Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
74 Hofstra 47.0%   13   21 - 4 12 - 1 25 - 5 16 - 2 +6.6      +8.3 19 -1.7 221 69.2 173 +11.2 46 +15.2 1
94 Northeastern 30.0%   16 - 9 10 - 3 20 - 10 14 - 4 +5.2      +4.2 58 +1.0 143 66.6 245 +5.5 102 +5.4 2
128 College of Charleston 17.0%   19 - 7 9 - 5 22 - 8 12 - 6 +3.0      +2.8 97 +0.2 171 64.5 299 +5.8 97 +1.3 3
208 William & Mary 1.7%   8 - 16 5 - 8 11 - 18 8 - 10 -2.8      +0.5 166 -3.2 255 70.3 139 -5.6 246 -5.7 6
235 Drexel 1.4%   11 - 15 6 - 8 13 - 17 8 - 10 -4.5      +1.0 145 -5.5 316 72.2 98 -4.5 226 -5.0 5
246 Delaware 1.7%   14 - 11 8 - 6 15 - 14 9 - 9 -5.0      -0.1 182 -4.9 306 62.0 334 -1.9 196 -0.9 4
262 James Madison 0.6%   9 - 15 4 - 9 11 - 18 6 - 12 -5.8      -1.9 231 -4.0 277 64.3 304 -6.3 260 -8.1 9
264 Towson 0.9%   8 - 17 5 - 8 10 - 20 7 - 11 -6.0      -3.1 264 -2.9 248 60.5 345 -7.5 278 -5.7 7
268 UNC Wilmington 0.4%   7 - 19 4 - 10 8 - 22 5 - 13 -6.1      +2.0 123 -8.1 345 72.1 103 -9.4 300 -10.0 10
315 Elon 0.1%   6 - 18 4 - 9 8 - 21 6 - 12 -9.3      -5.2 296 -4.2 283 69.0 181 -9.8 304 -7.1 8






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Hofstra 1.0 99.2 0.8 0.0
Northeastern 2.0 5.4 90.5 4.1 0.0
College of Charleston 2.8 0.0 17.3 81.5 1.1 0.0
William & Mary 8.6 0.2 2.4 6.7 11.0 17.6 26.7 35.3
Drexel 5.1 0.3 22.3 48.6 21.9 6.0 0.9 0.0
Delaware 4.0 0.2 6.2 86.1 7.3 0.1
James Madison 6.9 1.3 10.0 27.1 30.4 19.8 8.7 2.8
Towson 5.8 0.0 7.3 38.2 32.8 14.7 5.3 1.5 0.2
UNC Wilmington 8.2 0.1 1.9 8.7 18.0 28.0 28.0 15.4
Elon 7.5 0.0 1.0 8.4 18.3 21.4 22.8 18.4 9.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Hofstra 16 - 2 0.0 0.3 2.9 14.3 38.2 44.3
Northeastern 14 - 4 0.1 1.1 7.9 26.5 41.5 22.9
College of Charleston 12 - 6 0.6 6.9 26.8 42.1 23.7
William & Mary 5 - 13 16.0 32.0 29.8 15.5 5.5 1.1 0.1 0.0
Drexel 8 - 10 12.8 36.3 34.6 14.2 2.1
Delaware 9 - 9 22.9 39.9 27.2 8.9 1.1
James Madison 6 - 12 5.5 25.7 39.4 24.9 4.2 0.3
Towson 7 - 11 6.0 26.4 39.5 24.0 3.9 0.2
UNC Wilmington 5 - 13 26.4 44.0 23.7 5.4 0.5
Elon 6 - 12 15.3 33.7 31.3 15.1 4.1 0.4




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hofstra 99.2% 94.6 4.5 0.0
Northeastern 5.4% 0.8 4.5 0.0
College of Charleston 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
William & Mary
Drexel
Delaware
James Madison
Towson
UNC Wilmington
Elon


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hofstra 47.0% 46.1% 0.9% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 9.2 25.2 10.9 0.7 0.0 53.0 1.7%
Northeastern 30.0% 30.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.5 9.1 13.8 5.0 0.4 0.0 70.0 0.0%
College of Charleston 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.3 7.9 5.8 0.8 0.0 83.0 0.0%
William & Mary 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 98.3 0.0%
Drexel 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.0 98.6 0.0%
Delaware 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 0.8 98.3 0.0%
James Madison 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Towson 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Elon 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Hofstra 47.0% 0.9% 46.5% 9.7% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 30.0% 0.0% 30.0% 4.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 17.0% 0.0% 17.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 1.7% 0.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 1.4% 0.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 1.7% 0.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9
1st Round 98.6% 1.0 1.4 98.2 0.4
2nd Round 16.3% 0.2 83.7 16.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0