Abilene Christian
Southland
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#164
Achievement Rating+7.9#86
Pace62.9#331
Improvement-1.4#278

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#165
First Shot-4.4#291
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#8
Layup/Dunks-2.0#239
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#326
Freethrows+0.0#175
Improvement-1.5#297

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#178
First Shot+3.0#77
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#340
Layups/Dunks+2.6#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#11
Freethrows-4.2#334
Improvement+0.1#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.4% 37.3% 27.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 98.3% 99.8% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 97.8% 94.9%
Conference Champion 35.5% 48.2% 35.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four1.1% 0.4% 1.1%
First Round26.9% 37.1% 26.5%
Second Round1.8% 3.6% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 290   Arkansas St. W 94-73 82%     1 - 0 +10.9 +7.3 +2.1
  Nov 15, 2018 249   @ Denver W 67-61 58%     2 - 0 +3.9 +1.7 +3.0
  Nov 22, 2018 304   Elon W 72-56 78%     3 - 0 +7.9 +14.3 -2.2
  Nov 23, 2018 161   @ Pacific W 73-71 38%     4 - 0 +5.0 +6.3 -1.2
  Nov 24, 2018 293   @ UC Riverside W 60-48 66%     5 - 0 +7.7 -1.1 +11.3
  Dec 01, 2018 225   @ Pepperdine L 62-77 52%     5 - 1 -15.6 -11.5 -4.3
  Dec 04, 2018 242   Campbell W 83-68 77%     6 - 1 +7.0 +4.0 +3.2
  Dec 15, 2018 12   @ Texas Tech L 55-74 4%    
  Dec 21, 2018 272   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 02, 2019 263   New Orleans W 70-61 78%    
  Jan 05, 2019 291   @ Sam Houston St. W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 09, 2019 310   @ McNeese St. W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 12, 2019 288   @ SE Louisiana W 66-62 63%    
  Jan 16, 2019 284   Houston Baptist W 82-72 81%    
  Jan 19, 2019 347   Northwestern St. W 76-57 96%    
  Jan 23, 2019 159   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 26, 2019 278   Central Arkansas W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 30, 2019 301   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-59 83%    
  Feb 06, 2019 230   @ Lamar W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 09, 2019 291   Sam Houston St. W 71-61 81%    
  Feb 13, 2019 255   @ Nicholls St. W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 16, 2019 339   @ Incarnate Word W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 23, 2019 288   SE Louisiana W 69-59 81%    
  Feb 27, 2019 301   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67-62 66%    
  Mar 02, 2019 278   @ Central Arkansas W 75-72 62%    
  Mar 05, 2019 159   Stephen F. Austin W 70-67 60%    
  Mar 09, 2019 339   Incarnate Word W 77-61 92%    
Projected Record 19.5 - 7.5 12.9 - 5.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.0 7.7 10.3 8.6 4.3 1.2 35.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.7 7.7 6.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.0 4.2 1.0 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.7 4.7 7.4 10.6 13.7 15.6 15.5 13.0 9.0 4.3 1.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 99.9% 4.3    4.2 0.1
16-2 95.1% 8.6    7.5 1.1 0.0
15-3 79.0% 10.3    7.1 2.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 49.7% 7.7    3.5 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.5% 3.0    0.7 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.5% 35.5 24.1 8.7 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 63.0% 62.9% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2%
17-1 4.3% 56.8% 56.8% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.9 0.1%
16-2 9.0% 50.5% 50.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.1 0.1 4.5
15-3 13.0% 43.4% 43.4% 14.5 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.6 0.2 7.4
14-4 15.5% 36.1% 36.1% 14.8 0.1 1.4 3.4 0.7 9.9
13-5 15.6% 26.0% 26.0% 15.1 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.0 11.5
12-6 13.7% 18.0% 18.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.1 11.3
11-7 10.6% 10.9% 10.9% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 9.4
10-8 7.4% 6.4% 6.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 7.0
9-9 4.7% 5.1% 5.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.4
8-10 2.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.6
7-11 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.7% 0.7
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.7 8.0 11.7 4.5 72.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.0 1.9 18.9 56.6 18.9 3.8