Ohio Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
70 Belmont 44.9%   12   20 - 4 12 - 2 24 - 4 16 - 2 +7.0      +6.6 32 +0.4 161 76.5 36 +11.9 38 +9.4 1
83 Murray St. 33.1%   18 - 4 11 - 2 22 - 5 15 - 3 +6.1      +4.4 55 +1.7 125 70.0 147 +9.1 63 +7.5 2
130 Jacksonville St. 12.8%   16 - 8 10 - 3 20 - 9 14 - 4 +2.8      -1.1 214 +3.8 70 69.4 168 +3.0 132 +5.2 3
139 Austin Peay 12.4%   16 - 8 10 - 3 19 - 10 13 - 5 +2.2      +3.3 83 -1.2 204 72.1 99 +2.9 133 +3.3 4
263 Eastern Kentucky 0.1%   9 - 15 4 - 9 11 - 18 6 - 12 -6.0      -4.9 290 -1.1 201 92.9 2 -7.2 274 -10.5 9
270 Morehead St. 0.2%   8 - 16 6 - 7 10 - 19 8 - 10 -6.2      -0.6 196 -5.6 319 68.6 191 -6.5 264 -5.6 6
289 Eastern Illinois 0.1%   13 - 12 7 - 6 15 - 15 9 - 9 -7.2      -2.4 249 -4.8 302 67.4 227 -2.9 204 -2.9 5
302 Tennessee Martin 0.1%   7 - 15 4 - 9 8 - 19 5 - 13 -8.1      -1.5 222 -6.6 336 69.7 158 -9.8 305 -11.4 10
308 Tennessee St. 0.0%   6 - 17 5 - 8 8 - 20 7 - 11 -8.7      -6.2 316 -2.5 241 71.6 108 -9.9 307 -7.6 7
321 Southeast Missouri St. 0.0%   6 - 18 3 - 10 7 - 22 4 - 14 -10.2      -6.0 314 -4.3 287 69.3 169 -12.9 328 -14.3 12
329 Tennessee Tech 0.0%   5 - 20 3 - 11 6 - 23 4 - 14 -11.4      -9.9 344 -1.4 210 70.9 127 -13.9 333 -12.9 11
330 SIU Edwardsville 0.0%   6 - 17 4 - 9 8 - 20 6 - 12 -11.4      -5.5 304 -5.9 329 71.1 120 -10.8 315 -10.0 8






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Belmont 1.0 98.3 1.5 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 2.0 13.9 74.8 10.5 0.8
Jacksonville St. 3.7 0.1 4.7 20.8 73.7 0.6 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 2.7 3.5 32.3 57.0 7.2 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 8.5 0.0 4.1 8.4 13.1 18.9 27.8 19.2 7.0 1.4
Morehead St. 6.2 0.0 0.8 35.8 28.0 20.3 11.2 3.6 0.4 0.0
Eastern Illinois 5.9 0.0 1.8 48.3 23.0 13.8 8.2 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0
Tennessee Martin 6.4 0.0 1.0 34.6 24.0 18.5 13.8 5.8 2.1 0.2 0.0
Tennessee St. 6.7 0.3 23.9 25.2 22.5 16.8 7.5 3.4 0.4 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 5.7 14.3 40.1 37.4
Tennessee Tech 10.4 0.2 1.0 2.8 6.0 13.5 20.6 35.0 20.9
SIU Edwardsville 9.0 0.0 1.9 5.3 9.9 16.4 26.0 27.5 10.8 2.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Belmont 16 - 2 0.0 0.2 2.7 23.1 74.0
Murray St. 14 - 4 0.1 1.3 10.5 37.9 50.2
Jacksonville St. 12 - 6 0.2 1.8 9.3 23.6 34.1 23.8 7.3
Austin Peay 13 - 5 0.1 1.9 12.1 34.4 40.1 11.4
Eastern Kentucky 6 - 12 8.7 28.9 36.7 20.3 5.0 0.5
Morehead St. 8 - 10 14.0 35.2 32.6 14.6 3.3 0.3
Eastern Illinois 8 - 10 0.3 2.8 11.0 24.2 31.3 21.6 7.8 1.0
Tennessee Martin 7 - 11 5.0 17.6 29.7 27.3 15.3 4.6 0.6
Tennessee St. 7 - 11 5.0 22.2 35.4 27.3 9.4 0.8
Southeast Missouri St. 4 - 14 27.3 46.0 22.3 4.1 0.3 0.0
Tennessee Tech 4 - 14 17.2 36.0 31.5 13.0 2.2
SIU Edwardsville 6 - 12 12.7 36.1 35.0 14.2 2.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 98.3% 84.4 12.1 1.8 0.0
Murray St. 13.9% 1.3 10.9 1.7 0.0
Jacksonville St. 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Austin Peay 3.5% 0.2 1.6 1.7 0.0
Eastern Kentucky
Morehead St.
Eastern Illinois
Tennessee Martin
Tennessee St.
Southeast Missouri St.
Tennessee Tech
SIU Edwardsville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 44.9% 41.5% 3.4% 12   0.0 0.1 0.3 2.7 16.5 21.5 3.7 0.1 55.1 5.7%
Murray St. 33.1% 32.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.4 6.0 17.6 8.4 0.7 0.0 66.9 0.3%
Jacksonville St. 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 4.4 5.8 1.3 0.0 87.2 0.0%
Austin Peay 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.4 2.4 0.0 87.6 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Belmont 44.9% 3.2% 43.0% 10.1% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 33.1% 0.2% 33.0% 6.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 12.8% 0.0% 12.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 12.4% 0.0% 12.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 98.3 1.6
2nd Round 18.5% 0.2 81.5 18.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0