Abilene Christian
Southland
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#174
Achievement Rating+3.5#129
Pace66.1#257
Improvement-0.9#228

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#204
First Shot-1.6#231
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#117
Layup/Dunks-2.1#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#296
Freethrows-0.3#197
Improvement-2.9#301

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#169
First Shot+0.5#155
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#223
Layups/Dunks+1.0#128
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#12
Freethrows-3.9#348
Improvement+2.0#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.9% 35.3% 28.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 6.5% 7.7% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round33.8% 35.2% 27.7%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 267   Arkansas St. W 94-73 78%     1 - 0 +12.2 +8.7 +2.0
  Nov 15, 2018 297   @ Denver W 67-61 66%     2 - 0 +1.0 -0.7 +2.6
  Nov 22, 2018 315   Elon W 72-56 79%     3 - 0 +6.7 +13.9 -3.1
  Nov 23, 2018 186   @ Pacific W 73-71 42%     4 - 0 +3.3 +6.8 -3.3
  Nov 24, 2018 304   @ UC Riverside W 60-48 68%     5 - 0 +6.4 -4.2 +13.2
  Dec 01, 2018 168   @ Pepperdine L 62-77 38%     5 - 1 -12.7 -8.8 -4.1
  Dec 04, 2018 211   Campbell W 83-68 69%     6 - 1 +9.2 +5.4 +4.0
  Dec 15, 2018 9   @ Texas Tech L 48-82 4%     6 - 2 -14.3 -6.6 -10.5
  Dec 21, 2018 321   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 70-68 74%     7 - 2 -5.5 -8.8 +3.2
  Jan 02, 2019 279   New Orleans W 68-58 79%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +0.7 -6.1 +6.8
  Jan 05, 2019 167   @ Sam Houston St. L 68-71 38%     8 - 3 1 - 1 -0.6 +0.5 -1.3
  Jan 09, 2019 317   @ McNeese St. W 73-72 73%     9 - 3 2 - 1 -5.9 +4.9 -10.7
  Jan 12, 2019 258   @ SE Louisiana W 75-72 59%     10 - 3 3 - 1 +0.0 +7.2 -7.0
  Jan 16, 2019 289   Houston Baptist W 75-68 81%     11 - 3 4 - 1 -2.9 -2.7 -0.1
  Jan 19, 2019 333   Northwestern St. W 78-69 90%     12 - 3 5 - 1 -6.0 +0.1 -6.1
  Jan 23, 2019 253   @ Stephen F. Austin L 60-61 58%     12 - 4 5 - 2 -3.7 -14.5 +10.8
  Jan 26, 2019 302   Central Arkansas W 79-56 83%     13 - 4 6 - 2 +12.2 -3.4 +14.5
  Jan 30, 2019 275   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78-71 79%     14 - 4 7 - 2 -2.2 +2.7 -4.8
  Feb 06, 2019 249   @ Lamar W 75-64 57%     15 - 4 8 - 2 +8.5 +0.3 +8.2
  Feb 09, 2019 167   Sam Houston St. L 85-90 59%     15 - 5 8 - 3 -8.0 -0.6 -6.7
  Feb 13, 2019 323   @ Nicholls St. W 64-48 75%     16 - 5 9 - 3 +8.2 -8.5 +17.8
  Feb 16, 2019 337   @ Incarnate Word W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 23, 2019 258   SE Louisiana W 69-61 78%    
  Feb 27, 2019 275   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67-64 60%    
  Mar 02, 2019 302   @ Central Arkansas W 76-71 66%    
  Mar 05, 2019 253   Stephen F. Austin W 72-65 77%    
  Mar 09, 2019 337   Incarnate Word W 77-62 92%    
Projected Record 20.5 - 6.5 13.5 - 4.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.2 6.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 7.5 25.9 33.5 15.9 83.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 4.9 1.7 8.5 3rd
4th 0.3 0.9 0.2 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.4 12.6 27.8 35.5 20.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 21.0% 4.2    1.0 3.2
14-4 5.9% 2.1    0.3 1.7 0.1
13-5 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 1.3 5.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 20.1% 43.0% 43.0% 14.0 0.1 1.6 5.3 1.7 0.0 11.5
14-4 35.5% 38.4% 38.4% 14.9 0.0 2.6 9.7 1.4 21.9
13-5 27.8% 30.6% 30.6% 15.2 0.5 5.9 2.0 19.3
12-6 12.6% 21.3% 21.3% 15.4 0.1 1.6 1.1 9.9
11-7 3.4% 11.7% 11.7% 15.6 0.2 0.2 3.0
10-8 0.6% 7.7% 7.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.9% 33.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.1 1.6 8.5 19.1 4.7 66.1 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.6% 100.0% 14.0 0.6 18.3 61.3 19.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.4%