Atlantic Sun
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
68 Lipscomb 52.5%   13   6 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 6 14 - 2 +7.4      +3.3 90 +4.1 71 83.2 10 +8.9 77 0.0 1
107 Liberty 31.3%   6 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 7 13 - 3 +4.5      +2.9 98 +1.6 124 61.6 343 +7.1 95 0.0 1
175 North Florida 8.3%   3 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 6 -1.0      +1.5 130 -2.6 249 80.8 17 -0.8 181 0.0 1
200 NJIT 5.3%   9 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 7 -2.4      -2.6 244 +0.1 163 66.5 264 +5.2 117 0.0 1
240 Florida Gulf Coast 2.4%   2 - 8 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 8 -4.8      -1.6 220 -3.2 272 72.9 115 -9.8 288 0.0 1
304 Jacksonville 0.8%   4 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 10 -7.9      -5.6 314 -2.2 241 74.3 89 -7.3 259 0.0 1
328 North Alabama 0.2%   0 - 7 0 - 0 6 - 22 5 - 11 -11.3      -8.0 333 -3.3 275 70.0 177 -15.9 334 0.0 1
337 Stetson 0.1%   1 - 9 0 - 0 6 - 23 4 - 12 -12.8      -5.9 320 -6.9 341 74.1 94 -19.6 345 0.0 1
343 Kennesaw St. 0.1%   0 - 8 0 - 0 5 - 24 4 - 12 -14.0      -10.6 349 -3.4 276 69.5 193 -15.6 330 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Lipscomb 1.4 67.4 24.0 6.3 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Liberty 1.9 38.1 39.7 14.5 5.3 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Florida 3.4 7.7 18.2 31.9 22.3 12.3 5.1 1.8 0.6 0.1
NJIT 3.8 4.2 12.3 26.4 27.1 17.4 8.2 3.2 1.0 0.3
Florida Gulf Coast 4.7 1.5 5.8 15.8 23.1 25.9 16.0 7.7 3.2 1.0
Jacksonville 5.7 0.3 1.8 6.5 13.0 20.9 26.5 17.4 9.4 4.3
North Alabama 6.9 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.0 10.6 18.9 25.5 22.4 15.3
Stetson 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.6 14.2 23.5 28.1 24.3
Kennesaw St. 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.8 11.1 20.0 28.0 33.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Lipscomb 14 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.6 6.1 12.1 19.9 25.1 22.3 10.5
Liberty 13 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.6 7.6 13.1 18.7 21.5 19.0 10.9 3.1
North Florida 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.6 7.1 11.5 15.6 18.0 16.8 13.1 7.8 3.2 0.9 0.1
NJIT 9 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.0 6.1 10.5 14.9 17.8 17.3 14.0 8.8 4.2 1.5 0.3 0.1
Florida Gulf Coast 8 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.8 7.4 12.0 16.0 17.4 16.2 12.0 7.6 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 6 - 10 0.1 0.8 2.4 6.0 10.6 15.3 17.5 16.6 13.4 9.0 4.9 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Alabama 5 - 11 1.0 4.2 9.5 15.1 18.3 17.6 14.3 9.5 5.7 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stetson 4 - 12 1.9 7.4 14.3 19.5 19.5 16.0 10.8 6.1 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 4 - 12 3.6 10.9 18.0 20.6 18.2 13.3 8.1 4.3 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 67.4% 52.1 13.7 1.5 0.1 0.0
Liberty 38.1% 24.5 12.2 1.4 0.1 0.0
North Florida 7.7% 3.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
NJIT 4.2% 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 1.5% 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stetson 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 52.5% 51.7% 0.8% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 4.9 15.0 18.0 10.5 2.8 0.2 47.5 1.7%
Liberty 31.3% 31.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.9 8.8 10.7 6.0 1.0 68.7 0.2%
North Florida 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 3.6 1.9 91.7 0.0%
NJIT 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.4 0.9 94.7 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 97.6 0.0%
Jacksonville 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.2 0.0%
North Alabama 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Stetson 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Lipscomb 52.5% 0.7% 52.2% 13.2% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Liberty 31.3% 0.3% 31.1% 5.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 8.3% 0.7% 8.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJIT 5.3% 0.3% 5.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 2.4% 1.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.0 1.0 0.0
1st Round 98.4% 1.0 1.6 97.8 0.5
2nd Round 19.0% 0.2 81.0 19.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.8 0.0
Elite Eight 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0