Big 12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
9 Texas Tech 100.0%   4   21 - 5 9 - 4 24 - 7 12 - 6 +17.0      +4.1 61 +12.9 1 66.0 260 +18.3 14 +17.2 3
11 Kansas 100.0%   3   20 - 6 9 - 4 23 - 8 12 - 6 +16.5      +7.4 21 +9.2 10 73.6 71 +19.0 13 +17.3 2
12 Iowa St. 100.0%   5   19 - 6 8 - 4 23 - 8 12 - 6 +16.2      +10.1 12 +6.1 30 70.1 146 +16.6 21 +16.9 4
25 Kansas St. 99.9%   6   19 - 6 9 - 3 23 - 8 13 - 5 +13.0      +3.6 78 +9.4 9 62.4 328 +17.1 20 +20.8 1
26 Texas 89.2%   7   15 - 11 7 - 6 17 - 14 9 - 9 +13.0      +6.7 30 +6.2 28 64.0 308 +10.5 53 +12.4 6
33 TCU 76.8%   8   17 - 8 5 - 7 20 - 11 8 - 10 +11.8      +6.4 34 +5.4 43 71.4 114 +12.6 32 +10.0 7
34 Baylor 91.4%   8   16 - 9 7 - 5 19 - 12 10 - 8 +11.8      +6.7 29 +5.0 47 64.3 303 +11.8 42 +14.8 5
35 Oklahoma 66.5%   11   16 - 10 4 - 9 18 - 13 6 - 12 +11.7      +4.1 63 +7.6 19 73.0 82 +11.9 37 +6.4 8
89 Oklahoma St. 0.2%   9 - 16 2 - 10 11 - 20 4 - 14 +5.5      +3.5 79 +1.9 120 65.2 287 +4.1 115 +2.0 9
99 West Virginia 0.1%   10 - 15 2 - 10 12 - 19 4 - 14 +5.0      +2.7 102 +2.3 109 73.3 78 +3.8 121 +2.0 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Texas Tech 2.2 38.0 26.0 19.0 14.0 2.6 0.5 0.0
Kansas 2.2 36.4 25.1 20.6 13.8 3.7 0.4 0.0
Iowa St. 2.6 28.6 23.6 21.7 17.5 6.4 1.9 0.3 0.0
Kansas St. 2.0 46.9 24.8 16.2 9.2 2.6 0.3 0.0
Texas 5.5 0.4 1.7 4.2 10.5 30.2 36.8 15.0 1.4
TCU 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 11.1 26.3 49.3 9.1 0.4 0.0
Baylor 4.7 2.3 5.0 9.2 18.0 40.2 21.5 3.7 0.1
Oklahoma 7.7 0.0 0.6 4.6 23.7 66.5 4.3 0.3
Oklahoma St. 9.3 0.0 0.9 6.4 55.6 37.1
West Virginia 9.3 0.1 1.4 8.5 49.8 40.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Texas Tech 12 - 6 0.3 4.2 17.6 34.1 32.2 11.7
Kansas 12 - 6 0.5 5.3 18.3 34.4 30.9 10.6
Iowa St. 12 - 6 0.2 2.3 9.4 22.6 31.2 25.2 9.1
Kansas St. 13 - 5 0.4 3.9 14.7 28.9 31.1 17.2 3.8
Texas 9 - 9 5.2 20.4 32.8 27.6 11.8 2.2
TCU 8 - 10 1.9 9.5 22.5 29.6 23.5 10.7 2.2
Baylor 10 - 8 0.8 7.3 24.3 34.6 24.1 7.8 1.1
Oklahoma 6 - 12 2.8 17.7 33.9 30.3 13.3 2.0
Oklahoma St. 4 - 14 12.7 34.4 32.6 15.4 4.2 0.6 0.0
West Virginia 4 - 14 16.0 32.5 29.6 15.9 5.0 1.0 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Texas Tech 38.0% 15.5 13.8 6.6 1.9 0.2 0.0
Kansas 36.4% 14.5 13.0 6.9 1.8 0.2 0.0
Iowa St. 28.6% 9.9 10.7 6.0 1.8 0.2 0.0
Kansas St. 46.9% 21.0 16.5 7.3 1.9 0.2 0.0
Texas 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
TCU 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Baylor 2.3% 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
West Virginia


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Texas Tech 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 4   1.2 9.1 24.5 30.6 21.2 9.6 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Kansas 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 3   3.3 25.9 42.2 22.2 5.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Iowa St. 100.0% 20.7% 79.2% 5   0.9 4.6 13.9 22.1 23.3 19.8 10.7 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Kansas St. 99.9% 10.3% 89.6% 6   0.1 1.2 5.6 12.5 21.9 26.8 19.8 8.2 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Texas 89.2% 7.3% 81.9% 7   0.0 0.2 0.5 2.4 9.2 21.0 25.7 17.0 7.3 4.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.8 88.3%
TCU 76.8% 4.5% 72.4% 8   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 5.7 12.8 15.5 12.3 11.0 10.5 5.5 1.3 0.1 23.2 75.7%
Baylor 91.4% 5.6% 85.7% 8   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 7.5 19.4 27.0 20.7 9.4 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.6 90.8%
Oklahoma 66.5% 3.6% 62.8% 11   0.0 0.2 0.4 1.5 3.8 7.5 11.0 12.7 14.6 11.3 3.2 0.2 0.0 33.5 65.2%
Oklahoma St. 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
West Virginia 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Texas Tech 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 86.1% 53.9% 23.5% 10.2% 4.2% 1.5%
Kansas 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 90.3% 57.4% 27.0% 11.1% 4.4% 1.6%
Iowa St. 100.0% 0.1% 99.9% 80.4% 46.0% 19.1% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0%
Kansas St. 99.9% 0.1% 99.8% 65.9% 27.0% 8.8% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2%
Texas 89.2% 3.9% 87.6% 50.4% 14.4% 5.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
TCU 76.8% 13.0% 70.9% 36.2% 9.7% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Baylor 91.4% 3.2% 89.9% 46.2% 11.2% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Oklahoma 66.5% 23.7% 56.4% 26.5% 7.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Virginia 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.2 0.0 0.9 13.1 47.3 38.6 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 7.0 0.0 1.8 20.0 49.9 28.3 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.8 9.6 26.3 34.7 21.7 5.4 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 96.7% 2.3 3.3 19.6 37.1 28.6 9.5 1.6 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 67.4% 0.9 32.7 44.6 19.1 3.4 0.3 0.0
Final Four 32.9% 0.4 67.1 29.3 3.6 0.1
Final Game 13.2% 0.1 86.8 12.9 0.3
Champion 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5