Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.2#328
Achievement Rating-7.4#259
Pace70.2#172
Improvement-1.1#252

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#305
First Shot-6.4#320
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#84
Layup/Dunks+0.3#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#54
Freethrows-4.2#337
Improvement-0.1#180

Defense
Total Defense-6.3#330
First Shot-7.2#346
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#118
Layups/Dunks-7.4#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#104
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#305
Freethrows+2.9#36
Improvement-0.9#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.4% 11.5% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 15.9% 39.4% 14.6%
.500 or above in Conference 57.1% 75.2% 56.0%
Conference Champion 6.1% 12.8% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 2.4% 6.8%
First Four5.9% 9.4% 5.7%
First Round2.9% 6.1% 2.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 5.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 22   @ Iowa St. L 53-79 1%     0 - 1 -9.8 -13.5 +4.0
  Nov 08, 2018 96   @ South Dakota St. L 61-78 4%     0 - 2 -8.6 -3.5 -7.1
  Nov 21, 2018 39   @ Iowa L 78-105 2%     0 - 3 -12.9 +0.2 -10.0
  Nov 28, 2018 130   @ Akron L 54-86 7%     0 - 4 -26.3 -12.6 -14.8
  Dec 12, 2018 127   @ Boise St. L 64-81 5%    
  Dec 15, 2018 51   @ Utah St. L 64-88 1%    
  Dec 18, 2018 292   @ Sam Houston St. L 66-73 25%    
  Dec 21, 2018 109   Liberty L 61-77 7%    
  Jan 05, 2019 288   Grambling St. L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 07, 2019 337   Jackson St. W 73-69 66%    
  Jan 12, 2019 322   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 14, 2019 348   @ Mississippi Valley W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 19, 2019 352   @ Alabama A&M W 70-67 62%    
  Jan 26, 2019 345   Alcorn St. W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 28, 2019 333   Southern W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 02, 2019 221   @ Texas Southern L 74-85 17%    
  Feb 04, 2019 271   @ Prairie View L 71-79 23%    
  Feb 09, 2019 322   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 11, 2019 348   Mississippi Valley W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 16, 2019 352   Alabama A&M W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 23, 2019 345   @ Alcorn St. W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 25, 2019 333   @ Southern L 74-76 42%    
  Mar 02, 2019 221   Texas Southern L 77-82 34%    
  Mar 04, 2019 271   Prairie View L 74-76 43%    
  Mar 07, 2019 288   @ Grambling St. L 71-78 27%    
  Mar 09, 2019 337   @ Jackson St. L 70-72 44%    
Projected Record 9.4 - 16.6 9.0 - 9.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.0 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.8 4.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.9 4.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.2 3.7 0.6 0.0 14.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.5 5.7 8.3 10.5 12.0 12.7 12.3 10.8 8.4 6.0 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 95.7% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 80.6% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
14-4 50.0% 1.9    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 21.0% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 42.4% 42.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 36.0% 36.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
16-2 0.8% 31.4% 31.4% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.6
15-3 1.9% 25.8% 25.8% 15.9 0.0 0.5 1.4
14-4 3.7% 20.9% 20.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8 2.9
13-5 6.0% 16.3% 16.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0 5.0
12-6 8.4% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 1.0 7.4
11-7 10.8% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9 9.9
10-8 12.3% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.7 11.6
9-9 12.7% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.6 12.2
8-10 12.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 11.7
7-11 10.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 10.3
6-12 8.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.2
5-13 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-14 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.3 93.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%