Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
88 Northeastern 38.4%   13   5 - 5 0 - 0 20 - 10 14 - 4 +5.9      +6.6 31 -0.7 188 65.4 294 +5.5 113 0.0 1
118 Hofstra 24.1%   8 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 5 +3.8      +6.1 38 -2.3 242 68.1 228 +5.4 114 0.0 1
122 College of Charleston 23.0%   7 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 6 +3.5      +1.8 125 +1.7 121 62.5 334 +8.7 78 0.0 1
198 William & Mary 4.7%   3 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 9 -2.2      +3.5 85 -5.7 322 69.9 183 -4.3 224 0.0 1
218 Delaware 3.3%   6 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 10 -3.3      +2.2 115 -5.4 314 62.4 338 +2.8 143 0.0 1
219 UNC Wilmington 3.3%   3 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 -3.3      +1.1 142 -4.3 294 76.9 45 -6.1 250 0.0 1
233 James Madison 2.1%   5 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -4.5      -3.2 259 -1.3 207 65.9 280 -3.1 203 0.0 1
253 Drexel 1.6%   4 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 11 -5.2      +1.1 138 -6.4 332 71.3 144 -5.1 233 0.0 1
284 Towson 0.8%   2 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 12 -6.8      -3.9 281 -3.0 265 65.0 300 -11.2 299 0.0 1
305 Elon 0.5%   1 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -8.1      -4.3 290 -3.8 286 71.2 145 -15.7 331 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northeastern 1.9 52.2 25.0 13.3 5.4 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 2.5 30.5 28.5 20.6 10.3 5.2 2.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
College of Charleston 2.6 27.7 27.3 21.5 11.4 5.9 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1
William & Mary 5.1 3.6 7.7 12.8 18.1 16.7 13.9 11.0 8.1 5.2 2.9
Delaware 5.7 2.3 5.5 9.8 14.8 15.7 15.1 13.3 10.8 7.9 4.8
UNC Wilmington 5.7 2.3 5.3 9.7 15.1 16.0 15.1 13.0 10.8 8.0 4.7
James Madison 6.3 1.2 3.2 6.8 11.5 14.2 15.1 15.0 14.0 11.5 7.6
Drexel 6.7 0.8 2.4 5.3 9.4 12.5 14.2 15.5 15.3 14.0 10.5
Towson 7.5 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.7 8.6 11.3 14.5 17.0 19.4 19.3
Elon 8.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.8 6.2 8.9 12.1 15.9 21.3 29.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northeastern 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.1 7.1 11.2 15.1 17.8 17.7 13.6 7.6 2.2
Hofstra 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 5.0 8.3 11.7 15.0 16.7 15.4 12.3 7.3 3.0 0.7
College of Charleston 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.8 9.0 12.6 14.9 16.0 14.7 11.1 6.5 2.7 0.5
William & Mary 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.2 8.3 11.6 13.8 14.8 13.5 11.3 7.8 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Delaware 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.3 4.6 7.6 11.0 13.4 14.4 13.7 11.7 8.9 5.8 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.5 7.7 10.9 13.3 14.4 14.0 11.8 8.8 5.8 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
James Madison 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.8 6.9 10.5 13.3 14.8 14.4 12.2 9.4 6.1 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Drexel 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.2 8.8 12.2 14.3 14.8 13.5 10.9 7.7 4.7 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Towson 6 - 12 0.5 2.0 5.2 9.0 12.9 15.1 15.3 13.4 10.5 7.3 4.5 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Elon 5 - 13 1.0 3.9 8.2 12.5 15.3 15.8 14.1 11.2 7.9 5.0 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northeastern 52.2% 39.0 11.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 30.5% 20.1 8.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
College of Charleston 27.7% 17.8 8.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 3.6% 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Delaware 2.3% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 2.3% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
James Madison 1.2% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Drexel 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Towson 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Elon 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northeastern 38.4% 37.2% 1.2% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 4.3 11.1 12.3 7.2 2.1 0.2 61.6 1.8%
Hofstra 24.1% 23.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.1 7.5 7.5 3.4 0.5 75.9 0.3%
College of Charleston 23.0% 22.6% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.8 7.1 6.2 2.6 0.4 77.0 0.6%
William & Mary 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 1.6 95.3 0.0%
Delaware 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 0.8 96.7 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.6 96.7 0.0%
James Madison 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 97.9 0.0%
Drexel 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 98.4 0.0%
Towson 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.2 0.0%
Elon 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Northeastern 38.4% 1.0% 37.9% 8.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 24.1% 0.3% 24.0% 3.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 23.0% 0.5% 22.8% 3.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 4.7% 0.7% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 3.3% 0.3% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 3.3% 0.8% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 2.1% 0.6% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 1.6% 0.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.1 1.9 0.0
1st Round 98.1% 1.0 1.9 97.1 1.0 0.0
2nd Round 16.0% 0.2 84.0 15.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2 0.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0