Ivy League
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
92 Penn 33.8%   12   8 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 8 10 - 4 +5.7      +3.1 96 +2.6 92 70.5 160 +12.5 45 0.0 1
93 Harvard 31.7%   3 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 11 10 - 4 +5.6      +1.3 135 +4.3 64 70.0 177 +1.4 157 0.0 1
101 Yale 28.2%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 8 10 - 4 +5.1      +2.5 109 +2.7 90 77.3 41 +8.0 83 0.0 1
178 Brown 4.4%   6 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 14 6 - 8 -1.2      -3.0 255 +1.8 117 76.2 54 0.0 173 0.0 1
190 Princeton 4.2%   3 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 15 6 - 8 -1.7      -0.9 198 -0.8 190 64.7 307 -4.9 231 0.0 1
231 Cornell 1.8%   3 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 17 5 - 9 -4.2      -2.4 242 -1.8 225 71.3 145 -2.9 200 0.0 1
237 Dartmouth 1.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 17 5 - 9 -4.8      -0.5 182 -4.3 291 69.7 184 -4.0 220 0.0 1
257 Columbia 0.9%   2 - 6 0 - 0 7 - 19 4 - 10 -5.4      -0.5 181 -4.9 306 73.1 111 -13.1 317 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Penn 2.2 39.1 27.9 18.3 8.4 3.8 1.7 0.6 0.2
Harvard 2.2 39.0 27.0 18.4 8.7 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.2
Yale 2.4 34.3 27.3 20.0 10.0 4.8 2.4 1.0 0.3
Brown 4.6 4.3 8.6 14.6 21.3 19.8 15.2 10.4 5.8
Princeton 4.8 4.0 7.6 13.1 20.0 19.4 16.2 12.0 7.7
Cornell 5.7 1.4 3.4 7.0 13.3 17.3 20.0 19.7 17.9
Dartmouth 5.9 0.9 2.5 5.8 11.5 16.4 20.3 22.2 20.5
Columbia 6.1 0.7 2.1 4.7 10.1 14.9 19.3 22.7 25.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Penn 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.4 6.8 11.3 15.9 19.2 18.6 13.7 7.0 2.0
Harvard 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.7 7.0 11.5 15.8 18.5 18.1 13.6 7.2 2.0
Yale 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.6 8.1 12.4 16.9 18.4 16.9 12.0 5.9 1.5
Brown 6 - 8 0.1 0.8 2.6 5.9 10.5 14.8 17.0 16.7 13.5 9.3 5.3 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Princeton 6 - 8 0.2 1.2 3.5 7.3 11.7 15.3 16.8 15.8 12.4 8.2 4.6 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Cornell 5 - 9 0.9 3.9 8.6 13.5 17.0 17.3 14.8 10.9 7.0 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Dartmouth 5 - 9 1.1 4.4 9.9 15.4 18.1 17.5 14.1 9.7 5.5 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Columbia 4 - 10 1.6 6.2 11.8 16.7 18.3 16.6 12.6 8.3 4.6 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Penn 39.1% 26.1 10.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Harvard 39.0% 26.3 10.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Yale 34.3% 22.3 9.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Brown 4.3% 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Princeton 4.0% 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cornell 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.9% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Columbia 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Penn 33.8% 30.5% 3.3% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.5 6.9 11.1 7.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 66.2 4.7%
Harvard 31.7% 30.1% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 3.8 9.4 9.9 5.8 1.4 0.1 68.3 2.2%
Yale 28.2% 27.0% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.6 8.3 8.5 5.2 1.3 0.1 71.8 1.6%
Brown 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.3 95.6 0.0%
Princeton 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.8 0.9 95.8 0.0%
Cornell 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 98.2 0.0%
Dartmouth 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 98.9 0.0%
Columbia 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 99.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Penn 33.8% 2.0% 32.7% 8.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 31.7% 1.3% 31.0% 6.9% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Yale 28.2% 0.9% 27.7% 5.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 4.4% 0.1% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 4.2% 0.2% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 1.8% 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 1.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.1 5.9 0.1
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 95.9 3.7 0.0
2nd Round 21.4% 0.2 78.6 21.1 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.8 0.0
Elite Eight 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0