West Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
2 Gonzaga 99.8%   2   9 - 1 0 - 0 28 - 3 14 - 2 +19.1      +14.2 1 +4.9 52 76.1 57 +24.4 5 0.0 1
47 San Francisco 45.8%   7 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 7 11 - 5 +9.8      +2.7 104 +7.1 25 68.5 217 +14.0 34 0.0 1
53 St. Mary's 32.6%   6 - 4 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 6 +9.4      +7.4 23 +2.0 113 61.4 344 +4.7 117 0.0 1
66 BYU 21.8%   7 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 7 +7.4      +4.8 54 +2.6 94 79.5 22 +4.5 120 0.0 1
75 San Diego 27.4%   7 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 10 9 - 7 +6.6      +3.4 88 +3.2 80 66.4 266 +11.9 49 0.0 1
135 Loyola Marymount 3.6%   7 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 10 8 - 8 +2.4      +0.1 168 +2.3 104 61.2 347 +15.2 28 0.0 1
162 Pacific 0.5%   5 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 6 - 10 -0.1      +1.2 141 -1.2 208 66.4 269 +0.2 171 0.0 1
225 Pepperdine 0.1%   5 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 5 - 11 -3.7      -0.1 172 -3.5 278 76.1 56 -3.3 209 0.0 1
272 Portland 0.0%   4 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 19 4 - 12 -6.1      -1.7 225 -4.4 297 70.7 158 -5.0 232 0.0 1
273 Santa Clara 0.0%   3 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 21 3 - 13 -6.2      -3.8 281 -2.4 246 67.7 245 -9.7 286 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.2 86.0 10.4 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 3.0 11.3 34.5 23.3 15.0 9.1 4.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 3.3 8.5 29.3 24.5 17.4 10.9 6.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
BYU 4.1 3.8 17.3 20.4 20.4 17.0 12.1 6.2 2.2 0.6 0.1
San Diego 4.2 3.2 15.4 18.9 19.8 18.3 13.5 7.0 2.8 0.9 0.2
Loyola Marymount 5.4 0.8 5.7 10.8 15.6 19.3 20.0 14.9 8.1 3.5 1.2
Pacific 6.5 0.2 1.8 4.4 8.2 13.3 19.4 23.9 16.2 8.8 3.9
Pepperdine 7.7 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.0 6.1 11.1 18.9 25.6 20.4 13.3
Portland 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.5 5.8 11.9 20.9 28.6 28.9
Santa Clara 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 5.0 11.2 20.6 28.9 31.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 14 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.7 6.7 14.3 24.5 30.1 20.4
San Francisco 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.7 7.2 12.0 16.7 19.2 17.7 12.4 6.5 2.1 0.3
St. Mary's 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.9 9.2 14.1 18.1 18.7 15.7 10.0 4.6 1.2 0.2
BYU 9 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.6 5.6 10.1 14.6 17.7 17.5 14.4 9.4 4.5 1.6 0.4 0.0
San Diego 9 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.7 11.4 15.3 17.9 16.6 13.1 8.2 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.0
Loyola Marymount 8 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.6 8.8 13.2 16.4 17.4 15.1 10.8 6.5 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pacific 6 - 10 0.1 0.7 2.5 5.9 10.9 15.6 17.9 17.0 13.3 8.6 4.7 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 5 - 11 0.8 3.8 9.0 14.7 18.4 18.3 14.8 10.0 5.8 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Portland 4 - 12 2.8 9.8 17.3 20.6 19.0 14.1 8.7 4.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Santa Clara 3 - 13 3.2 10.8 18.1 21.2 19.1 13.5 8.0 3.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 86.0% 75.0 9.8 1.2 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 11.3% 5.6 4.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 8.5% 3.9 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
BYU 3.8% 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
San Diego 3.2% 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pacific 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Santa Clara


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 99.8% 68.0% 31.8% 2   21.9 25.5 19.3 13.4 8.3 5.4 3.2 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.4%
San Francisco 45.8% 11.0% 34.8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.8 5.3 7.2 9.0 9.5 4.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 54.2 39.1%
St. Mary's 32.6% 9.6% 22.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.4 6.2 8.3 5.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 67.4 25.4%
BYU 21.8% 5.3% 16.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.9 4.3 5.8 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 78.2 17.4%
San Diego 27.4% 4.5% 22.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.7 4.5 5.7 6.6 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 72.6 24.0%
Loyola Marymount 3.6% 1.0% 2.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.4 2.6%
Pacific 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.1%
Pepperdine 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Gonzaga 99.8% 0.1% 99.8% 90.3% 65.0% 40.5% 23.5% 13.0% 6.9%
San Francisco 45.8% 9.0% 41.4% 20.0% 6.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
St. Mary's 32.6% 8.5% 28.4% 12.8% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
BYU 21.8% 6.4% 18.4% 7.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 27.4% 6.9% 23.4% 8.8% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 3.6% 1.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.3 16.8 44.2 30.5 7.9 0.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.1 21.8 47.4 25.4 5.0 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 95.4% 1.4 4.6 56.7 33.2 5.2 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 70.8% 0.8 29.2 62.5 8.0 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 43.8% 0.5 56.2 42.2 1.6 0.0
Final Four 24.8% 0.3 75.2 24.5 0.2
Final Game 13.4% 0.1 86.6 13.4 0.0
Champion 7.0% 0.1 93.0 7.0