Big West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
109 UC Irvine 43.7%   14   20 - 5 9 - 1 25 - 6 14 - 2 +4.3      -0.5 190 +4.7 52 64.4 302 +10.5 52 +12.7 1
161 Cal St. Fullerton 16.1%   9 - 13 7 - 3 13 - 15 11 - 5 +0.1      -2.4 248 +2.5 106 74.0 65 -1.4 184 +3.0 2
164 UC Santa Barbara 13.9%   15 - 7 6 - 4 19 - 9 10 - 6 -0.2      +0.5 162 -0.7 192 61.9 336 +1.7 147 -0.7 4
172 Hawaii 12.8%   13 - 9 6 - 4 17 - 11 10 - 6 -0.5      -1.0 208 +0.5 161 66.2 252 +0.5 165 -0.3 3
204 UC Davis 6.4%   7 - 14 5 - 4 11 - 17 9 - 7 -2.7      -3.6 276 +0.9 145 65.8 270 -4.5 228 -1.3 5
216 Long Beach St. 4.5%   7 - 17 3 - 7 11 - 19 7 - 9 -3.4      -1.3 216 -2.1 232 77.7 25 -5.3 241 -7.3 7
272 Cal St. Northridge 1.9%   9 - 15 4 - 5 11 - 20 6 - 10 -6.4      +0.5 160 -6.9 338 74.0 64 -6.3 259 -4.9 6
304 UC Riverside 0.8%   6 - 17 3 - 7 8 - 21 5 - 11 -8.3      -2.6 254 -5.7 323 62.2 331 -9.6 303 -9.9 8
327 Cal Poly 0.0%   3 - 18 1 - 9 4 - 24 2 - 14 -11.3      -6.7 324 -4.6 296 63.0 324 -16.2 337 -19.1 9






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
UC Irvine 1.0 99.1 0.8 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 2.5 3.3 65.1 18.8 8.5 3.9 0.3 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 3.3 1.1 26.3 33.0 25.3 11.3 2.5 0.5 0.0
Hawaii 3.3 0.4 26.2 33.4 24.2 13.6 2.0 0.2 0.0
UC Davis 4.2 0.3 12.6 18.3 24.5 30.1 10.3 3.6 0.3
Long Beach St. 6.1 0.0 1.2 5.9 17.2 40.2 27.9 7.5 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 6.1 0.0 0.6 2.3 6.5 15.3 34.3 34.7 6.4 0.0
UC Riverside 7.5 0.0 0.4 1.9 9.1 21.4 66.1 1.1
Cal Poly 8.9 0.0 0.4 6.0 93.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
UC Irvine 14 - 2 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.7 20.9 40.3 32.0
Cal St. Fullerton 11 - 5 0.2 2.7 11.4 25.5 32.1 21.6 6.4
UC Santa Barbara 10 - 6 0.5 3.9 14.1 27.1 31.3 18.7 4.4
Hawaii 10 - 6 0.3 3.1 13.5 28.0 32.0 18.8 4.3
UC Davis 9 - 7 0.8 5.2 15.2 25.6 26.4 18.4 7.2 1.3
Long Beach St. 7 - 9 0.4 3.8 14.2 28.2 32.4 17.6 3.5
Cal St. Northridge 6 - 10 4.4 17.9 29.6 27.1 15.3 4.8 0.9 0.1
UC Riverside 5 - 11 18.5 34.6 28.4 13.7 4.1 0.8 0.1
Cal Poly 2 - 14 40.1 38.4 16.8 4.1 0.6 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 99.1% 95.3 3.4 0.3 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 3.3% 0.6 2.4 0.2 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 1.1% 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0
Hawaii 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 0.3% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Long Beach St.
Cal St. Northridge 0.0% 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside
Cal Poly


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 43.7% 43.6% 0.1% 14   0.0 0.0 0.2 2.4 12.1 20.1 8.4 0.5 0.0 56.3 0.2%
Cal St. Fullerton 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.1 8.8 5.0 83.9 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 3.9 8.1 1.3 86.1 0.0%
Hawaii 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.5 8.0 1.9 87.2 0.0%
UC Davis 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.7 93.6 0.0%
Long Beach St. 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 4.1 95.5 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.9 98.1 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
UC Irvine 43.7% 0.1% 43.6% 6.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 16.1% 1.0% 15.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 13.9% 0.1% 13.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 12.8% 0.2% 12.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 6.4% 2.7% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 4.5% 3.4% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.9% 1.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 96.3% 1.0 3.7 96.3 0.0
2nd Round 7.7% 0.1 92.3 7.7
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0