Big Ten
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
3 Michigan 99.4%   1   10 - 0 2 - 0 26 - 5 15 - 5 +18.9      +8.0 19 +10.9 1 61.5 343 +28.3 2 +30.5 1
5 Michigan St. 98.3%   1   8 - 2 2 - 0 23 - 8 14 - 6 +18.3      +11.3 5 +7.0 26 70.5 165 +19.4 17 +27.1 4
13 Wisconsin 91.9%   4   8 - 2 2 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 7 +15.2      +6.8 27 +8.3 11 59.9 351 +18.9 18 +29.3 2
14 Ohio St. 88.4%   4   8 - 1 2 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 7 +14.7      +6.9 26 +7.8 15 66.2 275 +20.1 15 +26.2 5
16 Nebraska 78.8%   5   8 - 2 1 - 1 20 - 10 11 - 9 +14.2      +8.2 17 +6.0 34 68.2 228 +14.8 29 +7.1 9
20 Purdue 76.9%   5   6 - 4 1 - 1 18 - 13 11 - 9 +13.3      +8.7 15 +4.6 56 66.8 258 +11.0 58 +15.7 6
24 Indiana 76.3%   6   8 - 2 2 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +13.0      +5.7 41 +7.3 21 70.9 155 +17.9 21 +28.8 3
30 Maryland 65.5%   6   8 - 2 1 - 1 19 - 12 10 - 10 +12.4      +5.8 38 +6.6 28 68.4 221 +13.1 37 +11.2 8
39 Iowa 45.3%   11   7 - 2 0 - 2 19 - 12 8 - 12 +11.1      +8.9 13 +2.2 106 74.8 80 +15.5 26 -3.5 12
48 Northwestern 23.6%   7 - 3 0 - 2 17 - 14 8 - 12 +9.7      +4.1 72 +5.6 37 66.2 276 +9.2 75 -2.9 11
54 Penn St. 26.4%   5 - 4 0 - 2 15 - 16 7 - 13 +9.1      +1.4 133 +7.7 17 67.7 242 +6.4 105 -6.7 14
59 Minnesota 27.9%   8 - 2 1 - 1 18 - 13 8 - 12 +8.6      +4.7 57 +3.9 73 71.9 130 +15.4 27 +14.4 7
91 Illinois 2.2%   3 - 7 0 - 2 10 - 21 5 - 15 +5.7      +3.2 94 +2.5 95 74.6 84 -1.0 186 -5.0 13
98 Rutgers 3.2%   5 - 4 0 - 2 12 - 18 5 - 15 +5.3      -1.2 211 +6.5 29 66.7 261 +4.4 123 -2.3 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Michigan 2.3 45.6 22.1 12.7 7.9 4.9 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 2.9 32.4 23.0 15.1 10.3 7.1 5.0 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 4.0 15.6 17.5 16.8 13.8 11.1 8.4 6.0 4.1 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Ohio St. 4.5 12.1 15.3 15.5 14.1 12.0 9.6 7.3 5.4 3.7 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1
Nebraska 5.7 5.3 9.1 11.4 12.6 12.7 11.7 10.2 8.5 6.5 5.1 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.4
Purdue 6.2 3.7 7.4 9.8 11.3 12.2 11.9 11.3 9.8 8.0 5.9 4.4 2.8 1.3 0.4
Indiana 5.5 6.8 9.6 11.7 12.5 12.7 11.8 10.1 8.4 6.3 4.4 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.3
Maryland 7.3 2.0 4.1 6.2 8.1 9.7 11.0 11.5 11.5 10.6 9.1 7.3 4.9 2.9 1.1
Iowa 8.7 0.7 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.4 8.1 9.8 10.8 11.7 11.6 11.1 9.7 6.6 3.7
Northwestern 9.3 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 4.6 6.7 8.6 10.5 12.0 12.8 12.8 11.6 8.9 5.5
Penn St. 10.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.2 4.8 6.4 8.4 10.6 12.6 14.0 14.3 12.3 9.1
Minnesota 9.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.4 5.0 6.8 8.9 10.7 12.3 12.8 12.7 11.1 8.2 4.5
Illinois 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.9 5.9 8.3 11.4 15.9 23.3 25.4
Rutgers 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.8 5.6 7.8 10.9 15.2 22.3 28.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.0 6.6 9.9 13.5 16.0 16.2 14.1 9.6 4.8 1.3
Michigan St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.7 6.4 9.4 12.5 15.1 15.7 14.2 10.5 6.1 2.5 0.5
Wisconsin 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 4.9 7.8 10.9 13.3 14.7 14.5 12.0 8.5 5.1 2.4 0.8 0.1
Ohio St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.7 6.3 9.4 12.3 14.1 14.6 13.0 10.4 6.9 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.1
Nebraska 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.5 7.2 10.2 12.7 14.1 14.2 12.4 9.4 6.0 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1
Purdue 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.7 8.5 11.8 14.0 14.5 13.3 10.8 7.7 4.7 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Indiana 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.1 6.8 9.8 12.6 14.2 14.0 12.6 9.7 6.6 3.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Maryland 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.0 9.1 12.0 13.9 14.0 12.9 10.6 7.4 4.5 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Iowa 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.1 7.1 10.3 12.7 14.0 13.6 12.0 9.4 6.5 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 8 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.6 9.0 12.2 14.4 14.8 13.3 10.8 7.5 4.4 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 7 - 13 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.9 8.1 11.5 14.2 15.1 13.5 11.0 8.1 5.3 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Minnesota 8 - 12 0.1 0.7 2.3 5.0 8.5 12.1 14.5 14.9 13.7 11.0 7.8 4.8 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois 5 - 15 0.8 3.4 7.6 12.5 15.4 15.9 14.4 11.5 8.0 5.1 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 5 - 15 1.1 4.2 8.7 12.9 15.3 15.4 13.9 10.9 7.6 4.7 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 45.6% 33.0 9.8 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 32.4% 21.7 8.