Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
10 Nevada 98.0%   3   10 - 0 0 - 0 29 - 2 16 - 2 +17.7      +12.3 4 +5.5 41 72.1 125 +24.5 4 0.0 1
50 Utah St. 40.1%   8 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 8 13 - 5 +9.6      +4.8 55 +4.8 54 74.8 79 +12.6 43 0.0 1
61 Fresno St. 20.7%   6 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +7.9      +3.7 80 +4.2 68 69.5 191 +11.2 55 0.0 1
69 San Diego St. 12.0%   5 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +7.0      +5.7 39 +1.3 132 69.1 201 +4.1 127 0.0 1
127 Boise St. 2.2%   2 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 8 +3.0      +1.2 140 +1.8 117 69.0 204 -7.7 265 0.0 1
136 UNLV 1.6%   4 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 +2.3      -0.2 175 +2.5 96 73.7 98 -2.2 191 0.0 1
146 New Mexico 1.5%   4 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 +1.0      +4.3 70 -3.2 268 82.4 12 +4.0 130 0.0 1
209 Wyoming 0.2%   3 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -2.9      -1.8 228 -1.0 200 76.4 50 -5.5 236 0.0 1
211 Colorado St. 0.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 19 6 - 12 -2.9      +1.5 130 -4.4 296 70.2 173 -2.9 200 0.0 1
242 Air Force 0.1%   3 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 13 -5.0      -3.1 256 -1.9 227 65.0 302 -7.0 257 0.0 1
323 San Jose St. 0.0%   1 - 6 0 - 0 4 - 25 3 - 15 -10.7      -7.9 333 -2.8 261 68.4 219 -16.9 337 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Nevada 1.2 83.6 12.0 3.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 2.8 14.6 38.1 22.9 12.9 6.6 3.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 3.5 7.9 24.7 23.9 18.6 12.0 7.0 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
San Diego St. 3.9 5.3 19.7 22.4 19.7 14.5 9.7 5.2 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Boise St. 5.2 1.5 7.5 12.7 16.2 18.1 17.3 12.5 7.7 4.2 1.9 0.4
UNLV 5.4 1.1 6.1 11.9 16.3 18.7 17.3 13.1 8.4 4.5 2.0 0.5
New Mexico 6.4 0.4 3.0 6.1 9.5 13.9 17.5 18.7 14.9 9.7 5.0 1.3
Wyoming 7.7 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.2 7.4 11.7 16.6 20.5 19.0 13.2 4.7
Colorado St. 8.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.7 5.2 9.2 13.8 19.2 21.8 19.7 6.7
Air Force 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 6.3 11.3 17.7 23.7 24.8 10.9
San Jose St. 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.6 10.4 23.4 58.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Nevada 16 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.9 8.6 15.9 24.5 27.5 17.4
Utah St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.4 6.7 11.3 15.6 18.6 18.1 13.5 7.4 2.5 0.4
Fresno St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.4 7.8 11.4 15.4 17.0 15.9 12.2 7.7 3.5 1.0 0.2
San Diego St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.3 6.3 9.8 13.5 16.3 16.4 14.0 9.8 5.2 2.2 0.6 0.1
Boise St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.4 6.0 9.6 12.8 15.0 15.3 13.6 10.2 6.5 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
UNLV 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.5 6.3 10.0 13.5 15.4 15.4 13.4 9.7 5.9 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.7 8.0 11.7 14.6 15.5 14.4 11.4 7.9 4.7 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 6 - 12 0.2 0.9 3.0 6.6 10.9 14.6 16.3 15.4 12.5 9.0 5.4 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 6 - 12 0.4 1.9 5.3 9.8 13.8 16.3 16.1 13.5 10.0 6.5 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 5 - 13 0.6 3.0 7.6 12.8 16.9 17.8 15.4 11.5 7.4 4.1 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 3 - 15 10.5 20.6 23.3 19.0 12.9 7.4 3.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Nevada 83.6% 72.1 10.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 14.6% 7.6 6.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 7.9% 3.9 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
San Diego St. 5.3% 2.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 1.5% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
UNLV 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Nevada 98.0% 65.8% 32.3% 3   11.8 18.8 16.7 13.1 10.2 7.9 7.4 5.5 3.4 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 94.3%
Utah St. 40.1% 13.5% 26.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.5 4.6 7.9 11.0 6.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 59.9 30.7%
Fresno St. 20.7% 9.1% 11.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.7 3.4 6.0 4.8 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 79.3 12.8%
San Diego St. 12.0% 6.8% 5.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.5 3.2 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 88.0 5.6%
Boise St. 2.2% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 97.8 0.2%
UNLV 1.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 98.4 0.1%
New Mexico 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.5 0.5%
Wyoming 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Air Force 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Nevada 98.0% 0.5% 97.9% 83.0% 54.1% 31.0% 16.5% 8.6% 4.2%
Utah St. 40.1% 10.0% 35.2% 15.9% 5.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Fresno St. 20.7% 5.6% 18.0% 7.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego St. 12.0% 3.0% 10.6% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boise St. 2.2% 0.2% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 1.6% 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 1.5% 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 37.1 50.1 12.1 0.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.7 0.0 42.8 48.0 8.8 0.4
2nd Round 89.0% 1.1 11.0 68.3 19.6 1.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 58.7% 0.6 41.3 54.8 3.9 0.1
Elite Eight 33.1% 0.3 66.9 32.4 0.7 0.0
Final Four 17.2% 0.2 82.8 17.2 0.1
Final Game 8.8% 0.1 91.2 8.8 0.0
Champion 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.3