Big East
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
21 Villanova 90.9%   4   8 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 6 +13.3      +8.8 14 +4.6 61 62.0 341 +14.1 33 0.0 1
34 Marquette 84.9%   6   8 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +12.0      +7.1 24 +4.9 51 71.4 139 +17.4 22 0.0 1
37 Butler 74.6%   8   7 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +11.6      +6.7 29 +4.9 53 65.1 299 +11.1 56 0.0 1
42 Creighton 66.9%   9   6 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +10.6      +9.7 9 +0.9 144 75.2 73 +11.9 50 0.0 1
45 St. John's 57.9%   9   9 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 9 - 9 +10.0      +7.5 22 +2.5 98 77.5 40 +20.1 14 0.0 1
55 Seton Hall 44.7%   6 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +8.9      +4.3 66 +4.6 57 71.6 133 +10.8 60 0.0 1
57 Xavier 35.8%   6 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 9 +8.8      +6.9 25 +1.8 114 66.1 277 +7.2 96 0.0 1
70 Providence 22.4%   7 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +7.0      +3.6 84 +3.3 79 67.4 248 +7.7 88 0.0 1
86 Georgetown 15.6%   7 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +5.9      +3.7 81 +2.2 108 81.0 15 +9.6 69 0.0 1
107 DePaul 7.4%   5 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 6 - 12 +4.6      +2.5 107 +2.1 110 69.5 189 +7.2 97 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Villanova 2.9 34.4 20.6 14.3 10.2 7.4 5.2 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.5
Marquette 3.6 23.1 18.6 15.1 12.3 9.9 7.5 5.7 4.1 2.5 1.2
Butler 3.8 20.5 17.4 14.9 12.7 10.4 8.3 6.6 4.6 3.1 1.6
Creighton 4.4 14.9 14.5 13.6 12.9 11.6 10.1 8.6 6.7 4.6 2.6
St. John's 4.7 11.7 12.6 12.8 12.7 12.1 11.1 9.5 8.1 5.8 3.6
Seton Hall 5.3 7.8 9.6 10.8 11.6 12.2 11.9 11.6 10.4 8.6 5.5
Xavier 5.4 7.0 9.1 10.7 11.6 12.2 12.3 11.9 10.7 8.8 5.8
Providence 6.5 3.2 4.9 6.8 8.4 10.1 11.7 13.6 14.6 14.8 12.0
Georgetown 7.1 2.1 3.4 4.9 6.4 8.2 10.5 12.6 15.6 18.1 18.3
DePaul 7.8 1.2 2.1 3.2 4.6 6.2 8.4 11.0 14.6 19.9 28.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Villanova 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.3 5.4 8.3 11.3 13.7 14.8 14.0 11.6 8.1 4.4 1.8 0.4
Marquette 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.3 8.1 11.1 13.2 14.2 13.6 11.6 8.4 5.0 2.4 0.8 0.1
Butler 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.2 8.9 11.7 13.5 14.1 12.9 10.7 7.3 4.4 2.1 0.7 0.1
Creighton 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.6 8.3 10.8 13.0 13.8 13.0 11.1 8.2 5.3 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.1
St. John's 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.3 4.3 6.8 9.6 12.0 13.6 13.4 12.4 9.7 6.9 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
Seton Hall 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.7 6.2 9.0 11.8 13.4 13.6 12.6 10.3 7.5 4.8 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Xavier 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.8 6.4 9.5 11.9 13.6 13.8 12.6 10.1 7.3 4.5 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Providence 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.2 7.4 10.6 13.1 14.3 13.7 11.8 8.9 6.2 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 7 - 11 0.2 1.3 3.4 6.5 10.1 12.8 14.2 13.9 12.3 9.6 6.8 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
DePaul 6 - 12 0.7 2.7 6.1 9.8 13.0 14.3 14.0 12.3 10.0 7.2 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Villanova 34.4% 24.0 8.0 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Marquette 23.1% 14.9 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Butler 20.5% 13.0 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Creighton 14.9% 9.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
St. John's 11.7% 6.8 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 7.8% 4.3 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Xavier 7.0% 3.8 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Providence 3.2% 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
DePaul 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Villanova 90.9% 23.6% 67.3% 4   2.5 8.3 12.7 14.9 13.1 11.5 9.6 6.9 5.4 3.0 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 9.1 88.1%
Marquette 84.9% 16.9% 67.9% 6   1.2 5.4 8.9 12.0 12.4 11.9 10.4 7.8 6.9 3.9 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 15.1 81.8%
Butler 74.6% 15.4% 59.1% 8   0.6 2.8 5.7 8.6 8.9 9.8 9.7 8.7 8.5 5.5 3.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 25.4 69.9%
Creighton 66.9% 12.1% 54.7% 9   0.3 1.5 3.7 6.1 7.3 8.3 9.2 8.6 8.6 6.2 4.4 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 33.1 62.3%
St. John's 57.9% 10.0% 47.9% 9   0.2 1.2 2.5 4.1 5.6 6.3 7.6 8.2 8.0 6.5 4.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 42.1 53.2%
Seton Hall 44.7% 7.2% 37.5% 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.2 4.4 5.6 6.1 7.5 6.1 5.1 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 55.3 40.4%
Xavier 35.8% 6.9% 28.9% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.7 5.9 5.9 5.5 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 64.2 31.1%
Providence 22.4% 3.7% 18.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.2 2.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 77.6 19.4%
Georgetown 15.6% 2.5% 13.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.6 2.9 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 84.4 13.4%
DePaul 7.4% 1.6% 5.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 92.6 5.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Villanova 90.9% 1.9% 89.9% 62.8% 30.8% 12.9% 5.2% 1.9% 0.7%
Marquette 84.9% 2.6% 83.5% 53.1% 23.3% 8.7% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3%
Butler 74.6% 3.5% 72.8% 44.4% 18.2% 6.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Creighton 66.9% 4.3% 64.6% 36.3% 13.5% 4.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2%
St. John's 57.9% 4.6% 55.5% 29.7% 10.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Seton Hall 44.7% 5.2% 42.0% 20.7% 6.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Xavier 35.8% 5.4% 33.0% 15.7% 4.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Providence 22.4% 3.9% 20.2% 8.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 15.6% 3.1% 13.9% 5.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 7.4% 1.6% 6.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.0 0.0 0.6 6.2 24.1 37.4 24.6 6.5 0.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.8 0.0 0.9 8.4 28.3 37.3 20.4 4.3 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 98.9% 2.8 1.1 10.0 28.8 35.0 19.6 5.0 0.6 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 74.7% 1.1 25.3 44.5 24.3 5.4 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 36.8% 0.4 63.2 31.9 4.7 0.3 0.0
Final Four 14.7% 0.2 85.3 14.1 0.6 0.0
Final Game 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.1 0.0
Champion 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7