.4 16.6 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 2.6 6.3 47.7 31.1 11.1 3.3 0.5
Jacksonville 7.4 60.1 38.4 1.6
North Alabama 4.5 0.4 6.9 13.5 24.0 29.0 26.2 0.0
Stetson 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 30.3 16.1 52.9
Kennesaw St. 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 66.1 17.3 14.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Lipscomb 8 - 8 3.2 17.1 34.2 31.5 12.2 1.8
Liberty 7 - 9 9.4 27.0 33.0 21.7 7.6 1.2
NJIT 11 - 5 1.5 11.5 31.2 37.9 17.9
North Florida 7 - 9 8.7 24.6 31.2 22.5 10.1 2.5 0.3
Florida Gulf Coast 8 - 8 1.5 15.8 43.3 33.5 5.9
Jacksonville 3 - 13 84.4 15.6
North Alabama 7 - 9 12.4 33.2 34.9 16.7 2.7 0.2
Stetson 2 - 14 19.4 38.3 29.8 10.7 1.7 0.1
Kennesaw St. 3 - 13 19.8 44.8 30.6 4.6 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 10.7% 2.5 6.1 1.7 0.3 0.0
Liberty 1.5% 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
NJIT 95.6% 82.2 10.7 2.2 0.4 0.0
North Florida 2.5% 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 6.3% 0.9 3.4 1.7 0.3 0.0
Jacksonville
North Alabama 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Stetson
Kennesaw St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 76.2% 60.2% 16.0% 12   0.0 0.3 0.6 2.3 6.2 13.9 16.6 20.5 13.1 2.7 0.1 23.8 40.3%
Liberty 27.5% 26.1% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.2 7.7 9.0 5.3 1.2 0.0 72.5 1.8%
NJIT 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.4 0.5 94.3 0.0%
North Florida 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 96.7 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 96.7 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 99.0 0.0%
North Alabama 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Stetson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Lipscomb 76.2% 4.8% 73.8% 26.2% 5.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Liberty 27.5% 1.0% 26.8% 4.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJIT 5.7% 0.0% 5.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 3.3% 1.5% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 3.3% 1.3% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.2 82.7 17.2 0.1
1st Round 98.8% 1.1 1.2 85.1 13.7 0.0
2nd Round 30.1% 0.3 69.9 29.5 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 6.4% 0.1 93.6 6.4 0.0
Elite Eight 1.5% 0.0 98.6 1.5
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0