Western Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
65 New Mexico St. 50.0%   12   6 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 6 13 - 3 +7.7      +2.2 113 +5.5 43 69.0 205 +10.6 63 0.0 1
116 Grand Canyon 22.5%   5 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 5 +4.0      +1.0 144 +3.0 83 70.5 164 +1.4 157 0.0 1
140 Utah Valley 13.9%   5 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 6 +1.9      +1.0 143 +0.9 141 69.7 188 +4.5 123 0.0 1
170 Seattle 7.1%   7 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 11 9 - 7 -0.6      -1.2 212 +0.6 149 72.0 126 +1.7 153 0.0 1
210 Cal St. Bakersfield 3.5%   3 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 15 8 - 8 -2.9      -3.5 267 +0.5 150 64.5 310 -0.9 184 0.0 1
221 UT Rio Grande Valley 2.7%   6 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 9 -3.5      -4.5 293 +0.9 138 74.9 79 +1.9 152 0.0 1
235 California Baptist 1.9%   3 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 15 7 - 9 -4.6      -1.0 201 -3.6 280 74.3 91 -8.0 271 0.0 1
267 UMKC 1.2%   2 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 10 -6.0      -3.3 263 -2.6 254 70.0 180 -5.5 236 0.0 1
349 Chicago St. 0.0%   1 - 9 0 - 0 3 - 26 1 - 15 -16.6      -8.0 334 -8.6 350 77.4 40 -15.5 329 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
New Mexico St. 1.6 65.0 20.8 8.4 3.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
Grand Canyon 2.5 27.6 32.1 19.5 10.7 5.6 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.0
Utah Valley 3.2 15.2 24.0 23.7 16.5 10.1 6.1 3.1 1.4 0.1
Seattle 4.2 6.1 13.7 19.2 20.6 16.6 11.8 7.8 3.8 0.2
Cal St. Bakersfield 5.1 2.7 7.1 12.1 16.1 18.1 17.4 14.9 10.7 0.9
UT Rio Grande Valley 5.4 1.7 5.4 10.1 14.7 18.1 19.0 17.2 12.6 1.1
California Baptist 5.8 1.2 3.8 7.5 12.0 16.0 19.2 20.3 18.1 1.9
UMKC 6.3 0.6 2.1 4.7 8.6 13.1 18.1 23.0 26.7 3.3
Chicago St. 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.8 11.9 84.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
New Mexico St. 13 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.9 10.5 15.8 20.2 20.8 15.4 6.3
Grand Canyon 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.9 10.1 14.2 17.5 18.0 14.9 9.5 4.1 0.9
Utah Valley 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.5 6.6 10.5 14.6 16.8 16.6 13.6 8.9 4.5 1.6 0.3
Seattle 9 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.5 8.3 12.4 15.7 16.9 15.4 11.5 7.1 3.6 1.3 0.3 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 6.1 9.8 13.6 15.9 15.9 13.3 9.9 6.3 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 7 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.5 7.1 11.5 15.4 16.8 15.6 12.3 8.4 4.7 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
California Baptist 7 - 9 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.5 9.8 14.2 16.5 16.3 13.6 9.7 6.3 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UMKC 6 - 10 0.2 1.1 3.9 8.6 13.3 17.1 17.2 14.8 10.9 6.8 3.6 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 1 - 15 25.4 31.9 22.5 12.0 5.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico St. 65.0% 51.1 11.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 27.6% 17.1 8.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah Valley 15.2% 8.6 5.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Seattle 6.1% 3.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.7% 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 1.7% 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
California Baptist 1.2% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
UMKC 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Chicago St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico St. 50.0% 47.3% 2.7% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 2.6 9.8 17.2 12.2 5.4 1.2 0.1 50.0 5.1%
Grand Canyon 22.5% 22.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.0 7.8 5.9 1.4 77.5 0.1%
Utah Valley 13.9% 13.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.7 4.5 2.8 0.7 86.1 0.1%
Seattle 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 1.7 92.9 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.0 96.5 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 97.3 0.0%
California Baptist 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 98.1 0.0%
UMKC 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 98.8 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
New Mexico St. 50.0% 2.1% 49.0% 14.2% 4.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 22.5% 0.4% 22.4% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 13.9% 0.3% 13.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 7.1% 0.7% 6.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.5% 0.5% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.7% 0.5% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 1.9% 0.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.1 2.9
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 96.8 1.8
2nd Round 19.8% 0.2 80.2 19.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 5.9% 0.1 94.1 5.9 0.0
Elite Eight 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0