Western Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
60 New Mexico St. 48.8%   13   20 - 4 10 - 1 24 - 5 14 - 2 +7.8      +4.8 52 +3.1 90 65.4 279 +12.4 33 +15.9 1
104 Grand Canyon 23.6%   14 - 10 7 - 4 18 - 11 11 - 5 +4.7      +2.3 111 +2.3 110 68.3 202 +2.6 138 +2.9 3
120 Utah Valley 17.4%   14 - 8 5 - 4 19 - 10 10 - 6 +3.5      +2.8 98 +0.7 151 70.7 133 +5.0 106 +1.0 5
183 UT Rio Grande Valley 4.7%   14 - 12 7 - 4 17 - 14 10 - 6 -1.2      -5.1 294 +3.9 70 74.7 57 +0.9 158 +3.5 2
191 Cal St. Bakersfield 3.4%   13 - 9 7 - 4 15 - 12 9 - 7 -1.9      -0.5 193 -1.4 208 65.8 269 +1.2 153 +2.0 4
200 Seattle 2.3%   11 - 11 1 - 8 15 - 14 5 - 11 -2.3      -2.4 247 +0.1 172 69.1 178 -4.4 225 -17.2 8
212 California Baptist 2.2%   10 - 10 5 - 5 12 - 14 7 - 9 -3.3      +1.0 147 -4.3 288 71.6 107 -3.7 214 -3.6 6
232 UMKC 1.4%   8 - 16 4 - 6 11 - 19 7 - 9 -4.5      -2.4 245 -2.1 234 67.3 231 -5.2 240 -3.6 7
351 Chicago St. 0.0%   1 - 22 0 - 10 1 - 28 0 - 16 -19.5      -10.4 345 -9.2 351 74.8 56 -21.6 349 -20.1 9






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
New Mexico St. 1.0 100.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 2.5 0.2 66.5 23.7 7.1 2.3 0.1 0.0
Utah Valley 3.1 0.1 40.9 26.8 18.5 11.2 2.0 0.4 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.4 0.2 22.7 32.8 30.6 12.2 1.4 0.2
Cal St. Bakersfield 4.1 0.0 10.6 17.7 28.5 35.3 6.6 1.3 0.0
Seattle 7.6 0.0 0.6 9.7 17.7 71.9 0.0
California Baptist 6.0 0.7 2.3 5.8 13.8 46.2 27.0 4.2
UMKC 6.3 0.2 1.1 3.9 10.4 40.7 38.1 5.6
Chicago St. 9.0 0.4 99.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
New Mexico St. 14 - 2 0.1 1.1 8.2 33.8 56.8
Grand Canyon 11 - 5 0.0 0.9 8.4 29.0 41.4 20.2
Utah Valley 10 - 6 0.0 0.2 2.0 8.9 21.4 31.2 26.2 10.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 10 - 6 0.8 10.4 31.3 37.0 18.2 2.2
Cal St. Bakersfield 9 - 7 7.9 26.9 35.5 22.3 6.5 0.8
Seattle 5 - 11 0.1 4.0 16.0 29.1 29.0 16.7 4.8 0.4
California Baptist 7 - 9 11.5 29.3 32.1 19.4 6.4 1.2 0.1
UMKC 7 - 9 2.0 15.8 32.5 30.6 14.9 3.7 0.4
Chicago St. 0 - 16 75.0 22.1 2.7 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico St. 100.0% 99.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 0.2% 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah Valley 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0
Seattle
California Baptist
UMKC
Chicago St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico St. 48.8% 45.0% 3.9% 13   0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 2.5 14.3 22.3 8.5 0.5 51.2 7.0%
Grand Canyon 23.6% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.6 6.2 11.3 4.3 0.1 76.4 0.0%
Utah Valley 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 5.1 8.0 2.4 0.1 82.6 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 3.2 0.7 95.3 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 0.5 96.6 0.0%
Seattle 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 97.7 0.0%
California Baptist 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.2 97.8 0.0%
UMKC 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.3 98.6 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
New Mexico St. 48.8% 3.6% 46.7% 11.8% 2.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 23.6% 0.0% 23.6% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 17.4% 0.0% 17.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.7% 0.0% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.4% 0.0% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 2.3% 1.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 2.2% 0.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.1 3.9
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 97.2 1.7
2nd Round 16.8% 0.2 83.2 16.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0