Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
106 Loyola Chicago 28.5%   15   15 - 10 9 - 4 18 - 12 12 - 6 +4.4      +0.4 166 +4.0 69 60.9 342 +3.3 130 +5.6 1
129 Drake 19.7%   17 - 7 8 - 5 20 - 9 11 - 7 +2.9      +2.0 122 +1.0 144 71.2 118 +7.1 78 +3.6 2
146 Southern Illinois 11.9%   14 - 13 7 - 7 16 - 15 9 - 9 +1.6      +0.8 151 +0.8 146 64.0 309 +0.6 161 +0.1 5
152 Missouri St. 11.1%   13 - 12 8 - 5 16 - 14 11 - 7 +0.8      +0.3 172 +0.5 160 67.1 234 +0.8 159 +3.4 3
157 Illinois St. 8.6%   13 - 12 7 - 6 16 - 14 10 - 8 +0.2      +0.3 171 -0.1 177 68.4 195 +1.3 151 +1.5 4
162 Bradley 6.7%   13 - 12 6 - 7 15 - 15 8 - 10 +0.1      -1.9 235 +2.0 119 64.9 291 -0.4 175 -1.1 8
181 Northern Iowa 5.0%   9 - 15 6 - 7 11 - 18 8 - 10 -1.1      -0.1 180 -1.1 200 62.3 330 -2.2 198 -0.7 6
185 Valparaiso 4.7%   11 - 13 6 - 7 13 - 16 8 - 10 -1.4      -2.6 253 +1.3 136 62.9 325 -1.8 195 -0.7 7
198 Indiana St. 2.1%   11 - 13 5 - 9 13 - 15 7 - 11 -2.2      -2.1 237 -0.1 178 72.7 84 -0.3 173 -3.5 9
203 Evansville 1.8%   8 - 16 4 - 9 10 - 19 6 - 12 -2.4      -3.7 279 +1.3 134 72.5 88 -4.7 234 -5.2 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Loyola Chicago 1.3 80.9 14.3 3.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Drake 2.2 28.0 43.6 17.9 6.8 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 4.5 1.1 7.3 18.9 26.4 21.3 14.2 7.4 2.9 0.5 0.0
Missouri St. 2.7 17.3 29.7 30.1 13.9 6.0 2.2 0.7 0.1
Illinois St. 4.0 3.8 15.0 22.4 22.6 17.1 10.2 6.0 2.4 0.4 0.0
Bradley 5.9 0.5 2.3 6.9 12.8 18.0 20.8 19.6 13.7 4.3 1.1
Northern Iowa 6.0 0.4 2.0 6.8 11.8 17.6 20.8 18.5 13.8 6.5 1.7
Valparaiso 6.2 0.1 1.9 5.7 12.0 16.2 18.6 18.1 19.2 6.4 1.8
Indiana St. 8.3 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 6.4 12.1 21.8 41.1 14.5
Evansville 9.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.4 6.4 12.9 25.5 49.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Loyola Chicago 12 - 6 0.4 3.8 15.4 31.2 34.1 15.1
Drake 11 - 7 0.7 5.5 19.0 34.0 29.7 11.1
Southern Illinois 9 - 9 4.6 20.3 35.2 29.7 10.2
Missouri St. 11 - 7 2.3 13.8 29.8 33.1 17.4 3.6
Illinois St. 10 - 8 3.5 15.3 29.5 30.8 16.9 4.0
Bradley 8 - 10 4.4 19.4 35.0 28.5 11.1 1.7
Northern Iowa 8 - 10 6.0 21.6 32.7 26.3 11.3 2.1
Valparaiso 8 - 10 6.7 23.6 34.1 24.7 9.5 1.5
Indiana St. 7 - 11 13.0 34.6 35.1 14.9 2.4
Evansville 6 - 12 10.1 29.2 33.3 20.4 6.2 0.8




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Loyola Chicago 80.9% 57.4 18.7 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Drake 28.0% 9.9 13.8 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 1.1% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 17.3% 6.4 6.9 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Illinois St. 3.8% 0.5 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0
Bradley 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indiana St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Loyola Chicago 28.5% 28.5% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.8 13.9 5.8 0.1 71.5 0.0%
Drake 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.0 7.6 8.3 1.5 80.3 0.0%
Southern Illinois 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 4.3 6.3 0.7 88.1 0.0%
Missouri St. 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.6 0.7 88.9 0.0%
Illinois St. 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.9 0.5 91.4 0.0%
Bradley 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 4.2 1.1 93.3 0.0%
Northern Iowa 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.5 95.0 0.0%
Valparaiso 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.5 1.8 95.3 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 97.9 0.0%
Evansville 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 98.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Loyola Chicago 28.5% 0.0% 28.5% 3.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 19.7% 0.0% 19.7% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 11.9% 0.0% 11.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 11.1% 0.0% 11.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 8.6% 0.0% 8.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 6.7% 0.2% 6.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 5.0% 1.0% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 4.7% 0.4% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.1% 0.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 1.8% 1.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.9
2nd Round 7.7% 0.1 92.3 7.7
Sweet Sixteen 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0