Southwestern Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
220 Texas Southern 38.3%   16   2 - 6 0 - 0 17 - 12 14 - 4 -3.5      -1.1 203 -2.4 244 81.5 14 +3.6 134 0.0 1
287 Grambling St. 18.7%   1 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 6 -7.0      -4.9 305 -2.1 236 75.5 67 -9.0 277 0.0 1
289 Prairie View 18.0%   1 - 9 0 - 0 13 - 17 12 - 6 -7.1      -3.5 270 -3.5 280 75.7 65 -12.0 309 0.0 1
322 Arkansas Pine Bluff 7.3%   2 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 18 10 - 8 -10.5      -6.5 326 -3.9 289 67.9 234 -3.9 219 0.0 1
328 Alabama St. 6.8%   0 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 16 9 - 9 -11.2      -4.9 306 -6.3 330 70.2 172 -7.1 256 0.0 1
333 Southern 4.7%   0 - 9 0 - 0 10 - 20 9 - 9 -11.9      -3.7 275 -8.3 348 68.7 212 -16.0 335 0.0 1
336 Jackson St. 3.6%   1 - 8 0 - 0 9 - 20 8 - 10 -12.6      -10.5 348 -2.1 238 73.8 95 -17.6 339 0.0 1
345 Alcorn St. 1.3%   0 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 20 6 - 12 -15.9      -9.3 344 -6.7 337 66.7 259 -23.6 352 0.0 1
346 Mississippi Valley 0.9%   1 - 9 0 - 0 7 - 24 6 - 12 -16.0      -8.1 336 -8.0 347 71.0 153 -15.1 328 0.0 1
351 Alabama A&M 0.4%   0 - 9 0 - 0 5 - 27 5 - 13 -17.8      -12.0 353 -5.8 323 67.4 248 -23.7 353 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Texas Southern 1.9 55.4 21.9 11.3 5.8 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Grambling St. 3.1 23.3 23.9 18.5 13.0 8.7 5.8 3.5 1.9 1.0 0.3
Prairie View 3.1 21.6 24.5 19.6 13.6 9.1 5.6 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.2
Arkansas Pine Bluff 4.7 6.7 12.0 15.0 16.5 15.5 12.8 9.5 6.6 3.8 1.7
Alabama St. 5.1 6.5 10.4 12.9 14.1 14.1 13.0 10.9 8.6 6.1 3.5
Southern 5.4 3.6 7.6 11.0 13.9 15.4 15.4 13.2 10.0 6.6 3.4
Jackson St. 5.8 2.7 5.9 9.4 12.5 14.6 15.2 14.5 11.8 8.5 4.8
Alcorn St. 7.4 0.7 1.8 3.4 5.6 8.2 11.1 14.4 17.5 19.4 18.0
Mississippi Valley 7.5 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.0 8.0 11.3 15.0 18.7 20.1 17.3
Alabama A&M 8.2 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.7 4.7 7.6 11.8 16.8 23.4 30.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Texas Southern 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.5 7.4 11.0 14.5 16.9 16.7 13.7 8.1 2.7
Grambling St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.3 5.4 8.0 10.8 13.2 14.6 14.1 11.8 8.4 4.9 2.0 0.4
Prairie View 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.1 5.4 8.2 11.3 13.9 15.3 14.7 11.7 7.9 4.3 1.5 0.3
Arkansas Pine Bluff 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.2 9.3 12.0 13.9 14.1 12.7 10.3 7.4 4.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Alabama St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.3 5.6 8.0 10.3 12.1 12.6 12.4 11.0 8.7 6.2 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.0
Southern 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.7 6.4 9.5 12.3 14.0 14.1 12.6 10.1 7.0 4.3 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 4.8 7.9 10.8 13.3 14.2 13.4 11.4 8.7 5.8 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 6 - 12 0.5 2.3 5.3 8.8 12.3 14.2 14.3 13.0 10.6 7.7 5.1 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 6 - 12 0.4 1.9 4.8 8.9 12.8 14.9 15.3 13.7 10.7 7.6 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 5 - 13 1.2 4.5 9.2 13.7 15.8 16.0 13.8 10.4 6.9 4.2 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Texas Southern 55.4% 42.9 10.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Grambling St. 23.3% 15.0 6.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 21.6% 13.5 6.3 1.5 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 6.7% 3.6 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 6.5% 3.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Southern 3.6% 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 2.7% 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Texas Southern 38.3% 38.3% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.3 2.1 10.7 25.2 61.7 0.0%
Grambling St. 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 17.9 81.3 0.0%
Prairie View 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 17.7 82.0 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 7.2 92.7 0.0%
Alabama St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.7 93.2 0.0%
Southern 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 4.7 95.3 0.0%
Jackson St. 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 3.6 96.4 0.0%
Alcorn St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 1.3 98.7 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.1 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Texas Southern 38.3% 15.1% 30.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 18.7% 15.9% 10.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 18.0% 16.4% 9.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 7.3% 6.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 6.8% 6.3% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 4.7% 4.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 3.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 61.0% 0.6 39.0 61.0
2nd Round 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0