Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
13 Nevada 100.0%   4   24 - 1 11 - 1 29 - 2 16 - 2 +16.1      +8.9 15 +7.2 23 72.4 89 +23.5 6 +17.8 1
50 Utah St. 44.4%   19 - 6 10 - 3 22 - 8 13 - 5 +9.3      +5.2 46 +4.0 66 70.3 140 +10.3 54 +9.7 3
61 Fresno St. 11.2%   17 - 6 9 - 3 21 - 8 13 - 5 +7.7      +3.4 82 +4.3 59 68.4 197 +8.9 65 +10.6 2
114 San Diego St. 3.4%   14 - 9 7 - 4 17 - 13 10 - 8 +3.9      +2.4 108 +1.5 129 67.0 235 +3.6 127 +4.0 4
122 Boise St. 1.8%   10 - 14 6 - 6 13 - 17 9 - 9 +3.4      +2.4 106 +1.0 144 66.1 258 -2.4 199 +0.1 6
151 UNLV 0.7%   13 - 11 7 - 5 16 - 14 10 - 8 +0.9      +3.3 86 -2.3 239 69.8 154 +1.5 150 +3.7 5
152 New Mexico 0.8%   10 - 13 5 - 7 13 - 16 8 - 10 +0.9      +0.3 171 +0.5 158 79.8 18 -0.8 179 0.0 7
180 Colorado St. 0.2%   8 - 16 4 - 8 11 - 19 7 - 11 -1.1      +2.3 112 -3.4 261 68.7 189 -4.3 222 -1.9 8
237 Air Force 0.0%   9 - 15 5 - 8 11 - 18 7 - 11 -4.5      -3.0 263 -1.5 214 65.5 277 -4.0 217 -2.4 9
296 Wyoming 0.0%   5 - 19 2 - 10 7 - 23 4 - 14 -7.7      -5.4 300 -2.3 240 71.4 112 -9.8 306 -9.8 10
339 San Jose St. 0.0%   2 - 20 0 - 11 3 - 26 1 - 17 -13.4      -8.8 341 -4.6 294 69.8 155 -17.5 341 -18.4 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Nevada 1.1 91.8 7.2 0.9 0.1
Utah St. 1.8 26.3 65.2 6.8 1.5 0.1 0.0
Fresno St. 3.1 2.5 15.3 56.8 23.2 2.1 0.0
San Diego St. 3.5 1.7 12.7 36.3 35.6 12.5 1.2 0.0
Boise St. 6.0 0.0 0.3 3.1 15.8 58.0 18.7 3.6 0.4 0.0
UNLV 6.8 0.0 0.3 4.0 33.2 46.4 13.0 2.7 0.3
New Mexico 4.6 0.5 9.1 28.2 56.9 5.2 0.1
Colorado St. 7.8 0.0 0.4 9.0 26.5 44.9 15.6 3.7 0.0
Air Force 8.7 0.0 1.2 8.1 28.7 41.3 20.7 0.0
Wyoming 9.2 0.0 0.3 3.3 16.8 34.9 44.7 0.0
San Jose St. 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Nevada 16 - 2 0.0 0.4 3.7 16.7 40.5 38.7
Utah St. 15 - 3 0.0 0.1 1.5 7.5 23.2 39.1 28.7
Fresno St. 13 - 5 0.1 2.5 18.6 41.6 32.3 5.0
San Diego St. 13 - 5 0.7 4.8 14.1 24.7 28.4 19.4 7.0 0.8
Boise St. 9 - 9 0.6 5.6 18.8 30.6 27.7 13.7 3.0
UNLV 8 - 10 0.6 5.7 18.8 32.6 29.0 11.7 1.6
New Mexico 11 - 7 3.1 16.5 35.4 33.0 11.9
Colorado St. 7 - 11 1.0 8.1 25.5 34.4 22.6 7.4 1.0
Air Force 6 - 12 9.7 28.4 33.4 20.7 7.0 0.9
Wyoming 5 - 13 21.2 37.6 27.9 10.8 2.2 0.2
San Jose St. 1 - 17 31.8 40.4 20.9 5.9 0.9 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Nevada 91.8% 71.8 18.3 1.5 0.1
Utah St. 26.3% 7.2 17.5 1.5 0.1
Fresno St. 2.5% 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1
San Diego St. 1.7% 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1
Boise St.
UNLV
New Mexico
Colorado St.
Air Force
Wyoming
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Nevada 100.0% 65.8% 34.1% 4   0.6 7.1 18.2 26.3 22.2 15.4 6.8 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Utah St. 44.4% 17.2% 27.2% 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 3.5 9.5 16.9 10.4 1.2 0.0 55.6 32.8%
Fresno St. 11.2% 9.9% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 3.4 5.5 1.4 0.1 88.9 1.3%
San Diego St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 96.6 0.0%
Boise St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 98.2 0.0%
UNLV 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.3 0.0%
New Mexico 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 99.2 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Nevada 100.0% 0.1% 99.9% 83.0% 47.5% 19.5% 8.3% 3.2% 1.1%
Utah St. 44.4% 16.8% 35.9% 12.3% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 11.2% 1.1% 10.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego St. 3.4% 0.0% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boise St. 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 42.1 53.3 4.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.5 49.5 47.6 2.9 0.0
2nd Round 86.4% 1.0 13.6 74.0 12.2 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 49.7% 0.5 50.3 48.1 1.7 0.0
Elite Eight 20.2% 0.2 79.8 20.1 0.2
Final Four 8.5% 0.1 91.5 8.5 0.0
Final Game 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2
Champion 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1