Big Ten
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
4 Michigan St. 100.0%   2   21 - 5 12 - 3 25 - 6 16 - 4 +20.2      +10.5 8 +9.8 7 69.8 156 +20.1 11 +21.3 2
8 Michigan 100.0%   2   23 - 3 12 - 3 26 - 5 15 - 5 +17.5      +6.0 36 +11.5 3 63.3 318 +21.6 8 +20.0 3
10 Purdue 100.0%   3   18 - 7 11 - 3 22 - 9 15 - 5 +16.6      +11.8 4 +4.8 52 65.6 272 +17.7 17 +22.2 1
15 Wisconsin 100.0%   5   18 - 8 10 - 5 21 - 10 13 - 7 +15.5      +5.2 46 +10.3 5 60.1 348 +15.8 28 +17.1 5
21 Maryland 99.9%   6   19 - 7 10 - 5 22 - 9 13 - 7 +14.5      +7.3 23 +7.3 22 66.4 248 +16.2 23 +17.8 4
26 Iowa 99.8%   6   20 - 5 9 - 5 23 - 8 12 - 8 +12.9      +10.9 6 +2.0 121 73.9 67 +18.2 15 +16.2 6
35 Nebraska 32.6%   14 - 11 5 - 10 16 - 14 7 - 13 +11.5      +5.0 48 +6.5 27 66.9 237 +9.5 60 +6.2 11
41 Ohio St. 63.3%   11   16 - 9 6 - 8 19 - 12 9 - 11 +10.8      +3.9 65 +6.9 25 65.1 287 +11.5 44 +9.8 8
43 Minnesota 74.4%   9   17 - 9 7 - 8 19 - 12 9 - 11 +9.7      +5.3 43 +4.4 58 69.1 178 +12.3 34 +11.1 7
45 Indiana 14.3%   13 - 12 4 - 10 15 - 16 6 - 14 +9.5      +3.8 71 +5.7 38 67.7 211 +8.3 69 +5.5 12
56 Illinois 3.3%   10 - 16 6 - 9 12 - 19 8 - 12 +8.2      +3.6 77 +4.6 54 75.9 45 +6.2 91 +9.4 9
57 Penn St. 0.2%   9 - 16 2 - 12 11 - 20 4 - 16 +8.0      +2.2 114 +5.8 35 68.4 193 +4.3 113 +0.6 14
63 Northwestern 0.8%   12 - 13 3 - 11 14 - 17 5 - 15 +7.4      +0.3 169 +7.1 24 65.4 281 +5.0 105 +2.6 13
90 Rutgers 0.6%   12 - 13 5 - 10 13 - 17 6 - 14 +5.5      +0.3 172 +5.2 47 67.8 205 +6.6 82 +6.9 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Michigan St. 1.5 67.3 20.4 10.1 1.8 0.3 0.0
Michigan 2.4 29.9 25.8 28.2 10.9 4.6 0.6
Purdue 1.9 41.2 37.5 13.7 5.4 1.9 0.3 0.0
Wisconsin 3.9 1.6 11.1 23.1 32.4 21.7 9.9 0.1 0.0
Maryland 4.2 1.5 8.4 18.0 25.8 29.3 16.4 0.6 0.0 0.0
Iowa 5.0 0.3 3.0 8.8 18.7 25.0 42.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
Nebraska 10.1 0.1 4.3 9.7 17.5 29.6 22.4 11.4 4.2 0.7
Ohio St. 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.8 40.2 27.6 17.4 5.9 2.2 0.9 0.1
Minnesota 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 5.0 50.1 26.4 13.0 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Indiana 10.6 0.1 3.9 7.8 12.9 21.3 21.3 20.0 10.3 2.4
Illinois 8.2 0.0 1.4 32.4 30.0 22.6 8.5 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.0
Penn St. 12.9 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.6 8.0 13.0 24.7 47.0
Northwestern 12.1 0.0 1.3 2.5 4.5 7.9 12.5 19.6 33.1 18.5
Rutgers 10.7 0.1 2.6 6.1 12.0 23.6 25.2 20.2 8.6 1.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan St. 16 - 4 0.1 1.1 8.0 26.2 40.9 23.7
Michigan 15 - 5 1.6 10.7 27.3 34.2 21.0 5.2
Purdue 15 - 5 0.1 1.2 6.1 17.8 30.6 30.4 13.9
Wisconsin 13 - 7 0.4 4.1 15.4 31.1 33.5 15.5
Maryland 13 - 7 0.9 6.8 21.4 33.9 27.5 9.5
Iowa 12 - 8 0.7 5.7 18.3 30.4 28.2 13.9 2.9
Nebraska 7 - 13 9.6 29.4 35.2 20.0 5.2 0.5
Ohio St. 9 - 11 2.9 14.1 28.2 30.1 18.2 5.7 0.8
Minnesota 9 - 11 9.3 27.4 33.3 21.5 7.4 1.1
Indiana 6 - 14 4.2 18.7 31.2 27.4 13.9 4.0 0.5
Illinois 8 - 12 4.1 17.7 33.0 30.3 13.1 1.8
Penn St. 4 - 16 4.5 17.6 29.4 28.1 15.3 4.6 0.6
Northwestern 5 - 15 7.2 21.8 30.8 24.3 12.0 3.4 0.4
Rutgers 6 - 14 16.8 37.7 31.7 11.8 1.9 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan St. 67.3% 39.2 21.2 5.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
