Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
108 Georgia St. 27.9%   13   6 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 6 +4.6      +3.6 83 +0.9 141 69.3 194 +9.3 74 0.0 1
126 Louisiana 19.3%   4 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +3.0      +1.3 136 +1.7 119 73.6 101 +6.0 108 0.0 1
134 Georgia Southern 16.9%   5 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +2.5      +1.9 121 +0.6 152 84.2 7 +7.6 90 0.0 1
143 Texas St. 13.1%   8 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 9 11 - 7 +1.6      -1.5 216 +3.1 83 63.9 320 +9.4 72 0.0 1
179 Appalachian St. 5.6%   2 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -1.3      +1.7 125 -3.0 265 75.7 65 -6.8 254 0.0 1
186 Coastal Carolina 5.3%   3 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -1.4      +0.3 162 -1.7 224 69.9 184 -5.6 241 0.0 1
196 South Alabama 4.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -2.1      -2.8 251 +0.8 150 68.7 212 -6.0 246 0.0 1
201 Louisiana Monroe 4.0%   2 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -2.5      -1.1 206 -1.3 211 64.8 306 -7.4 260 0.0 1
206 Troy 3.6%   2 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -2.7      0.0 170 -2.7 256 68.8 211 -8.9 275 0.0 1
237 Arkansas Little Rock 1.5%   3 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -4.8      -3.6 274 -1.2 205 73.7 99 -9.9 289 0.0 1
252 Texas Arlington 1.2%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 12 -5.3      -5.1 307 -0.2 171 71.7 132 -9.2 279 0.0 1
287 Arkansas St. 0.5%   2 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -7.1      -1.6 220 -5.5 316 72.0 128 -7.5 262 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Georgia St. 2.9 36.1 20.6 14.1 9.8 6.9 4.8 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1
Louisiana 3.5 26.2 19.1 14.8 11.4 8.7 6.5 4.7 3.4 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.4
Georgia Southern 4.0 20.0 17.0 14.8 12.3 9.8 7.9 6.2 4.6 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.5
Texas St. 4.1 17.7 16.9 14.7 12.7 10.5 8.3 6.5 4.7 3.5 2.4 1.3 0.7
Appalachian St. 6.1 6.5 8.5 9.6 10.2 10.6 10.4 10.0 9.1 8.2 7.4 5.7 3.7
Coastal Carolina 6.1 6.2 8.3 9.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.1 9.5 8.5 7.4 5.8 3.6
South Alabama 6.5 4.1 6.5 8.3 9.6 10.6 11.1 11.2 10.3 9.5 8.2 6.6 4.1
Louisiana Monroe 6.9 3.9 5.6 6.9 8.2 9.3 10.1 10.5 10.6 10.4 9.8 8.4 6.2
Troy 6.9 3.6 5.5 7.1 8.5 9.5 10.2 10.6 10.6 10.4 9.7 8.2 6.0
Arkansas Little Rock 8.0 1.2 2.7 4.1 5.6 7.1 8.7 10.2 11.5 12.4 12.6 12.8 11.2
Texas Arlington 8.7 0.8 1.7 2.7 4.0 5.3 7.0 8.7 10.5 12.5 14.6 16.1 16.0
Arkansas St. 9.4 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.8 5.2 7.0 8.8 11.5 14.4 18.5 25.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Georgia St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.6 6.1 9.0 12.3 14.5 15.2 14.5 11.1 6.6 3.1 0.7
Louisiana 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.6 5.5 8.5 11.2 13.3 14.4 13.7 11.3 8.3 4.6 1.8 0.4
Georgia Southern 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.9 7.5 10.1 12.6 14.0 13.9 12.3 9.3 6.0 3.0 1.1 0.2
Texas St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.2 7.8 10.9 13.1 14.2 13.8 11.9 8.7 5.4 2.6 0.9 0.2
Appalachian St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.4 5.8 8.5 10.7 12.6 13.1 12.4 10.7 8.2 5.7 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Coastal Carolina 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.5 5.9 8.5 11.1 12.8 13.1 12.7 10.4 8.1 5.6 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
South Alabama 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.0 6.7 9.6 12.3 14.0 13.8 12.4 9.8 6.9 4.2 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.4 8.1 11.1 12.7 13.4 12.6 10.9 8.4 5.8 3.6 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Troy 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.3 8.2 10.7 12.9 13.7 12.9 10.9 8.4 5.8 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 7 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.2 8.5 11.9 13.7 14.6 13.3 10.7 7.9 5.3 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas Arlington 6 - 12 0.3 1.6 4.0 7.5 11.2 14.0 14.8 13.6 11.7 8.7 5.8 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 6 - 12 0.8 3.1 6.7 10.8 13.9 15.2 14.7 12.2 9.1 6.2 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Georgia St. 36.1% 25.0 8.4 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 26.2% 17.1 6.7 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 20.0% 12.5 5.5 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 17.7% 10.5 5.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 6.5% 3.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 6.2% 3.2 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 4.1% 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 3.9% 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Troy 3.6% 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas Arlington 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Georgia St. 27.9% 26.5% 1.5% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 3.5 8.4 8.3 4.8 1.3 0.2 72.1 2.0%
Louisiana 19.3% 18.8% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.1 5.7 4.9 2.3 0.4 80.7 0.6%
Georgia Southern 16.9% 16.0% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.3 5.0 3.6 1.3 0.3 83.1 1.0%
Texas St. 13.1% 13.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.7 4.4 2.5 0.5 86.9 0.1%
Appalachian St. 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 1.5 94.4 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 1.6 94.7 0.0%
South Alabama 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 95.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.2 96.0 0.0%
Troy 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.5 96.4 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 98.5 0.0%
Texas Arlington 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 98.8 0.0%
Arkansas St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Georgia St. 27.9% 1.2% 27.3% 5.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 19.3% 0.6% 19.0% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 16.9% 0.8% 16.5% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 13.1% 0.3% 12.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 5.6% 0.7% 5.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 5.3% 0.7% 5.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 4.1% 1.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 4.0% 0.6% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 3.6% 0.7% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.1 2.9 0.0
1st Round 97.8% 1.0 2.2 96.2 1.6 0.0
2nd Round 13.7% 0.1 86.3 13.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0