Big Sky
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
108 Montana 48.8%   14   16 - 6 11 - 2 22 - 7 17 - 3 +4.2      +3.0 92 +1.2 136 68.7 188 +6.0 92 +6.4 1
172 Weber St. 13.7%   13 - 10 9 - 5 17 - 12 13 - 7 -0.5      -0.5 191 0.0 174 75.5 48 -1.5 189 -1.2 3
178 Northern Colorado 18.0%   15 - 8 11 - 3 19 - 10 15 - 5 -0.8      -1.1 212 +0.3 165 67.9 208 +0.7 160 +3.2 2
223 Montana St. 7.3%   11 - 12 9 - 5 14 - 15 12 - 8 -3.7      +1.0 147 -4.7 301 74.5 58 -3.2 207 -2.0 4
245 Sacramento St. 3.2%   8 - 11 5 - 8 12 - 15 9 - 11 -5.0      -4.3 285 -0.7 193 68.8 187 -6.4 262 -8.8 8
256 Eastern Washington 3.8%   7 - 15 6 - 6 11 - 19 10 - 10 -5.5      -2.1 240 -3.4 263 68.6 190 -6.4 263 -4.4 5
280 Southern Utah 2.4%   10 - 11 7 - 7 13 - 14 10 - 10 -6.7      -4.6 288 -2.1 236 76.0 43 -4.3 223 -5.4 6
290 Portland St. 1.7%   7 - 14 5 - 8 10 - 18 8 - 12 -7.3      -0.9 207 -6.4 334 72.2 97 -8.2 285 -7.5 7
310 Idaho St. 0.5%   7 - 14 5 - 9 9 - 18 7 - 13 -8.8      -0.7 198 -8.2 346 66.4 247 -7.9 282 -9.3 9
312 Northern Arizona 0.4%   7 - 17 5 - 9 9 - 21 7 - 13 -9.3      -2.8 258 -6.4 335 70.8 128 -10.2 309 -9.7 10
344 Idaho 0.0%   2 - 19 1 - 12 3 - 25 2 - 18 -14.3      -5.4 301 -8.9 348 63.1 322 -20.1 347 -21.8 11






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Montana 1.1 93.0 6.9 0.1
Weber St. 5.3 0.1 8.9 25.1 26.7 18.0 12.2 6.7 1.9 0.4
Northern Colorado 1.9 17.2 80.5 2.2 0.2 0.0
Montana St. 3.2 0.3 7.5 73.1 13.7 3.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
Sacramento St. 6.6 0.0 4.7 11.9 14.6 15.7 17.3 20.1 10.4 5.3 0.0
Eastern Washington 4.7 0.0 1.9 22.2 34.2 15.9 10.6 7.5 5.0 2.0 0.6
Southern Utah 5.3 0.0 0.3 11.5 23.0 22.9 19.2 13.9 7.5 1.6 0.2
Portland St. 5.8 0.0 3.1 15.3 24.4 24.4 19.4 10.8 2.3 0.3
Idaho St. 8.5 0.1 1.3 3.1 5.7 9.8 19.1 37.8 23.0 0.1
Northern Arizona 8.9 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.5 7.1 15.8 33.3 38.2 0.2
Idaho 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 98.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Montana 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.9 23.2 37.1 28.4
Weber St. 10 - 10 0.3 3.1 13.0 28.6 32.2 18.4 4.5
Northern Colorado 15 - 5 0.2 2.5 11.6 27.2 33.4 20.8 4.4
Montana St. 12 - 8 1.5 9.9 25.6 33.1 22.0 7.1 0.8
Sacramento St. 9 - 11 0.7 4.9 14.5 25.3 27.2 18.4 7.6 1.4
Eastern Washington 10 - 10 0.3 2.2 8.7 18.9 26.1 23.7 14.4 5.0 0.8
Southern Utah 10 - 10 2.3 14.6 30.9 31.2 16.3 4.4 0.4
Portland St. 9 - 11 3.5 19.6 38.8 29.6 8.1 0.5
Idaho St. 7 - 13 4.5 22.0 34.3 25.8 10.7 2.4 0.2
Northern Arizona 7 - 13 6.7 29.6 37.2 20.3 5.5 0.8 0.0
Idaho 2 - 18 21.9 35.4 26.4 12.0 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana 93.0% 82.7 10.1 0.2
Weber St.
Northern Colorado 17.2% 6.9 10.1 0.2
Montana St. 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1
Sacramento St.
Eastern Washington 0.0% 0.0
Southern Utah 0.0% 0.0
Portland St.
Idaho St.
Northern Arizona
Idaho


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana 48.8% 48.8% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 1.0 8.9 19.0 16.3 3.4 0.0 51.2 0.0%
Weber St. 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.1 8.7 1.5 86.3 0.0%
Northern Colorado 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.5 11.7 2.3 82.0 0.0%
Montana St. 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.1 4.1 92.7 0.0%
Sacramento St. 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 2.4 96.8 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.3 96.2 0.0%
Southern Utah 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.9 97.6 0.0%
Portland St. 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.6 98.3 0.0%
Idaho St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Idaho 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Montana 48.8% 0.0% 48.8% 6.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 13.7% 0.1% 13.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 18.0% 0.2% 18.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 7.3% 1.1% 6.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 3.2% 1.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.8% 2.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 2.4% 0.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 1.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.2% 1.0 3.8 96.2
2nd Round 7.4% 0.1 92.6 7.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0