West Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
2 Gonzaga 100.0%   1   25 - 2 12 - 0 29 - 2 16 - 0 +24.0      +15.8 1 +8.2 15 75.4 49 +25.0 5 +24.5 1
53 St. Mary's 37.4%   11   17 - 10 8 - 4 19 - 12 10 - 6 +9.1      +7.9 20 +1.2 137 61.1 340 +6.9 78 +9.3 4
62 San Francisco 17.0%   19 - 6 8 - 4 22 - 7 11 - 5 +7.6      +4.1 61 +3.6 76 66.0 260 +10.1 57 +10.6 3
75 BYU 4.4%   17 - 10 9 - 3 19 - 12 11 - 5 +6.4      +5.7 41 +0.8 148 75.7 46 +7.2 75 +12.2 2
102 San Diego 0.8%   15 - 11 5 - 7 17 - 13 7 - 9 +4.8      +1.8 125 +3.0 96 66.9 238 +4.8 108 +1.2 6
140 Loyola Marymount 0.3%   15 - 9 5 - 7 17 - 11 7 - 9 +2.1      -0.9 206 +3.0 95 60.7 344 +4.1 115 +0.2 7
163 Pepperdine 0.2%   11 - 15 5 - 8 13 - 16 7 - 9 -0.1      +0.4 167 -0.5 187 75.3 51 -2.7 201 -0.2 8
186 Pacific 0.0%   11 - 13 3 - 8 12 - 17 4 - 12 -1.4      -1.1 215 -0.3 181 65.4 280 -1.4 185 -5.4 9
193 Santa Clara 0.1%   12 - 13 5 - 7 14 - 15 7 - 9 -2.0      -2.0 235 0.0 173 66.4 246 0.0 167 +2.8 5
318 Portland 0.0%   5 - 20 0 - 12 6 - 23 1 - 15 -9.7      -7.1 331 -2.7 243 69.0 179 -12.5 326 -18.2 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.0 100.0
St. Mary's 3.8 12.4 25.1 41.3 17.0 3.1 1.1 0.0
San Francisco 2.6 54.7 33.8 9.8 1.7 0.1
BYU 2.5 0.0 62.8 28.7 7.6 0.9
San Diego 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.6 18.6 60.5 14.7
Loyola Marymount 6.5 0.0 0.9 5.0 13.0 18.8 52.4 8.9 0.9
Pepperdine 5.3 0.1 11.7 47.3 39.0 1.9 0.0
Pacific 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 8.4 31.4 59.5
Santa Clara 4.6 5.7 13.1 28.1 32.5 13.2 6.8 0.6
Portland 10.0 0.1 99.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 16 - 0 0.0 0.8 16.8 82.4
St. Mary's 9 - 7 4.4 19.5 32.9 28.0 12.7 2.5
San Francisco 11 - 5 1.3 9.7 29.9 40.2 18.9
BYU 11 - 5 7.1 28.9 41.2 22.1 0.6
San Diego 5 - 11 20.0 35.4 28.2 12.6 3.2 0.6 0.0
Loyola Marymount 7 - 9 6.0 26.9 39.2 23.6 4.4
Pepperdine 8 - 8 100.0
Pacific 4 - 12 16.9 35.8 31.7 13.4 2.2 0.1
Santa Clara 9 - 7 3.7 16.5 28.9 28.3 16.0 5.4 1.1 0.1
Portland 1 - 15 55.8 37.2 6.6 0.4 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0 0.0
St. Mary's
San Francisco
BYU 0.0% 0.0
San Diego
Loyola Marymount
Pepperdine
Pacific
Santa Clara
Portland


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 89.2% 10.8% 1   48.1 40.9 9.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
St. Mary's 37.4% 4.2% 33.3% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 10.1 11.8 9.3 3.1 0.3 0.0 62.6 34.7%
San Francisco 17.0% 3.2% 13.8% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 6.1 7.4 1.3 0.0 83.0 14.2%
BYU 4.4% 2.3% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 95.6 2.2%
San Diego 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2 0.2%
Loyola Marymount 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.2% 86.6% 69.2% 49.1% 32.6% 20.7%
St. Mary's 37.4% 7.9% 33.1% 12.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 17.0% 11.2% 10.7% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
BYU 4.4% 1.9% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 47.6 44.9 7.4 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.5 56.1 39.6 4.3 0.0
2nd Round 99.4% 1.2 0.6 83.5 15.5 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 87.1% 0.9 12.9 84.4 2.7 0.0
Elite Eight 69.5% 0.7 30.5 68.9 0.6
Final Four 49.1% 0.5 50.9 49.1 0.1
Final Game 32.6% 0.3 67.4 32.6 0.0
Champion 20.7% 0.2 79.3 20.7