Conference USA
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
111 Old Dominion 21.6%   13   21 - 6 11 - 3 21 - 6 11 - 3 +4.1      0.0 180 +4.2 65 62.6 327 +7.8 72 +7.3 1
122 Western Kentucky 19.7%   16 - 11 9 - 5 16 - 11 9 - 5 +3.4      +0.4 164 +3.0 93 69.3 168 +4.0 118 +2.9 3
127 Southern Miss 18.0%   14 - 8 9 - 5 14 - 8 9 - 5 +3.2      +1.4 134 +1.8 125 63.9 311 +4.1 116 +3.2 2
134 Texas San Antonio 14.7%   12 - 11 9 - 5 12 - 11 9 - 5 +2.2      +2.1 119 +0.1 172 77.2 29 +1.2 150 +2.9 4
136 Louisiana Tech 7.7%   15 - 10 7 - 7 15 - 10 7 - 7 +2.1      -0.2 187 +2.3 112 65.6 274 +1.3 149 -0.9 9
138 North Texas 8.6%   17 - 7 8 - 6 17 - 7 8 - 6 +1.9      -1.1 207 +3.0 91 64.4 300 +3.3 130 +0.5 6
162 UAB 3.9%   14 - 11 8 - 6 14 - 11 8 - 6 -0.1      +0.5 163 -0.6 188 64.2 305 -0.1 170 +0.9 5
168 Florida Atlantic 3.5%   13 - 11 7 - 7 13 - 11 7 - 7 -0.3      -3.0 265 +2.8 101 69.2 172 +0.3 163 -1.1 10
202 Marshall 1.2%   14 - 13 7 - 7 14 - 13 7 - 7 -2.5      +1.1 141 -3.6 270 84.8 6 +0.2 164 -0.5 7
223 Florida International 0.5%   12 - 11 7 - 7 12 - 11 7 - 7 -3.6      -2.2 244 -1.4 206 93.0 1 -0.7 177 -0.6 8
244 Middle Tennessee 0.4%   6 - 19 5 - 9 6 - 19 5 - 9 -4.9      -3.5 275 -1.4 208 69.6 162 -5.9 255 -4.9 12
254 Rice 0.2%   8 - 17 5 - 9 8 - 17 5 - 9 -5.5      -1.6 228 -3.9 277 74.1 64 -6.0 261 -4.5 11
266 UTEP 0.0%   6 - 17 3 - 11 6 - 17 3 - 11 -5.9      -8.2 338 +2.3 110 69.8 155 -9.0 299 -9.8 14
287 Charlotte 0.0%   6 - 19 3 - 11 6 - 19 3 - 11 -7.2      -6.7 324 -0.4 185 63.2 319 -8.7 293 -9.1 13






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Old Dominion 1.0 100.0
Western Kentucky 2.0 100.0
Southern Miss 2.0 100.0
Texas San Antonio 2.0 100.0
Louisiana Tech 7.0 100.0
North Texas 5.0 100.0
UAB 5.0 100.0
Florida Atlantic 7.0 100.0
Marshall 7.0 100.0
Florida International 7.0 100.0
Middle Tennessee 11.0 100.0
Rice 11.0 100.0
UTEP 13.0 100.0
Charlotte 13.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Old Dominion 11 - 3 100.0
Western Kentucky 9 - 5 100.0
Southern Miss 9 - 5 100.0
Texas San Antonio 9 - 5 100.0
Louisiana Tech 7 - 7 100.0
North Texas 8 - 6 100.0
UAB 8 - 6 100.0
Florida Atlantic 7 - 7 100.0
Marshall 7 - 7 100.0
Florida International 7 - 7 100.0
Middle Tennessee 5 - 9 100.0
Rice 5 - 9 100.0
UTEP 3 - 11 100.0
Charlotte 3 - 11 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Old Dominion 100.0% 100.0
Western Kentucky
Southern Miss
Texas San Antonio
Louisiana Tech
North Texas
UAB
Florida Atlantic
Marshall
Florida International
Middle Tennessee
Rice
UTEP
Charlotte


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Old Dominion 21.6% 21.6% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.9 7.7 11.1 1.8 0.0 78.4 0.0%
Western Kentucky 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 8.3 9.9 0.9 0.0 80.3 0.0%
Southern Miss 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.1 3.8 11.4 2.7 0.0 82.0 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 8.0 5.8 0.1 85.3 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 5.0 1.1 0.0 92.3 0.0%
North Texas 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 5.6 1.3 0.0 91.4 0.0%
UAB 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 2.3 0.1 96.1 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.2 2.0 1.3 0.0 96.5 0.0%
Marshall 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 98.8 0.0%
Florida International 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 99.5 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.7 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Old Dominion 21.6% 0.0% 21.6% 2.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 19.7% 0.0% 19.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 18.0% 0.0% 18.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 14.7% 0.0% 14.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 7.7% 0.0% 7.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 8.6% 0.0% 8.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 3.9% 0.0% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.8 0.0
2nd Round 9.1% 0.1 90.9 9.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0