Big Sky
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
112 Montana 38.3%   15   3 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 9 15 - 5 +4.4      +3.4 89 +1.0 137 68.0 233 +2.3 145 0.0 1
138 Northern Colorado 23.6%   4 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 9 14 - 6 +2.0      +2.7 103 -0.7 187 75.5 68 +12.7 42 0.0 1
154 Weber St. 16.4%   3 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 7 +0.5      +0.3 164 +0.2 163 79.0 29 +0.9 161 0.0 1
227 Sacramento St. 4.7%   3 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 10 -4.1      -3.9 284 -0.1 169 73.0 111 -0.3 176 0.0 1
234 Portland St. 4.2%   2 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 11 -4.5      -2.5 244 -2.0 232 83.6 8 -3.2 207 0.0 1
244 Idaho St. 3.7%   2 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 11 -5.0      +0.4 158 -5.4 313 69.3 198 -0.5 179 0.0 1
249 Eastern Washington 3.2%   1 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 20 9 - 11 -5.1      -3.1 257 -2.0 230 69.1 202 -11.5 304 0.0 1
251 Southern Utah 3.2%   2 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 11 -5.3      -2.0 238 -3.3 271 76.1 59 -2.6 195 0.0 1
285 Idaho 1.7%   1 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -6.9      -1.9 235 -5.0 307 64.3 313 -12.8 315 0.0 1
296 Montana St. 1.2%   2 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 13 -7.5      -0.8 195 -6.7 337 72.3 122 -4.8 229 0.0 1
319 Northern Arizona 0.5%   2 - 5 0 - 0 8 - 22 6 - 14 -9.7      -3.5 269 -6.2 329 74.3 89 -8.6 274 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Montana 1.9 53.6 23.3 11.4 5.6 3.0 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northern Colorado 2.7 30.2 26.5 17.4 10.2 6.2 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2
Weber St. 3.3 18.9 23.0 20.4 13.8 9.0 5.9 3.8 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.3
Sacramento St. 5.7 4.0 7.8 10.9 13.4 13.3 12.3 11.0 9.5 7.9 6.1 3.9
Portland St. 6.0 3.3 6.9 10.0 12.3 12.8 12.4 11.4 10.1 8.9 7.0 4.8
Idaho St. 6.3 2.8 5.7 9.0 11.3 12.2 12.3 11.7 11.1 9.8 8.1 6.0
Eastern Washington 6.3 2.2 5.1 8.4 11.3 12.5 13.0 12.5 11.6 9.9 8.1 5.4
Southern Utah 6.4 2.4 5.2 8.3 11.0 12.2 12.2 11.9 11.4 10.3 8.7 6.5
Idaho 7.4 1.0 2.6 4.9 7.5 9.4 11.0 12.0 13.2 13.8 13.4 11.2
Montana St. 7.7 0.6 1.9 3.8 6.0 8.3 10.2 12.0 13.8 14.7 15.1 13.5
Northern Arizona 8.8 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.4 6.5 8.6 11.5 15.2 20.0 28.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Montana 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.5 5.6 8.3 11.2 14.4 15.8 15.2 12.2 7.3 2.6
Northern Colorado 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.1 7.4 9.6 12.0 13.4 13.5 12.4 9.7 6.2 2.8 0.8
Weber St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.2 5.1 7.4 10.1 12.0 13.5 13.3 11.9 9.2 6.1 3.2 1.2 0.2
Sacramento St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.4 6.4 8.6 10.6 12.0 11.9 11.5 9.9 7.8 5.5 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Portland St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 5.1 7.3 9.3 11.1 12.0 12.0 10.9 9.2 7.1 4.9 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.9 5.8 8.1 10.3 11.6 12.0 11.7 10.2 8.3 6.2 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.5 5.7 8.5 10.5 12.2 13.0 11.9 10.5 8.2 5.9 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.1 6.1 8.7 10.5 11.8 12.3 11.5 10.0 8.0 5.8 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Idaho 8 - 12 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.2 6.7 9.5 11.5 12.7 12.5 11.5 9.5 7.3 5.1 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Montana St. 7 - 13 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.0 7.8 10.6 12.6 13.5 12.7 10.9 8.5 6.2 4.0 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 6 - 14 0.7 2.8 6.2 10.1 12.7 14.2 13.8 12.1 9.6 7.1 4.9 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana 53.6% 41.9 10.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Colorado 30.2% 21.0 7.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 18.9% 12.0 5.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 4.0% 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 3.3% 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 2.8% 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 2.2% 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Montana St. 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana 38.3% 37.9% 0.4% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.4 7.7 11.3 10.2 5.2 0.9 61.7 0.7%
Northern Colorado 23.6% 23.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 6.7 6.9 4.3 0.9 76.4 0.3%
Weber St. 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 4.9 5.6 2.4 83.6 0.0%
Sacramento St. 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.9 95.3 0.0%
Portland St. 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.0 95.8 0.0%
Idaho St. 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.4 96.3 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 96.8 0.0%
Southern Utah 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 96.8 0.0%
Idaho 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 98.3 0.0%
Montana St. 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 98.8 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Montana 38.3% 0.6% 38.0% 6.8% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 23.6% 0.4% 23.4% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 16.4% 0.8% 16.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 4.7% 0.9% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 4.2% 1.0% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 3.7% 0.7% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.2% 1.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 3.2% 0.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 1.7% 1.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.7 0.0
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 96.0 0.3
2nd Round 12.0% 0.1 88.0 11.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0