Big West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
97 UC Irvine 44.8%   14   8 - 2 0 - 0 24 - 7 13 - 3 +5.3      +0.2 164 +5.1 48 64.9 304 +12.3 46 0.0 1
147 UC Santa Barbara 17.7%   6 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 9 10 - 6 +1.0      -0.7 190 +1.7 120 63.8 322 +4.9 117 0.0 1
167 Cal St. Fullerton 12.6%   1 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 16 10 - 6 -0.5      -2.9 252 +2.4 100 73.6 100 -11.3 300 0.0 1
185 Hawaii 9.9%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 12 9 - 7 -1.4      -1.2 211 -0.3 175 65.0 302 -0.6 179 0.0 1
197 Long Beach St. 7.7%   2 - 9 0 - 0 12 - 18 9 - 7 -2.2      -1.7 226 -0.5 179 78.7 31 -5.6 238 0.0 1
223 UC Davis 5.3%   2 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 8 -3.6      -6.6 327 +3.0 84 65.8 282 -9.3 281 0.0 1
293 UC Riverside 1.4%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 10 -7.3      -4.6 298 -2.7 256 63.0 329 -9.4 283 0.0 1
309 Cal Poly 0.9%   2 - 5 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 11 -8.6      -4.3 291 -4.3 293 64.7 309 -8.0 268 0.0 1
324 Cal St. Northridge 0.4%   2 - 6 0 - 0 7 - 23 4 - 12 -10.7      -4.0 283 -6.8 339 78.1 35 -9.8 286 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
UC Irvine 1.7 62.9 20.4 9.0 4.4 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 3.0 21.6 25.8 19.3 13.8 9.4 5.7 2.9 1.2 0.3
Cal St. Fullerton 3.6 13.9 20.1 19.8 16.7 12.9 8.7 4.9 2.3 0.7
Hawaii 4.0 10.5 16.8 17.9 17.0 14.7 11.1 6.9 3.7 1.3
Long Beach St. 4.3 7.0 13.6 17.1 18.3 16.8 13.4 8.2 4.1 1.4
UC Davis 4.9 4.4 9.2 13.1 15.8 17.3 17.2 12.5 7.5 3.1
UC Riverside 6.5 0.7 2.3 4.5 7.5 11.8 16.9 22.0 20.8 13.6
Cal Poly 7.0 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.3 8.8 14.0 20.6 25.4 21.3
Cal St. Northridge 7.7 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.8 9.1 16.4 26.2 39.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
UC Irvine 13 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.2 7.8 12.4 17.6 19.9 18.2 12.1 4.3
UC Santa Barbara 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.5 6.3 9.8 13.3 15.6 16.1 14.2 10.1 5.6 2.2 0.4
Cal St. Fullerton 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.2 6.0 9.3 12.9 15.0 15.7 14.2 10.5 6.5 3.2 1.1 0.2
Hawaii 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.9 7.9 11.3 14.0 15.0 14.5 12.1 8.3 4.9 2.2 0.7 0.1
Long Beach St. 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.9 9.5 13.3 15.7 15.9 14.1 10.1 6.2 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.0
UC Davis 8 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.7 5.7 9.3 12.8 15.0 15.4 13.7 10.7 7.0 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 6 - 10 0.5 2.2 5.8 10.5 14.5 16.5 16.1 13.3 9.3 5.9 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 5 - 11 1.1 4.3 9.3 13.9 16.6 16.7 13.9 10.3 6.8 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 4 - 12 3.2 9.4 15.6 18.4 17.8 14.2 10.0 5.8 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 62.9% 49.0 11.5 2.1 0.3 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 21.6% 13.0 6.7 1.6 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 13.9% 7.8 4.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
Hawaii 10.5% 5.7 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
Long Beach St. 7.0% 3.5 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
UC Davis 4.4% 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 44.8% 44.2% 0.5% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.1 11.0 15.6 10.7 3.5 0.3 55.2 1.0%
UC Santa Barbara 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.1 6.4 3.0 82.3 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.7 6.4 87.4 0.0%
Hawaii 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 5.2 90.1 0.0%
Long Beach St. 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 4.5 92.3 0.0%
UC Davis 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.0 94.7 0.0%
UC Riverside 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.3 98.6 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
UC Irvine 44.8% 0.5% 44.5% 8.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 17.7% 1.1% 17.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 12.6% 3.1% 11.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 9.9% 2.7% 8.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 7.7% 2.5% 6.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 5.3% 2.7% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.4 0.6
1st Round 94.3% 0.9 5.7 94.0 0.3
2nd Round 11.6% 0.1 88.4 11.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0