Big 12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
4 Kansas 99.8%   1   8 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 6 13 - 5 +18.7      +10.5 8 +8.2 12 72.5 119 +29.4 1 0.0 1
12 Texas Tech 90.1%   3   8 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 11 - 7 +15.6      +5.2 46 +10.4 3 66.0 279 +21.6 12 0.0 1
22 Iowa St. 69.4%   8   8 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 8 +13.3      +7.7 21 +5.6 39 71.5 135 +11.9 51 0.0 1
26 Oklahoma 83.8%   4   8 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 8 +12.9      +5.3 44 +7.6 18 79.2 26 +20.9 13 0.0 1
28 Kansas St. 67.1%   8   6 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +12.7      +1.9 119 +10.7 2 67.7 244 +9.5 71 0.0 1
29 TCU 66.5%   7   7 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 10 9 - 9 +12.5      +5.8 37 +6.6 27 72.1 123 +14.3 31 0.0 1
38 West Virginia 51.6%   11   6 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 10 +11.2      +5.1 47 +6.1 33 73.6 102 +7.4 92 0.0 1
43 Texas 51.7%   10   6 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 10 +10.3      +1.9 120 +8.4 10 68.4 222 +10.4 65 0.0 1
73 Oklahoma St. 12.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 18 6 - 12 +7.0      +2.0 118 +4.9 50 72.8 117 +3.0 138 0.0 1
83 Baylor 8.3%   5 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 18 5 - 13 +6.1      +1.6 129 +4.5 62 65.6 291 +0.7 164 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Kansas 2.0 53.2 20.9 10.9 6.4 3.8 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1
Texas Tech 3.3 23.6 22.5 16.4 12.4 8.9 6.4 4.6 3.1 1.6 0.6
Iowa St. 4.4 10.5 14.6 15.3 14.3 12.8 11.2 8.9 6.5 4.1 1.8
Oklahoma 4.7 9.2 13.1 14.4 14.0 12.9 11.5 9.9 7.5 5.0 2.5
Kansas St. 4.8 8.7 12.5 13.8 13.5 13.0 11.9 10.2 8.0 5.5 2.8
TCU 4.9 8.2 11.8 13.2 13.4 13.1 12.0 10.6 8.5 6.1 3.1
West Virginia 5.6 4.8 8.1 10.3 12.1 12.9 13.1 13.0 11.7 8.9 5.0
Texas 6.1 3.2 5.9 8.3 10.4 12.1 13.1 14.3 14.0 11.5 7.3
Oklahoma St. 7.8 0.5 1.5 2.6 4.1 6.1 8.4 12.0 16.6 23.1 25.0
Baylor 8.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.1 5.0 7.0 10.4 15.3 23.1 32.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kansas 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 6.3 9.4 12.7 15.4 16.0 14.8 10.7 5.7 1.7
Texas Tech 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.2 6.6 9.4 12.1 13.9 14.3 12.9 10.4 6.9 3.5 1.3 0.3
Iowa St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 5.7 8.5 11.4 13.3 14.2 13.4 11.1 8.0 4.8 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1
Oklahoma 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.0 6.4 9.5 11.8 13.7 13.8 12.7 10.1 7.1 4.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
Kansas St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.5 6.9 9.8 12.4 13.5 13.6 12.1 9.6 6.8 4.0 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
TCU 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 4.7 7.5 10.0 12.5 13.5 13.5 11.8 9.1 6.3 3.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
West Virginia 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.2 7.2 10.0 12.4 13.7 13.7 12.0 9.5 6.6 4.0 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.7 9.1 11.8 13.9 13.9 12.8 10.7 7.6 4.8 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 6 - 12 0.7 2.6 6.3 10.4 13.5 15.4 14.8 12.5 9.4 6.3 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Baylor 5 - 13 1.1 4.2 8.4 12.7 15.2 15.1 13.7 11.1 7.8 5.1 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kansas 53.2% 40.9 10.0 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas Tech 23.6% 15.3 6.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iowa St. 10.5% 6.0 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma 9.2% 5.2 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 8.7% 4.9 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
TCU 8.2% 4.6 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 4.8% 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas 3.2% 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baylor 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kansas 99.8% 35.5% 64.4% 1   59.2 25.6 7.7 3.3 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7%
Texas Tech 90.1% 18.1% 72.0% 3   9.4 14.5 14.3 11.9 10.5 8.7 6.5 4.9 3.8 2.6 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.9 87.9%
Iowa St. 69.4% 9.9% 59.6% 8   1.0 3.0 5.6 6.9 7.9 8.7 8.3 8.1 6.7 5.6 4.6 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 30.6 66.1%
Oklahoma 83.8% 8.9% 74.9% 4   3.6 10.7 12.7 13.2 11.3 8.0 6.1 5.0 4.6 3.5 3.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 16.2 82.2%
Kansas St. 67.1% 8.4% 58.7% 8   0.9 3.0 5.8 7.5 8.0 8.5 7.9 7.3 6.0 4.9 4.2 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 32.9 64.1%
TCU 66.5% 8.1% 58.3% 7   1.3 3.5 5.8 7.0 8.1 8.4 7.7 7.1 6.0 4.8 4.0 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 33.5 63.5%
West Virginia 51.6% 5.4% 46.2% 11   0.2 1.0 2.4 3.8 5.0 6.1 6.5 6.6 6.3 5.3 4.7 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 48.4 48.8%
Texas 51.7% 4.0% 47.7% 10   0.2 0.9 2.2 3.8 5.4 6.8 6.8 6.3 6.4 4.9 4.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 48.3 49.7%
Oklahoma St. 12.1% 1.0% 11.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 87.9 11.3%
Baylor 8.3% 0.8% 7.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.7 7.6%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Kansas 99.8% 0.1% 99.8% 94.0% 68.6% 44.6% 26.3% 14.5% 7.3%
Texas Tech 90.1% 2.1% 89.2% 70.8% 41.9% 21.6% 10.6% 5.0% 2.2%
Iowa St. 69.4% 4.9% 67.4% 45.0% 21.1% 9.3% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6%
Oklahoma 83.8% 3.6% 82.1% 57.9% 28.9% 12.3% 4.9% 1.9% 0.6%
Kansas St. 67.1% 5.1% 64.9% 42.7% 19.9% 8.5% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5%
TCU 66.5% 4.6% 64.4% 42.4% 19.5% 8.4% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5%
West Virginia 51.6% 5.6% 49.0% 29.0% 11.7% 4.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
Texas 51.7% 5.8% 48.9% 27.8% 10.4% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Oklahoma St. 12.1% 2.6% 10.8% 4.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Baylor 8.3% 2.0% 7.2% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.0 0.0 0.7 6.2 23.7 37.7 25.0 6.2 0.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.8 0.0 1.0 8.2 27.3 37.6 21.2 4.4 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 4.2 0.0 0.6 5.8 20.8 34.3 26.9 9.9 1.6 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 96.8% 2.2 3.2 20.3 37.8 28.1 9.1 1.4 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 77.5% 1.1 22.5 46.6 25.6 4.8 0.4 0.0
Final Four 48.5% 0.6 51.5 41.4 6.8 0.3 0.0
Final Game 25.7% 0.3 74.3 24.7 1.0
Champion 12.1% 0.1 87.9 12.1