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 15.6% 9.1 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 12.1% 6.7 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 5.3% 2.5 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Purdue 3.7% 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indiana 6.8% 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Maryland 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iowa 0.7% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Illinois 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 99.4% 27.8% 71.6% 1   49.4 24.0 11.1 5.9 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 99.2%
Michigan St. 98.3% 23.6% 74.7% 1   27.0 25.9 17.6 10.0 6.7 4.4 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 97.8%
Wisconsin 91.9% 10.8% 81.1% 4   6.7 13.8 16.2 13.5 11.4 9.1 6.8 5.5 3.5 2.6 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.1 90.9%
Ohio St. 88.4% 9.4% 79.0% 4   5.6 10.8 13.2 11.8 11.6 9.9 7.6 6.4 4.5 3.4 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.6 87.2%
Nebraska 78.8% 7.4% 71.4% 5   2.6 6.4 9.4 9.4 10.2 10.2 8.2 7.3 5.7 4.1 3.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 21.2 77.1%
Purdue 76.9% 5.6% 71.3% 5   1.3 4.9 9.0 10.8 10.4 10.2 8.3 6.7 5.2 4.2 3.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 23.1 75.5%
Indiana 76.3% 5.6% 70.6% 6   1.8 5.1 7.8 8.6 10.1 9.8 8.5 7.9 6.2 4.7 3.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 23.7 74.9%
Maryland 65.5% 3.9% 61.6% 6   0.8 3.2 5.9 7.6 8.5 8.5 7.4 6.5 5.0 4.6 4.3 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 34.5 64.1%
Iowa 45.3% 2.4% 43.0% 11   0.2 0.9 2.1 3.1 4.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.2 4.6 4.4 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 54.7 44.0%
Northwestern 23.6% 1.2% 22.3% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.4 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 76.4 22.6%
Penn St. 26.4% 1.0% 25.4% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.7 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 73.6 25.7%
Minnesota 27.9% 0.9% 27.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.6 3.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 72.1 27.2%
Illinois 2.2% 0.1% 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8 2.0%
Rutgers 3.2% 0.1% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.8 3.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Michigan 99.4% 0.2% 99.3% 92.7% 68.0% 44.3% 26.1% 14.3% 7.4%
Michigan St. 98.3% 0.5% 98.1% 88.2% 62.1% 38.0% 21.3% 11.2% 5.6%
Wisconsin 91.9% 1.9% 91.1% 71.0% 40.6% 20.0% 9.1% 4.0% 1.6%
Ohio St. 88.4% 2.5% 87.3% 65.8% 36.2% 17.4% 7.9% 3.4% 1.4%
Nebraska 78.8% 3.6% 77.3% 55.6% 28.7% 13.4% 6.0% 2.6% 1.0%
Purdue 76.9% 4.2% 75.1% 51.8% 25.6% 11.0% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7%
Indiana 76.3% 3.8% 74.5% 50.1% 23.6% 10.1% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6%
Maryland 65.5% 5.3% 63.2% 41.4% 19.0% 7.8% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4%
Iowa 45.3% 5.9% 42.8% 25.3% 10.3% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Northwestern 23.6% 4.5% 21.6% 11.5% 4.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Penn St. 26.4% 5.5% 23.8% 12.5% 4.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Minnesota 27.9% 4.5% 25.6% 12.7% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Illinois 2.2% 0.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 3.2% 1.0% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.0 0.1 0.9 7.3 22.8 34.8 24.9 8.1 1.1 0.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.8 0.1 1.5 9.6 26.4 34.9 21.1 5.8 0.6 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.8 0.0 0.3 2.6 11.3 25.8 31.6 20.4 6.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.5% 3.3 0.5 5.4 19.5 33.2 27.4 11.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 90.6% 1.7 9.4 33.5 37.6 16.4 3.0 0.2 0.0
Final Four 65.6% 0.9 34.4 47.6 16.2 1.7 0.0
Final Game 38.0% 0.4 62.0 34.9 3.1
Champion 19.1% 0.2 80.9 19.1