Metro Atlantic Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
124 Rider 42.3%   16   2 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 10 14 - 4 +3.1      +3.9 78 -0.7 186 80.9 16 -0.6 181 0.0 1
204 Marist 11.5%   4 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 8 -2.7      -1.0 200 -1.7 223 62.8 332 -1.3 188 0.0 1
205 Iona 11.5%   2 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 8 -2.7      -0.5 180 -2.2 240 77.1 42 -8.1 271 0.0 1
226 Canisius 7.8%   2 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 9 -4.0      -3.7 277 -0.4 174 70.3 169 -7.6 263 0.0 1
246 Quinnipiac 5.6%   4 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -5.1      -5.5 312 +0.4 157 68.4 220 -3.1 204 0.0 1
248 Fairfield 5.4%   2 - 8 0 - 0 12 - 18 9 - 9 -5.1      -0.6 185 -4.5 298 71.8 131 -12.7 313 0.0 1
259 Niagara 4.9%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 16 8 - 10 -5.6      -3.5 272 -2.1 234 77.9 36 -2.9 199 0.0 1
266 St. Peter's 4.2%   2 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 -5.9      -5.8 316 -0.2 172 63.9 321 -13.4 318 0.0 1
271 Siena 3.9%   4 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 18 8 - 10 -6.1      +0.9 149 -6.9 341 56.8 352 -2.7 196 0.0 1
306 Monmouth 1.5%   0 - 11 0 - 0 7 - 24 7 - 11 -8.3      -6.9 329 -1.4 214 70.1 174 -19.0 343 0.0 1
310 Manhattan 1.5%   2 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 12 -8.7      -9.9 346 +1.2 134 61.2 345 -12.8 314 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Rider 1.9 63.3 16.7 8.2 4.6 2.8 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1
Marist 4.4 12.8 18.1 15.0 12.3 10.4 8.8 7.2 5.9 4.4 3.3 1.9
Iona 4.4 12.8 17.7 15.0 12.5 10.3 8.8 7.1 5.8 4.6 3.4 1.9
Canisius 5.3 7.7 12.6 12.5 12.1 11.2 10.2 9.3 8.1 7.1 5.7 3.6
Quinnipiac 5.8 5.2 9.8 10.8 10.9 11.0 10.7 10.2 9.6 8.6 7.5 5.8
Fairfield 5.6 5.5 11.0 11.6 11.7 11.2 10.7 9.8 9.2 7.9 6.5 4.7
Niagara 6.2 4.1 8.2 9.5 10.4 10.7 10.9 10.7 10.1 9.8 8.9 6.8
St. Peter's 6.3 3.8 7.6 9.4 10.1 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.0 9.0 7.3
Siena 6.2 3.4 8.1 9.9 10.4 10.7 11.0 10.7 10.5 9.8 8.7 6.9
Monmouth 7.8 1.0 2.9 4.3 5.8 7.0 8.7 10.2 11.9 14.0 16.0 18.1
Manhattan 8.0 1.0 2.8 4.0 5.5 6.8 8.2 9.8 11.4 13.6 16.3 20.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Rider 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.8 7.3 10.4 13.2 16.2 16.1 13.7 9.1 3.5
Marist 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.8 7.4 10.0 12.3 13.5 13.5 12.1 9.2 6.5 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1
Iona 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.0 7.3 10.1 12.2 13.6 13.5 12.0 9.3 6.3 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1
Canisius 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.7 4.9 7.5 10.2 12.3 13.5 13.2 12.0 9.2 6.2 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
Quinnipiac 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.5 9.3 11.8 13.4 13.5 12.2 10.1 7.4 4.8 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.3 5.7 8.4 11.4 13.1 13.9 12.8 10.8 8.1 5.2 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Niagara 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.8 7.4 10.4 12.4 13.9 13.4 11.5 9.1 6.4 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.8 7.8 10.8 12.7 14.0 13.3 11.3 8.9 5.9 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Siena 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.6 7.5 10.5 12.8 14.1 13.4 11.8 9.2 6.0 3.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 7 - 11 0.2 1.3 3.4 6.7 10.3 13.2 14.8 14.3 12.4 9.4 6.4 4.1 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 6 - 12 0.4 1.7 4.2 7.5 10.9 13.3 14.2 13.7 11.7 8.8 6.1 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Rider 63.3% 51.4 9.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Marist 12.8% 7.5 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iona 12.8% 7.5 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Canisius 7.7% 4.3 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 5.2% 2.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 5.5% 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Niagara 4.1% 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Peter's 3.8% 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Siena 3.4% 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Rider 42.3% 42.3% 0.1% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.1 7.9 12.6 12.6 5.4 57.7 0.1%
Marist 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.2 5.3 88.5 0.0%
Iona 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.0 7.7 88.5 0.0%
Canisius 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.6 92.2 0.0%
Quinnipiac 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.1 94.4 0.0%
Fairfield 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 5.1 94.6 0.0%
Niagara 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.0 95.1 0.0%
St. Peter's 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 3.8 95.8 0.0%
Siena 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 96.1 0.0%
Monmouth 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%
Manhattan 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.5 98.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Rider 42.3% 1.9% 41.6% 5.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 11.5% 2.5% 10.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 11.5% 4.7% 9.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 7.8% 3.5% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 5.6% 2.6% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 5.4% 4.3% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 4.9% 2.8% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 4.2% 3.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 3.9% 2.0% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.5% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 86.6% 0.9 13.4 86.5 0.0
2nd Round 6.5% 0.1 93.5 6.5
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0