Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
97 Loyola Chicago 26.1%   14   5 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 6 +5.3      -0.8 195 +6.2 31 65.5 291 +0.7 164 0.0 1
123 Southern Illinois 16.4%   7 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 7 +3.4      +0.8 150 +2.5 96 65.7 284 +5.4 115 0.0 1
128 Bradley 14.3%   6 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +2.8      +0.3 162 +2.5 95 64.8 304 +4.1 129 0.0 1
141 Indiana St. 11.7%   4 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 12 9 - 9 +1.8      -0.7 191 +2.5 97 70.8 159 +5.3 116 0.0 1
150 Illinois St. 7.5%   5 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 9 +0.7      +1.3 135 -0.6 183 71.1 151 +1.5 154 0.0 1
157 Drake 7.6%   5 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 10 +0.3      +1.1 140 -0.8 192 76.1 60 +11.9 50 0.0 1
158 Valparaiso 6.5%   5 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 +0.2      +0.2 167 -0.1 168 66.2 268 -0.3 174 0.0 1
174 Northern Iowa 5.1%   2 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -0.9      -2.2 239 +1.3 132 66.2 269 -2.8 196 0.0 1
176 Evansville 4.6%   3 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -1.2      -2.1 237 +0.9 140 78.5 32 -0.4 176 0.0 1
193 Missouri St. 3.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 11 -2.0      +0.4 160 -2.4 246 74.8 81 -1.5 188 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Loyola Chicago 2.7 38.3 20.7 13.5 9.1 6.5 4.6 3.3 2.1 1.3 0.6
Southern Illinois 3.8 20.5 18.2 15.2 12.6 10.1 8.0 6.2 4.5 3.1 1.7
Bradley 4.0 18.2 16.6 14.4 12.7 10.4 8.7 7.0 5.5 4.0 2.4
Indiana St. 4.7 14.0 13.1 12.5 11.7 10.7 10.0 9.0 7.8 6.4 4.9
Illinois St. 5.3 8.1 10.0 11.3 11.7 11.7 11.5 10.9 9.9 8.5 6.4
Drake 5.6 8.2 9.4 10.0 10.6 10.7 11.1 10.9 10.4 9.8 8.8
Valparaiso 5.6 6.8 8.8 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.6 11.5 11.0 10.0 8.2
Northern Iowa 6.3 4.7 6.5 7.8 9.0 10.1 10.9 11.8 12.7 13.4 12.9
Evansville 6.4 4.2 5.9 7.4 8.6 9.8 10.8 12.1 13.0 14.1 14.2
Missouri St. 6.9 2.6 4.2 5.7 7.2 8.8 10.3 12.3 14.0 16.4 18.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Loyola Chicago 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.0 7.7 10.5 13.2 14.8 14.5 12.3 8.8 5.0 2.0 0.5
Southern Illinois 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.8 6.2 9.1 11.9 13.8 14.0 13.1 10.7 7.1 4.2 1.9 0.6 0.1
Bradley 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.7 7.2 9.9 12.4 13.5 13.6 11.9 9.4 6.5 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.1
Indiana St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.6 7.1 9.4 11.7 12.4 12.6 11.7 9.7 7.2 4.7 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
Illinois St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.6 6.2 9.0 11.8 13.2 13.6 12.7 10.5 7.5 4.8 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Drake 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.6 4.8 7.3 9.7 11.7 12.7 12.7 11.4 9.3 6.9 4.7 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Valparaiso 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.5 7.5 10.0 12.5 13.6 13.1 11.6 9.3 6.6 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.1 6.8 9.7 12.3 13.1 12.9 11.7 9.7 7.1 4.8 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Evansville 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.4 7.3 10.4 12.4 13.4 12.9 11.5 9.1 6.7 4.3 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 7 - 11 0.2 1.1 3.0 5.9 9.2 11.9 13.8 13.8 12.7 10.2 7.5 4.9 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Loyola Chicago 38.3% 27.1 8.7 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 20.5% 12.9 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bradley 18.2% 11.4 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 14.0% 8.6 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 8.1% 4.5 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Drake 8.2% 4.8 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 6.8% 3.7 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 4.7% 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Evansville 4.2% 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 2.6% 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Loyola Chicago 26.1% 25.6% 0.4% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.8 8.1 7.5 3.6 0.6 73.9 0.6%
Southern Illinois 16.4% 15.5% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.3 5.1 3.5 1.2 0.2 83.6 1.0%
Bradley 14.3% 14.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 4.0 4.2 2.2 0.6 85.7 0.3%
Indiana St. 11.7% 11.1% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 3.3 2.7 1.2 0.4 88.3 0.7%
Illinois St. 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.4 2.1 0.8 92.5 0.0%
Drake 7.6% 7.2% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.4 92.4 0.4%
Valparaiso 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.4 1.3 93.5 0.0%
Northern Iowa 5.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.8 94.9 0.0%
Evansville 4.6% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.8 95.4 0.1%
Missouri St. 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 96.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Loyola Chicago 26.1% 0.5% 25.8% 5.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 16.4% 0.7% 16.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 14.3% 0.4% 14.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 11.7% 0.6% 11.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 7.5% 0.4% 7.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 7.6% 0.4% 7.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 6.5% 0.6% 6.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 5.1% 0.4% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 4.6% 0.5% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 3.1% 0.4% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.3 2.7 0.0
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 97.4 1.5 0.0
2nd Round 14.5% 0.1 85.5 14.4 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.5 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0