Patriot League
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
143 Bucknell 31.6%   16   17 - 9 11 - 3 20 - 10 14 - 4 +1.7      +1.2 138 +0.5 162 75.0 54 +4.2 114 +5.0 1
156 Colgate 21.9%   15 - 10 8 - 5 18 - 12 11 - 7 +0.5      +2.4 109 -1.8 226 65.7 271 +1.1 154 -0.5 3
159 Lehigh 21.8%   16 - 8 9 - 4 19 - 10 12 - 6 +0.2      +3.8 69 -3.7 270 75.7 45 +2.8 136 +1.8 2
205 American 9.1%   13 - 11 7 - 6 15 - 14 9 - 9 -2.7      -1.5 222 -1.1 203 66.3 249 -4.1 220 -3.1 5
226 Holy Cross 3.7%   14 - 13 5 - 9 16 - 15 7 - 11 -3.9      -1.8 227 -2.1 231 60.8 343 -2.9 203 -8.2 9
234 Army 5.2%   11 - 14 7 - 6 13 - 17 9 - 9 -4.5      -5.2 297 +0.7 152 74.1 62 -5.0 238 -2.7 4
242 Boston University 3.0%   10 - 15 4 - 9 13 - 17 7 - 11 -4.7      -0.9 206 -3.9 275 67.4 226 -6.3 258 -8.3 10
281 Loyola Maryland 1.9%   9 - 17 5 - 8 11 - 20 7 - 11 -6.7      -2.1 241 -4.6 297 71.6 109 -6.8 268 -5.7 6
293 Lafayette 1.1%   7 - 16 5 - 8 9 - 19 7 - 11 -7.5      -1.7 226 -5.8 325 69.7 159 -8.3 286 -6.5 7
305 Navy 0.7%   8 - 16 5 - 8 9 - 20 6 - 12 -8.3      -6.2 317 -2.1 236 67.3 229 -7.8 279 -6.8 8






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Bucknell 1.1 93.3 6.0 0.8 0.0
Colgate 2.6 7.6 33.6 49.2 8.3 1.1 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 2.0 20.8 59.7 16.2 2.8 0.5 0.0
American 4.2 0.2 6.3 17.2 41.7 26.3 5.9 2.0 0.4 0.0
Holy Cross 7.4 0.1 1.7 7.9 19.9 24.4 22.3 15.6 8.1
Army 4.4 0.2 3.1 11.4 42.0 31.8 8.4 2.4 0.6 0.0
Boston University 7.4 0.0 1.6 9.8 22.7 19.8 15.7 14.9 15.5
Loyola Maryland 6.6 0.0 0.5 6.6 17.8 28.0 19.3 12.9 9.2 5.5
Lafayette 7.3 0.0 0.4 3.0 10.3 20.0 20.1 19.1 16.3 10.8
Navy 7.8 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.9 15.0 18.2 19.7 21.2 17.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Bucknell 14 - 4 0.5 6.0 25.2 44.7 23.6
Colgate 11 - 7 0.4 3.7 15.8 32.3 33.3 14.4
Lehigh 12 - 6 0.7 5.6 18.5 32.4 30.7 12.0
American 9 - 9 4.4 17.2 30.4 29.0 15.5 3.5
Holy Cross 7 - 11 9.3 32.4 38.2 17.3 2.7
Army 9 - 9 4.9 21.3 35.2 27.8 9.6 1.3
Boston University 7 - 11 2.2 12.3 28.4 33.2 19.3 4.6
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 4.3 20.0 33.9 28.3 11.7 1.9
Lafayette 7 - 11 11.8 31.2 32.8 18.4 5.2 0.6
Navy 6 - 12 18.9 35.7 29.9 12.6 2.8 0.3




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Bucknell 93.3% 74.4 16.1 2.7 0.1
Colgate 7.6% 0.9 4.1 2.6 0.1
Lehigh 20.8% 5.4 12.8 2.6 0.1
American 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross
Army 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Boston University
Loyola Maryland
Lafayette
Navy


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Bucknell 31.6% 31.6% 0.0% 16   0.2 3.7 14.3 12.8 0.6 68.5 0.0%
Colgate 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 4.5 13.6 3.2 78.1 0.0%
Lehigh 21.8% 21.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 5.7 12.7 2.2 78.2 0.0%
American 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.7 6.3 90.9 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.1 96.3 0.0%
Army 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 4.6 94.8 0.0%
Boston University 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.7 97.0 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.8 98.1 0.0%
Lafayette 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%
Navy 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Bucknell 31.6% 0.0% 31.5% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 21.9% 0.2% 21.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 21.8% 0.1% 21.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 9.1% 2.2% 8.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.7% 1.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 5.2% 2.7% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 3.0% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.9% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.4% 0.9 5.6 94.4
2nd Round 4.1% 0.0 95.9 4.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0