Ohio Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
87 Belmont 41.6%   13   6 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 6 15 - 3 +5.8      +5.0 51 +0.9 145 81.8 13 +12.5 44 0.0 1
102 Murray St. 35.4%   4 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 6 15 - 3 +5.0      +0.4 157 +4.6 59 67.3 250 +9.3 73 0.0 1
145 Jacksonville St. 15.2%   4 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 5 +1.3      -0.4 177 +1.7 118 72.1 126 +0.8 163 0.0 1
195 Austin Peay 5.8%   3 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -2.0      -1.1 208 -0.9 193 73.5 105 -3.1 205 0.0 1
274 Southeast Missouri St. 1.0%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -6.2      -3.4 264 -2.8 262 71.3 143 -7.3 259 0.0 1
275 Eastern Kentucky 0.9%   5 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -6.3      -2.9 252 -3.3 273 93.3 3 +1.1 159 0.0 1
277 Tennessee St. 1.0%   1 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 10 -6.4      -6.9 330 +0.5 155 75.1 75 -14.5 324 0.0 1
283 Morehead St. 0.9%   1 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 20 7 - 11 -6.9      -1.2 213 -5.7 321 69.6 187 -9.5 282 0.0 1
297 Tennessee Martin 0.6%   2 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -7.7      -2.5 245 -5.1 309 75.0 76 -7.8 266 0.0 1
318 Eastern Illinois 0.2%   4 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 19 6 - 12 -9.7      -5.4 310 -4.3 291 67.9 234 -5.2 235 0.0 1
327 SIU Edwardsville 0.1%   1 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 20 5 - 13 -11.1      -4.6 298 -6.5 334 70.9 154 -15.6 330 0.0 1
333 Tennessee Tech 0.0%   1 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -12.0      -8.6 337 -3.4 276 75.2 71 -17.8 341 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Belmont 1.9 47.7 29.9 14.5 5.2 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 1.9 47.7 29.5 13.6 5.5 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 3.0 18.4 23.0 28.9 15.5 7.0 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Austin Peay 4.3 5.9 11.3 19.8 24.9 14.6 9.0 5.7 3.8 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.3
Southeast Missouri St. 6.8 0.6 1.9 5.4 10.7 15.1 14.9 13.2 11.8 9.8 7.8 5.7 3.1
Eastern Kentucky 7.1 0.5 1.5 4.3 9.0 13.5 14.5 13.7 12.6 11.0 9.0 6.5 3.8
Tennessee St. 6.7 0.7 2.1 5.9 11.0 15.7 14.6 13.0 11.2 9.3 7.7 5.6 3.2
Morehead St. 7.5 0.5 1.4 3.8 7.7 11.5 12.9 13.2 12.4 11.7 10.7 8.5 5.7
Tennessee Martin 7.6 0.3 1.1 3.3 7.3 11.0 12.5 12.8 12.7 11.8 11.1 9.6 6.3
Eastern Illinois 8.4 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.0 7.4 10.0 11.9 13.1 14.0 13.8 13.1 10.5
SIU Edwardsville 9.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.7 5.0 7.4 9.1 11.2 12.9 15.1 16.9 18.5
Tennessee Tech 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.4 5.5 7.5 9.7 11.8 14.8 19.7 25.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Belmont 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.4 6.4 11.0 16.4 20.5 20.2 14.2 5.3
Murray St. 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.8 6.8 10.9 15.5 19.0 19.3 14.7 6.3
Jacksonville St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.5 7.3 10.8 14.2 16.3 16.1 13.4 8.5 3.8 0.9
Austin Peay 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.7 4.9 7.6 10.5 13.2 14.7 14.3 12.2 8.8 5.3 2.4 0.8 0.1
Southeast Missouri St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.6 5.1 8.6 11.8 14.1 14.7 13.6 11.1 7.9 4.9 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 6.2 9.8 13.0 14.7 14.7 13.2 9.9 6.6 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 5.0 8.2 11.1 13.7 14.5 13.6 11.3 8.2 5.3 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Morehead St. 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.6 8.0 11.3 13.5 14.2 13.9 11.2 8.7 5.7 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Martin 7 - 11 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.1 8.5 11.8 13.9 14.5 13.4 10.9 8.0 5.1 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 6 - 12 0.3 1.4 3.9 7.6 11.7 14.8 15.8 14.6 11.8 8.2 5.2 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 5 - 13 0.8 3.3 7.3 11.3 14.5 15.6 14.5 12.0 8.6 5.7 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 5 - 13 1.4 4.9 9.8 14.3 16.5 15.7 13.2 10.0 6.7 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 47.7% 33.1 12.5 1.9 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 47.7% 33.0 12.7 1.9 0.2 0.0
Jacksonville St. 18.4% 10.4 6.2 1.6 0.2 0.0
Austin Peay 5.9% 2.8 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee St. 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Morehead St. 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Martin 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Eastern Illinois 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 41.6% 39.6% 2.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.6 6.7 14.2 11.8 5.3 1.1 0.1 58.4 3.3%
Murray St. 35.4% 34.7% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.8 8.9 11.5 8.2 3.0 0.3 64.6 1.0%
Jacksonville St. 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 5.1 5.2 1.6 84.8 0.0%
Austin Peay 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.5 1.3 94.2 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 99.0 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 99.1 0.0%
Tennessee St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 99.0 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 99.1 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 99.4 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Belmont 41.6% 1.5% 40.8% 9.6% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 35.4% 0.6% 35.1% 7.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 15.2% 0.4% 15.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 5.8% 0.5% 5.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 97.4 1.5
2nd Round 18.5% 0.2 81.5 18.4 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 5.1% 0.1 94.9 5.1 0.0
Elite Eight 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0 0.0
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0