Summit League
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
77 South Dakota St. 58.4%   14   20 - 7 11 - 2 23 - 7 14 - 2 +6.3      +5.7 39 +0.6 156 74.5 59 +5.1 105 +7.9 1
170 Nebraska Omaha 14.8%   14 - 9 9 - 2 17 - 11 12 - 4 -0.4      +5.2 48 -5.6 320 72.5 86 +3.6 125 +7.6 2
183 Purdue Fort Wayne 10.6%   14 - 10 9 - 3 16 - 12 11 - 5 -1.2      +3.1 91 -4.4 291 78.1 23 +0.5 163 +3.2 3
196 North Dakota St. 8.9%   12 - 13 8 - 5 13 - 15 9 - 7 -2.1      +1.7 127 -3.8 271 66.0 263 -1.5 190 -0.7 4
231 South Dakota 2.7%   7 - 15 3 - 8 10 - 17 6 - 10 -4.4      -3.3 268 -1.1 199 67.6 219 -7.7 279 -9.4 6
271 Oral Roberts 1.6%   8 - 18 6 - 7 9 - 20 7 - 9 -6.3      -0.8 203 -5.5 318 67.3 232 -6.1 254 -4.0 5
282 North Dakota 0.5%   5 - 16 3 - 9 7 - 18 5 - 11 -6.8      -5.5 308 -1.3 206 73.7 69 -10.5 313 -10.1 8
286 Western Illinois 1.4%   6 - 16 3 - 8 8 - 19 5 - 11 -7.0      -3.9 282 -3.1 254 68.3 200 -11.5 320 -10.1 7
298 Denver 1.0%   6 - 19 2 - 10 8 - 21 4 - 12 -7.7      -1.5 220 -6.3 333 67.4 226 -10.6 314 -13.8 9






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota St. 1.0 95.9 4.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 1.8 20.5 76.4 2.6 0.5
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.2 0.1 8.2 65.0 25.5 1.1 0.1 0.0
North Dakota St. 3.4 0.0 6.6 49.9 42.3 1.2 0.0
South Dakota 7.0 0.1 0.6 12.4 22.9 28.3 21.0 14.8
Oral Roberts 5.1 0.0 2.3 10.9 63.9 18.4 4.1 0.4
North Dakota 7.9 0.0 4.4 9.5 17.7 26.2 42.2
Western Illinois 6.4 0.1 1.8 25.6 30.8 22.0 15.8 4.0
Denver 6.4 0.4 2.5 23.6 28.6 22.1 17.8 5.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 14 - 2 0.1 3.2 25.0 71.7
Nebraska Omaha 12 - 4 0.8 6.0 19.6 33.1 29.5 11.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 10 - 6 0.8 10.6 31.1 37.2 18.1 2.2
North Dakota St. 9 - 7 16.5 39.3 34.0 10.2
South Dakota 6 - 10 2.5 13.9 31.3 34.4 16.2 1.8
Oral Roberts 7 - 9 22.1 41.4 28.9 7.6
North Dakota 5 - 11 9.0 31.2 38.5 18.2 3.1
Western Illinois 6 - 10 5.7 23.1 36.2 27.0 8.0
Denver 6 - 10 7.8 25.3 34.7 23.2 7.8 1.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 95.9% 79.4 16.4 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 20.5% 4.1 16.4 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Dakota St. 0.0% 0.0
South Dakota
Oral Roberts
North Dakota
Western Illinois
Denver


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 58.4% 58.4% 0.0% 14   0.7 15.1 31.4 10.4 0.7 0.0 41.6 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.3 6.0 0.4 85.2 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.1 1.8 7.3 1.4 89.4 0.0%
North Dakota St. 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 5.5 2.6 91.1 0.0%
South Dakota 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.5 97.3 0.0%
Oral Roberts 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%
North Dakota 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Western Illinois 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 1.4 98.6 0.0%
Denver 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
South Dakota St. 58.4% 0.0% 58.4% 10.5% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 14.8% 0.0% 14.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 10.6% 0.1% 10.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 8.9% 0.3% 8.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 2.7% 2.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 1.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.1% 1.0 2.9 97.1
2nd Round 11.8% 0.1 88.2 11.8
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0