Michigan 29.9% 11.8 11.6 5.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
Purdue 41.2% 15.3 19.5 5.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin 1.6% 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Maryland 1.5% 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Iowa 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska
Ohio St.
Minnesota
Indiana
Illinois
Penn St.
Northwestern
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan St. 100.0% 37.6% 62.4% 2   27.7 49.7 18.6 3.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 2   16.0 48.8 26.5 7.0 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 3   3.3 21.6 34.9 23.4 11.9 4.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Wisconsin 100.0% 10.0% 89.9% 5   0.4 3.3 11.6 20.9 26.1 23.0 11.1 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Maryland 99.9% 7.4% 92.5% 6   0.3 2.0 8.7 18.3 25.6 24.8 14.0 4.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Iowa 99.8% 4.0% 95.8% 6   0.1 1.0 6.1 16.9 26.8 25.6 15.4 5.6 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8%
Nebraska 32.6% 1.2% 31.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.3 6.1 8.6 7.2 2.4 0.2 0.0 67.4 31.8%
Ohio St. 63.3% 1.2% 62.1% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.5 8.9 10.8 11.7 13.0 8.5 2.4 0.2 36.7 62.8%
Minnesota 74.4% 0.8% 73.5% 9   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 10.5 13.9 14.3 12.9 11.2 5.7 1.2 0.0 25.6 74.2%
Indiana 14.3% 0.5% 13.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.6 3.9 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 85.7 13.8%
Illinois 3.3% 0.3% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 96.7 2.9%
Penn St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.1%
Northwestern 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.2 0.7%
Rutgers 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.4 0.5%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.2% 75.3% 50.7% 27.8% 14.4% 6.7%
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.0% 64.4% 35.7% 15.7% 6.4% 2.4%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 88.7% 56.2% 25.9% 10.7% 4.1% 1.5%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 78.4% 42.1% 16.1% 6.3% 2.2% 0.7%
Maryland 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 73.9% 36.0% 12.7% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4%
Iowa 99.8% 0.1% 99.7% 67.7% 28.3% 8.5% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Nebraska 32.6% 15.2% 26.3% 12.0% 3.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Ohio St. 63.3% 19.3% 54.2% 24.3% 5.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Minnesota 74.4% 13.6% 67.1% 28.2% 5.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Indiana 14.3% 7.1% 10.8% 4.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 3.3% 1.3% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.9 0.0 3.9 27.5 46.4 20.2 2.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.6 0.0 7.8 36.8 42.1 12.5 0.8 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.7 0.0 0.2 1.8 10.5 28.5 37.1 18.4 3.3 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.5% 3.2 0.5 5.3 20.4 35.1 27.6 9.6 1.4 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 88.7% 1.5 11.3 38.4 36.3 12.3 1.6 0.1 0.0
Final Four 56.5% 0.7 43.5 44.7 11.0 0.8 0.0
Final Game 28.1% 0.3 71.9 26.6 1.5
Champion 11.9% 0.1 88.1 11.9