Patriot League
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
148 Lehigh 20.8%   15   6 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +0.8      +2.3 111 -1.5 217 74.7 83 +5.6 110 0.0 1
156 Holy Cross 18.2%   6 - 4 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +0.4      -0.5 183 +0.9 140 62.4 336 +4.8 115 0.0 1
160 Bucknell 17.4%   4 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 0.0      -0.5 179 +0.5 156 74.2 91 +0.5 166 0.0 1
166 Colgate 15.4%   6 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 -0.4      +0.5 154 -0.9 196 66.8 259 +2.7 144 0.0 1
187 Boston University 11.7%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 8 -1.4      -2.8 249 +1.4 130 68.3 224 +0.6 165 0.0 1
192 American 10.8%   5 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 -1.8      -0.2 173 -1.6 219 65.8 285 +0.3 170 0.0 1
261 Army 3.0%   4 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 17 8 - 10 -5.7      -4.9 306 -0.7 185 74.1 93 -5.6 239 0.0 1
298 Loyola Maryland 1.3%   4 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 20 6 - 12 -7.7      -1.8 227 -5.9 326 69.3 193 -8.6 273 0.0 1
312 Navy 0.8%   3 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 13 -9.0      -5.4 309 -3.5 279 64.2 314 -8.0 268 0.0 1
317 Lafayette 0.6%   2 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -9.6      -3.5 273 -6.0 327 69.3 197 -12.3 311 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Lehigh 3.1 28.5 20.0 15.8 12.4 9.3 6.7 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3
Holy Cross 3.2 25.0 19.7 16.3 13.3 10.2 7.4 4.2 2.4 1.1 0.3
Bucknell 3.5 23.0 18.0 15.9 13.2 11.1 8.2 5.5 3.1 1.5 0.6
Colgate 3.6 19.5 17.9 16.1 14.3 12.0 8.9 5.9 3.3 1.6 0.5
Boston University 4.2 13.8 14.7 14.7 14.6 13.5 11.7 8.2 5.2 2.7 1.0
American 4.3 12.5 13.3 14.2 14.3 13.9 12.4 9.2 5.8 3.2 1.3
Army 6.4 2.3 4.0 6.1 8.4 11.4 14.8 17.7 16.1 12.0 7.2
Loyola Maryland 7.4 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.7 7.3 11.2 15.9 20.0 19.9 15.6
Navy 8.0 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.1 5.1 8.5 13.3 19.0 23.7 24.4
Lafayette 8.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.3 7.1 12.0 18.1 24.2 29.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lehigh 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.3 5.6 8.3 11.3 13.7 14.8 13.9 11.9 8.1 4.3 1.7 0.3
Holy Cross 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.6 6.2 9.1 12.3 14.3 14.9 13.7 10.7 6.9 3.5 1.3 0.3
Bucknell 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.5 7.1 9.9 12.4 14.1 13.9 12.5 9.6 6.3 3.4 1.3 0.3
Colgate 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 5.0 7.6 10.9 13.5 14.3 14.3 12.0 8.8 5.2 2.5 0.8 0.1
Boston University 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.4 7.2 9.9 12.6 14.0 14.0 12.4 9.7 6.2 3.5 1.4 0.5 0.1
American 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.9 5.1 7.9 10.8 13.0 14.0 13.6 11.6 8.7 5.6 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1
Army 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.8 6.9 10.3 13.1 14.5 14.1 12.2 9.4 6.4 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 6 - 12 0.3 1.7 4.3 8.1 12.1 14.7 15.1 13.8 11.2 8.2 5.2 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Navy 5 - 13 0.8 3.4 7.3 11.4 14.7 15.8 14.5 11.7 8.7 5.6 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 5 - 13 1.1 4.2 8.8 13.1 15.8 15.9 13.9 10.7 7.3 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lehigh 28.5% 18.8 7.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 25.0% 15.9 6.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 23.0% 14.8 6.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Colgate 19.5% 12.1 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Boston University 13.8% 8.1 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
American 12.5% 7.2 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Army 2.3% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Navy 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lehigh 20.8% 20.7% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.6 7.2 5.6 1.4 79.2 0.1%
Holy Cross 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 6.4 5.0 1.2 81.8 0.1%
Bucknell 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 5.3 6.7 2.8 82.6 0.0%
Colgate 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.9 5.7 2.0 84.6 0.0%
Boston University 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.1 4.9 2.5 88.3 0.0%
American 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.6 3.0 89.2 0.0%
Army 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 97.0 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 98.7 0.0%
Navy 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.2 0.0%
Lafayette 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Lehigh 20.8% 0.4% 20.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 18.2% 0.4% 18.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 17.4% 0.9% 17.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 15.4% 0.7% 15.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 11.7% 0.9% 11.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 10.8% 1.2% 10.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 3.0% 1.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 96.3 0.0
2nd Round 6.9% 0.1 93.1 6.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0