Big East
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
19 Villanova 99.9%   5   20 - 6 11 - 2 24 - 7 15 - 3 +15.0      +10.8 7 +4.2 61 61.5 338 +15.9 26 +20.0 1
24 Marquette 100.0%   4   21 - 4 10 - 2 25 - 6 14 - 4 +13.7      +8.3 18 +5.4 42 71.4 110 +19.1 12 +19.4 2
42 St. John's 93.2%   9   19 - 7 7 - 6 22 - 9 10 - 8 +10.5      +5.2 47 +5.3 44 75.8 44 +13.2 32 +10.9 3
46 Butler 16.4%   15 - 11 6 - 7 17 - 14 8 - 10 +9.5      +6.0 36 +3.4 80 65.3 283 +8.4 67 +7.8 5
49 Seton Hall 44.1%   12   16 - 9 7 - 6 18 - 12 9 - 9 +9.3      +4.3 56 +5.0 49 72.1 101 +11.8 41 +9.9 4
51 Creighton 12.1%   12 - 13 4 - 9 15 - 15 7 - 11 +9.2      +6.9 28 +2.4 108 71.9 104 +6.6 84 +4.5 9
67 Georgetown 5.7%   15 - 10 5 - 7 17 - 14 7 - 11 +7.2      +5.5 43 +1.7 126 79.7 19 +7.3 74 +6.9 6
78 Providence 2.7%   14 - 12 4 - 9 16 - 15 6 - 12 +6.3      +0.5 165 +5.8 33 68.1 205 +6.0 93 +3.5 10
82 Xavier 2.1%   13 - 13 5 - 8 15 - 16 7 - 11 +6.1      +4.8 50 +1.3 133 65.0 290 +5.5 103 +5.3 8
98 DePaul 2.0%   13 - 11 5 - 8 15 - 14 7 - 11 +5.1      +4.0 64 +1.1 139 72.3 94 +5.9 95 +6.9 7






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Villanova 3.3 6.7 17.6 31.7 31.8 8.4 3.2 0.6 0.0
Marquette 1.4 71.3 19.9 6.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
St. John's 5.2 0.1 1.5 7.8 18.8 30.5 28.8 10.7 1.5 0.2 0.0
Butler 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 9.0 42.3 29.1 17.5
Seton Hall 4.8 0.1 1.1 7.5 24.0 43.1 21.2 3.0 0.0
Creighton 1.7 46.0 38.9 11.6 3.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 2.8 13.9 26.8 35.0 17.9 4.5 1.7 0.2 0.0
Providence 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.1 27.3 31.4 36.5
Xavier 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.8 9.1 43.6 31.2 12.9
DePaul 6.4 0.0 0.6 3.7 12.2 25.0 52.7 4.8 0.8 0.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Villanova 12 - 6 0.2 2.1 10.5 27.0 34.9 20.8 4.6
Marquette 14 - 4 0.2 2.3 9.9 23.8 32.9 23.9 7.0
St. John's 10 - 8 1.1 7.1 20.7 32.5 28.2 10.4
Butler 6 - 12 4.1 18.3 31.5 27.6 13.9 4.0 0.5
Seton Hall 10 - 8 0.2 10.3 41.4 41.8 6.2
Creighton 13 - 5 0.3 3.5 15.7 34.0 34.5 12.1
Georgetown 12 - 6 0.1 1.0 5.8 18.2 31.9 30.3 12.8
Providence 6 - 12 10.8 28.4 32.9 20.1 6.7 1.0
Xavier 7 - 11 17.7 34.4 30.0 13.8 3.7 0.4
DePaul 9 - 9 0.1 1.1 7.6 24.6 37.2 23.9 5.5




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Villanova 6.7% 1.1 2.5 2.4 0.8 0.0
Marquette 71.3% 44.9 20.1 5.5 0.8 0.0
St. John's 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Butler
Seton Hall 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Creighton 46.0% 20.5 19.3 5.4 0.8 0.0
Georgetown 13.9% 2.9 6.0 4.2 0.8 0.0
Providence
Xavier
DePaul


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Villanova 99.9% 32.8% 67.1% 5   0.3 2.0 8.2 19.3 27.3 23.5 12.8 4.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8%
Marquette 100.0% 26.5% 73.4% 4   0.5 3.8 15.3 29.4 29.3 15.0 5.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
St. John's 93.2% 10.2% 83.0% 9   0.1 0.5 1.4 4.7 15.0 26.9 24.8 13.0 5.5 1.4 0.1 6.8 92.5%
Butler 16.4% 4.9% 11.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.5 4.6 4.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 83.6 12.1%
Seton Hall 44.1% 7.7% 36.4% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.4 8.1 16.9 13.3 1.7 0.0 55.9 39.4%
Creighton 12.1% 9.1% 3.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 4.8 4.2 0.7 0.0 87.9 3.3%
Georgetown 5.7% 4.8% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 2.6 0.7 0.0 94.3 1.0%
Providence 2.7% 1.5% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 97.3 1.3%
Xavier 2.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 97.9 0.9%
DePaul 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 98.0 0.5%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Villanova 99.9% 0.1% 99.8% 75.9% 38.2% 14.1% 5.4% 1.9% 0.6%
Marquette 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 75.9% 36.8% 11.7% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3%
St. John's 93.2% 4.4% 90.9% 41.1% 7.8% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Butler 16.4% 6.5% 13.3% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 44.1% 24.4% 31.5% 10.7% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Creighton 12.1% 2.4% 10.9% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 5.7% 0.8% 5.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 2.7% 0.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Xavier 2.1% 0.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 2.0% 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.8 1.7 34.5 48.8 13.9 1.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.6 3.2 45.1 43.2 8.1 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 97.5% 2.1 2.5 18.9 44.8 29.3 4.3 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 67.2% 0.9 32.8 47.9 17.5 1.7 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 27.1% 0.3 72.9 24.8 2.2 0.1
Final Four 10.0% 0.1 90.0 9.7 0.2
Final Game 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2 0.0
Champion 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9