Alabama
Southeastern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#44
Achievement Rating+10.5#51
Pace71.3#117
Improvement+2.1#87

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#44
First Shot+3.5#67
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#59
Layup/Dunks+1.5#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#223
Freethrows+2.8#26
Improvement+1.2#120

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#61
First Shot+3.6#69
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#104
Layups/Dunks+1.2#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#44
Freethrows+1.2#101
Improvement+0.9#126
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.5% 76.1% 53.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.2% 75.8% 53.6%
Average Seed 9.6 9.4 9.9
.500 or above 98.8% 100.0% 97.5%
.500 or above in Conference 67.2% 83.8% 48.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.6% 12.0% 13.4%
First Round58.9% 69.9% 46.8%
Second Round23.6% 28.8% 18.0%
Sweet Sixteen4.4% 5.4% 3.4%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.7% 1.0%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Away) - 52.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 342   Southern W 82-62 98%     1 - 0 +2.8 -2.0 +4.0
  Nov 11, 2018 191   Appalachian St. W 81-73 90%     2 - 0 +3.4 -1.1 +4.0
  Nov 15, 2018 101   Northeastern L 52-68 67%     2 - 1 -11.1 -11.8 -2.0
  Nov 16, 2018 120   Ball St. W 79-61 71%     3 - 1 +21.7 +7.7 +13.8
  Nov 18, 2018 112   Wichita St. W 90-86 70%     4 - 1 +8.1 +20.6 -12.5
  Nov 26, 2018 71   Murray St. W 78-72 70%     5 - 1 +10.2 -0.3 +10.0
  Nov 29, 2018 52   @ Central Florida L 64-70 41%     5 - 2 +5.9 -0.4 +6.1
  Dec 04, 2018 131   Georgia St. L 80-83 82%     5 - 3 -3.0 +0.4 -3.2
  Dec 09, 2018 84   Arizona W 76-73 73%     6 - 3 +6.2 +2.7 +3.3
  Dec 18, 2018 99   Liberty W 84-75 67%     7 - 3 +14.0 +10.2 +3.5
  Dec 21, 2018 57   Penn St. W 73-64 66%     8 - 3 +14.3 +5.0 +9.3
  Dec 30, 2018 274   @ Stephen F. Austin W 79-69 89%     9 - 3 +6.3 +3.8 +2.3
  Jan 05, 2019 5   Kentucky W 77-75 23%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +19.2 +5.1 +13.9
  Jan 08, 2019 22   @ LSU L 79-88 23%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +8.1 +7.8 +0.8
  Jan 12, 2019 85   Texas A&M L 80-81 73%     10 - 5 1 - 2 +2.2 +8.1 -5.9
  Jan 16, 2019 89   @ Missouri W 70-60 54%     11 - 5 2 - 2 +18.6 +9.4 +10.1
  Jan 19, 2019 7   @ Tennessee L 68-71 12%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +19.2 +3.1 +16.1
  Jan 22, 2019 38   Mississippi W 74-53 55%     12 - 6 3 - 3 +29.2 +11.7 +19.7
  Jan 26, 2019 33   @ Baylor L 68-73 32%     12 - 7 +9.5 +7.9 +1.1
  Jan 29, 2019 23   Mississippi St. W 83-79 42%     13 - 7 4 - 3 +15.6 +7.5 +7.8
  Feb 02, 2019 14   @ Auburn L 63-84 20%     13 - 8 4 - 4 -2.6 -1.5 -1.4
  Feb 06, 2019 113   Georgia W 89-74 78%     14 - 8 5 - 4 +16.3 +9.6 +5.6
  Feb 09, 2019 119   @ Vanderbilt W 77-67 61%     15 - 8 6 - 4 +16.5 +6.9 +9.5
  Feb 12, 2019 23   @ Mississippi St. L 62-81 23%     15 - 9 6 - 5 -1.9 -0.8 -2.1
  Feb 16, 2019 29   Florida L 53-71 48%     15 - 10 6 - 6 -7.9 -3.0 -7.9
  Feb 19, 2019 85   @ Texas A&M W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 23, 2019 119   Vanderbilt W 77-69 79%    
  Feb 26, 2019 74   @ South Carolina W 77-76 50%    
  Mar 02, 2019 22   LSU L 77-79 43%    
  Mar 05, 2019 14   Auburn L 75-78 39%    
  Mar 09, 2019 58   @ Arkansas L 75-76 45%    
Projected Record 18.1 - 12.9 9.1 - 8.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.3 1.8 8.6 4th
5th 0.4 7.8 4.8 0.2 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 3.6 9.8 0.7 14.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 10.6 4.4 0.0 15.8 7th
8th 0.2 5.5 11.2 0.7 0.0 17.6 8th
9th 0.0 3.2 12.7 4.0 0.0 20.0 9th
10th 1.0 5.5 3.3 0.1 9.8 10th
11th 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.4 9.1 22.3 29.9 24.2 10.8 2.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.2% 99.4% 3.9% 95.5% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
11-7 10.8% 96.4% 2.4% 94.1% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.4 96.3%
10-8 24.2% 89.3% 1.3% 88.0% 9.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 7.0 6.1 3.0 0.6 0.0 2.6 89.1%
9-9 29.9% 76.7% 0.6% 76.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.9 7.4 5.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.0 76.5%
8-10 22.3% 34.8% 0.4% 34.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 14.6 34.5%
7-11 9.1% 6.0% 0.3% 5.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.6 5.7%
6-12 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.4%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 65.5% 0.9% 64.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.5 9.6 17.1 16.7 12.0 4.7 0.9 0.0 34.5 65.2%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.4 11.6 46.5 34.9 7.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 6.7 0.9 8.5 35.7 37.1 14.3 3.1 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 99.6% 7.4 1.2 17.0 38.1 30.4 10.9 1.8 0.3
Lose Out 0.7%