Conference USA
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
84 Western Kentucky 29.1%   12   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 10 10 - 4 +5.9      +4.4 65 +1.6 124 69.0 207 +6.1 106 0.0 1
106 Old Dominion 20.2%   7 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 8 10 - 4 +4.6      -1.5 217 +6.1 31 62.4 335 +3.9 132 0.0 1
122 North Texas 15.5%   7 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 6 9 - 5 +3.4      +2.4 109 +0.9 142 65.2 297 +14.0 35 0.0 1
131 Marshall 11.5%   5 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 12 9 - 5 +2.7      +1.4 132 +1.3 133 85.6 6 +0.1 173 0.0 1
137 Louisiana Tech 10.9%   5 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 9 9 - 5 +2.2      +3.3 91 -1.0 199 67.3 251 +4.4 122 0.0 1
149 Southern Miss 7.8%   4 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 9 8 - 6 +0.7      +0.7 152 0.0 166 64.0 317 +8.5 80 0.0 1
188 Texas San Antonio 3.2%   2 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 13 7 - 7 -1.5      -1.9 236 +0.4 158 76.7 47 -3.7 218 0.0 1
212 Florida Atlantic 1.8%   5 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 12 6 - 8 -3.0      -1.9 231 -1.1 204 71.2 148 +3.3 136 0.0 1
214 UTEP 1.8%   1 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 13 6 - 8 -3.1      -3.9 282 +0.8 148 68.4 223 -11.2 299 0.0 1
218 UAB 1.6%   5 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 12 6 - 8 -3.2      -1.9 233 -1.3 210 67.7 243 +1.3 157 0.0 1
228 Florida International 1.2%   4 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 12 6 - 8 -4.1      -1.8 226 -2.3 241 98.5 2 +2.1 149 0.0 1
254 Middle Tennessee 0.6%   1 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 18 5 - 9 -5.3      -5.6 314 +0.3 160 68.9 208 -9.0 276 0.0 1
307 Charlotte 0.1%   2 - 5 0 - 0 6 - 18 3 - 11 -8.6      -5.5 311 -3.1 267 65.2 298 -9.1 277 0.0 1
316 Rice 0.1%   2 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 19 3 - 11 -9.3      -4.3 290 -5.0 306 76.3 52 -12.9 316 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Western Kentucky 2.9 33.2 21.2 15.0 10.5 7.3 5.1 3.3 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 3.1 32.4 20.4 14.5 10.3 7.4 5.2 3.7 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Texas 3.7 23.4 18.5 14.8 12.0 9.1 6.9 5.3 3.8 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
Marshall 4.7 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.3 12.0 10.1 8.1 5.9 4.2 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2
Louisiana Tech 4.7 14.0 14.0 13.6 12.5 11.1 9.3 7.8 5.9 4.5 3.2 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2
Southern Miss 5.7 9.5 10.0 10.7 10.8 10.5 10.1 9.1 8.2 6.6 5.4 3.9 2.8 1.7 0.7
Texas San Antonio 7.1 3.5 5.2 7.1 8.4 9.7 10.4 10.9 10.4 9.6 8.5 6.9 5.1 3.0 1.3
Florida Atlantic 8.0 2.1 3.6 4.8 6.2 7.7 8.8 9.9 10.6 10.7 10.4 9.4 7.8 5.4 2.7
UTEP 8.1 1.9 3.1 4.4 6.0 7.4 8.7 9.5 10.6 11.0 10.9 9.9 8.2 5.6 2.8
UAB 7.9 1.7 3.1 4.7 6.4 8.0 9.5 10.6 11.2 11.3 10.2 9.2 7.3 4.7 2.2
Florida International 8.7 1.3 2.3 3.4 4.7 6.2 7.3 8.6 9.9 10.9 11.3 11.3 10.6 7.7 4.5
Middle Tennessee 9.3 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.3 4.8 6.3 8.1 9.8 11.2 12.3 13.0 12.2 9.4 5.7
Charlotte 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.6 8.1 11.5 16.1 22.9 25.1
Rice 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.3 5.0 7.5 10.9 15.8 23.2 28.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Western Kentucky 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.4 10.0 15.5 19.9 20.1 15.3 8.1 2.1
Old Dominion 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.1 6.3 10.6 15.2 18.7 18.8 14.7 8.3 2.3
North Texas 9 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 5.0 8.8 13.2 16.9 18.4 16.2 11.1 5.3 1.3
Marshall 9 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.2 8.2 13.2 17.4 18.9 16.2 11.1 5.8 2.0 0.3
Louisiana Tech 9 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.6 8.4 12.6 16.4 17.5 16.1 11.6 6.6 2.5 0.5
Southern Miss 8 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.7 8.0 11.7 14.8 16.2 15.1 12.1 8.1 4.2 1.4 0.3
Texas San Antonio 7 - 7 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.2 8.2 12.5 16.2 17.3 15.2 11.8 7.3 3.7 1.3 0.3 0.0
Florida Atlantic 6 - 8 0.1 1.0 3.2 7.0 11.5 15.3 17.2 15.7 12.4 8.5 4.9 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
UTEP 6 - 8 0.2 1.0 3.4 7.5 12.0 15.9 17.3 15.5 12.1 8.0 4.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
UAB 6 - 8 0.1 0.8 2.6 6.3 11.2 15.4 17.8 16.9 13.3 8.6 4.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Florida International 6 - 8 0.4 1.9 5.3 9.8 14.3 16.9 16.3 13.7 10.1 6.2 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 5 - 9 0.5 2.3 6.4 11.8 16.6 18.2 16.9 12.7 8.0 4.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 3 - 11 4.3 12.7 19.2 20.6 17.1 12.1 7.4 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 3 - 11 5.4 14.2 20.3 20.9 16.7 11.2 6.3 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Western Kentucky 33.2% 19.3 9.6 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 32.4% 18.8 9.5 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Texas 23.4% 12.5 7.4 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marshall 13.1% 6.3 4.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 14.0% 6.7 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 9.5% 4.4 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 3.5% 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 2.1% 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
UTEP 1.9% 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
UAB 1.7% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida International 1.3% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Western Kentucky 29.1% 25.8% 3.2% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.8 5.5 9.3 7.1 3.3 0.7 0.1 70.9 4.4%
Old Dominion 20.2% 19.5% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.1 6.1 4.5 1.6 0.2 79.8 0.9%
North Texas 15.5% 14.8% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.4 4.8 3.0 0.8 0.1 84.5 0.8%
Marshall 11.5% 11.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.6 3.7 1.7 0.3 88.5 0.2%
Louisiana Tech 10.9% 10.6% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.4 3.0 1.2 0.2 89.1 0.3%
Southern Miss 7.8% 7.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.3 1.9 0.7 0.2 92.2 0.4%
Texas San Antonio 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.5 96.8 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 98.2 0.0%
UTEP 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 98.2 0.0%
UAB 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 98.4 0.0%
Florida International 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 98.8 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 99.4 0.0%
Charlotte 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Rice 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Western Kentucky 29.1% 2.2% 27.9% 6.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 20.2% 0.6% 19.9% 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 15.5% 0.6% 15.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 11.5% 0.2% 11.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 10.9% 0.3% 10.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 7.8% 0.3% 7.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 3.2% 0.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 1.8% 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 1.8% 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 1.6% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 1.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.6 5.4 0.1
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.5 96.3 3.1 0.0
2nd Round 17.7% 0.2 82.3 17.6 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4 0.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0