Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
124 Texas St. 23.7%   14   19 - 5 10 - 3 22 - 7 13 - 5 +3.3      -0.1 181 +3.3 83 64.4 301 +8.1 69 +7.4 1
127 Georgia Southern 20.3%   14 - 10 8 - 5 17 - 12 11 - 7 +3.1      +2.4 107 +0.7 154 82.1 11 +3.2 131 +2.3 4
130 Georgia St. 19.8%   16 - 8 8 - 4 20 - 10 12 - 6 +2.8      +2.1 117 +0.7 153 71.2 116 +5.9 94 +4.3 3
154 Louisiana Monroe 8.5%   12 - 10 6 - 5 16 - 13 10 - 8 +0.6      +4.7 54 -4.0 278 67.1 235 -0.3 172 -0.3 6
158 Coastal Carolina 8.2%   10 - 11 6 - 5 14 - 14 10 - 8 +0.2      -0.1 184 +0.4 164 70.6 135 -1.4 187 +0.2 5
166 Texas Arlington 9.3%   11 - 13 8 - 4 14 - 16 11 - 7 -0.2      -3.5 272 +3.2 86 66.9 239 +1.1 155 +5.0 2
190 Louisiana 3.3%   12 - 10 5 - 6 15 - 14 8 - 10 -1.9      +1.5 131 -3.3 260 79.5 20 +0.6 162 -1.6 7
199 Appalachian St. 2.3%   5 - 16 3 - 8 8 - 20 6 - 12 -2.3      +1.2 139 -3.5 265 77.1 29 -7.3 275 -6.9 12
206 Arkansas Little Rock 1.9%   8 - 16 5 - 8 10 - 19 7 - 11 -2.7      -2.1 242 -0.6 189 74.9 55 -6.8 270 -5.1 9
218 South Alabama 1.6%   10 - 13 5 - 7 12 - 17 7 - 11 -3.4      -1.8 228 -1.6 218 67.0 237 -5.5 245 -4.3 8
237 Troy 0.8%   9 - 14 4 - 9 11 - 17 6 - 12 -4.5      +0.8 149 -5.3 312 68.8 185 -4.1 219 -6.4 11
267 Arkansas St. 0.4%   8 - 15 4 - 8 10 - 19 6 - 12 -6.1      -1.8 229 -4.2 285 71.4 113 -4.9 236 -5.6 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Texas St. 1.3 80.7 12.4 4.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Georgia Southern 3.0 11.2 29.1 26.3 20.2 10.0 2.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 2.5 22.6 37.5 20.0 12.9 5.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 5.0 2.4 5.8 11.0 15.6 24.6 23.6 10.6 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Coastal Carolina 4.8 2.2 8.9 12.4 16.8 24.0 21.3 9.2 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
Texas Arlington 3.0 17.4 24.1 25.0 17.4 10.4 4.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 6.8 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.4 12.7 20.8 26.5 14.3 8.8 4.8 2.6 0.9
Appalachian St. 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 5.9 12.3 15.9 16.4 17.2 14.7 15.0
Arkansas Little Rock 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 8.3 19.1 23.7 21.3 13.8 8.1 2.6
South Alabama 8.3 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.4 8.9 19.0 23.4 18.4 13.9 8.2 3.6
Troy 10.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 6.0 12.5 16.5 20.1 21.5 21.4
Arkansas St. 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 7.5 12.6 16.2 19.9 23.0 17.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Texas St. 13 - 5 0.7 5.0 16.7 31.6 32.2 13.8
Georgia Southern 11 - 7 0.3 3.9 15.9 32.7 33.4 13.9
Georgia St. 12 - 6 0.2 1.8 9.2 24.1 33.4 24.1 7.2
Louisiana Monroe 10 - 8 0.8 5.0 14.4 24.8 27.0 18.9 7.5 1.6
Coastal Carolina 10 - 8 0.6 3.7 12.7 22.9 27.3 21.3 9.6 2.0
Texas Arlington 11 - 7 1.0 6.3 17.0 27.6 28.1 15.8 4.2
Louisiana 8 - 10 1.8 9.1 20.7 26.9 23.9 12.8 4.1 0.6
Appalachian St. 6 - 12 1.4 7.6 18.4 26.9 24.7 14.8 5.3 0.8
Arkansas Little Rock 7 - 11 7.6 25.7 34.8 23.4 7.6 1.0
South Alabama 7 - 11 8.8 25.0 30.7 22.7 9.9 2.6 0.3
Troy 6 - 12 10.4 27.6 33.5 20.8 6.9 0.9
Arkansas St. 6 - 12 9.6 26.3 32.9 21.6 7.9 1.5 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Texas St. 80.7% 56.7 17.3 5.3 1.3 0.1 0.0
Georgia Southern 11.2% 2.1 4.8 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
Georgia St. 22.6% 7.1 10.2 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 2.4% 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 2.2% 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 17.4% 5.6 7.0 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St.
Arkansas Little Rock
South Alabama
Troy
Arkansas St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Texas St. 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.3 2.5 9.6 9.8 1.5 0.0 76.3 0.0%
Georgia Southern 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.9 10.2 5.0 0.2 79.7 0.0%
Georgia St. 19.8% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.8 10.0 2.6 0.0 80.2 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.8 0.9 91.5 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.1 1.2 91.8 0.0%
Texas Arlington 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.7 1.1 90.7 0.0%
Louisiana 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 0.8 96.7 0.0%
Appalachian St. 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.1 97.7 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 98.1 0.0%
South Alabama 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 98.4 0.0%
Troy 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Arkansas St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Texas St. 23.7% 0.0% 23.7% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 20.3% 0.0% 20.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 19.8% 0.0% 19.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 8.5% 0.1% 8.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 8.2% 0.1% 8.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 9.3% 0.1% 9.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 3.3% 0.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 2.3% 1.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.9% 1.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 1.6% 0.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.3% 1.0 1.7 98.3 0.0
2nd Round 7.7% 0.1 92.3 7.7
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0