Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.1#320
Achievement Rating-9.7#303
Pace67.2#231
Improvement+0.9#146

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#312
First Shot-8.5#341
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#26
Layup/Dunks-4.5#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#211
Freethrows-1.6#282
Improvement+0.6#161

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#290
First Shot-4.1#299
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#212
Layups/Dunks-2.5#276
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#299
Freethrows-0.5#214
Improvement+0.3#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 8.4% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5.7% 8.1% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 100.0% 91.8%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.5% 8.2% 6.3%
First Round3.2% 3.7% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Away) - 63.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 12   @ Iowa St. L 53-79 1%     0 - 1 -7.0 -13.1 +6.4
  Nov 08, 2018 77   @ South Dakota St. L 61-78 5%     0 - 2 -7.9 -2.5 -7.5
  Nov 21, 2018 26   @ Iowa L 78-105 2%     0 - 3 -11.3 -0.1 -8.2
  Nov 28, 2018 126   @ Akron L 54-86 8%     0 - 4 -26.0 -9.1 -18.0
  Dec 12, 2018 125   @ Boise St. L 57-67 8%     0 - 5 -4.0 -8.5 +3.6
  Dec 15, 2018 49   @ Utah St. L 48-86 3%     0 - 6 -25.9 -23.7 +1.3
  Dec 18, 2018 173   @ Sam Houston St. L 57-78 13%     0 - 7 -18.7 -15.0 -3.4
  Dec 21, 2018 99   Liberty L 55-73 9%     0 - 8 -13.0 -9.4 -5.7
  Dec 22, 2018 213   Campbell L 69-70 25%     0 - 9 -4.2 +1.1 -5.4
  Jan 05, 2019 284   Grambling St. W 74-53 49%     1 - 9 1 - 0 +11.3 -1.4 +12.2
  Jan 07, 2019 333   Jackson St. W 59-57 68%     2 - 9 2 - 0 -12.8 -13.5 +0.8
  Jan 12, 2019 330   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 71-82 44%     2 - 10 2 - 1 -19.6 -5.8 -13.7
  Jan 14, 2019 350   @ Mississippi Valley W 81-79 68%     3 - 10 3 - 1 -12.9 -2.6 -10.5
  Jan 19, 2019 346   @ Alabama A&M W 72-54 59%     4 - 10 4 - 1 +5.7 +0.6 +6.2
  Jan 26, 2019 349   Alcorn St. W 76-63 81%     5 - 10 5 - 1 -6.5 +0.7 -6.4
  Jan 28, 2019 342   Southern W 69-65 75%     6 - 10 6 - 1 -13.2 -15.6 +2.2
  Feb 02, 2019 228   @ Texas Southern L 59-83 20%     6 - 11 6 - 2 -25.4 -15.2 -10.6
  Feb 04, 2019 265   @ Prairie View L 67-69 25%     6 - 12 6 - 3 -5.1 -5.5 +0.3
  Feb 09, 2019 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 69-75 65%     6 - 13 6 - 4 -20.1 -7.3 -13.1
  Feb 11, 2019 350   Mississippi Valley W 82-59 83%     7 - 13 7 - 4 +2.6 -0.5 +2.7
  Feb 16, 2019 346   Alabama A&M W 68-62 77%     8 - 13 8 - 4 -11.8 -3.8 -7.5
  Feb 23, 2019 349   @ Alcorn St. W 67-63 64%    
  Feb 25, 2019 342   @ Southern W 69-67 55%    
  Mar 02, 2019 228   Texas Southern L 76-79 39%    
  Mar 04, 2019 265   Prairie View L 72-73 46%    
  Mar 07, 2019 284   @ Grambling St. L 65-71 28%    
  Mar 09, 2019 333   @ Jackson St. L 63-64 46%    
Projected Record 10.8 - 16.2 10.8 - 7.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.4 1.1 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.3 21.4 16.1 3.3 46.1 3rd
4th 0.0 3.1 15.8 6.9 0.1 25.9 4th
5th 0.9 7.6 4.8 0.1 13.3 5th
6th 2.0 2.4 0.1 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 3.0 13.1 26.0 29.0 19.7 7.8 1.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 20.8% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1
13-5 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.4% 18.6% 18.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 1.1
13-5 7.8% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 1.0 6.8
12-6 19.7% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0 17.7
11-7 29.0% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 2.2 26.8
10-8 26.0% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 1.5 24.5
9-9 13.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.6 12.5
8-10 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 2.9
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.6 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 16.0 1.9 98.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 2.0%