Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-15.9#345
Achievement Rating-23.6#352
Pace66.7#258
Improvement-0.4#212

Offense
Total Offense-9.3#344
First Shot-8.6#343
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#207
Layup/Dunks-6.9#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
Freethrows-3.4#322
Improvement+0.3#141

Defense
Total Defense-6.7#337
First Shot-4.2#296
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#318
Layups/Dunks-5.1#325
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#111
Freethrows-0.6#215
Improvement-0.8#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 2.5% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.4% 6.0% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 18.4% 31.0% 17.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.5% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 27.6% 16.4% 28.4%
First Four1.2% 2.4% 1.1%
First Round0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 6.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 120   @ Tulsa L 56-73 3%     0 - 1 -10.4 -11.5 +0.5
  Nov 16, 2018 78   @ Vanderbilt L 54-79 2%     0 - 2 -15.5 -17.5 +3.1
  Nov 18, 2018 143   @ Kent St. L 48-79 4%     0 - 3 -26.4 -24.2 -2.3
  Nov 23, 2018 107   @ Liberty L 54-76 3%     0 - 4 -14.5 -6.1 -12.3
  Nov 24, 2018 352   Savannah St. L 75-80 59%     0 - 5 -23.3 -10.1 -12.9
  Nov 26, 2018 17   @ Mississippi St. L 65-88 1%     0 - 6 -6.1 +0.5 -6.4
  Dec 18, 2018 217   @ UAB L 60-76 7%    
  Dec 21, 2018 192   @ South Florida L 56-73 6%    
  Jan 05, 2019 220   Texas Southern L 71-80 19%    
  Jan 07, 2019 286   Prairie View L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 12, 2019 336   @ Jackson St. L 64-70 28%    
  Jan 14, 2019 288   @ Grambling St. L 64-76 14%    
  Jan 19, 2019 346   Mississippi Valley W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 21, 2019 323   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66-68 41%    
  Jan 26, 2019 321   @ Alabama St. L 65-74 22%    
  Jan 28, 2019 351   @ Alabama A&M L 64-65 46%    
  Feb 02, 2019 333   Southern L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 09, 2019 336   Jackson St. L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 11, 2019 288   Grambling St. L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 16, 2019 346   @ Mississippi Valley L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 18, 2019 323   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 23, 2019 321   Alabama St. L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 25, 2019 351   Alabama A&M W 67-62 66%    
  Mar 02, 2019 333   @ Southern L 67-74 27%    
  Mar 07, 2019 220   @ Texas Southern L 68-83 9%    
  Mar 09, 2019 286   @ Prairie View L 66-78 14%    
Projected Record 6.2 - 19.8 6.1 - 11.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.4 6.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 14.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.9 6.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 17.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.3 6.6 6.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 19.1 9th
10th 0.6 2.5 4.8 5.6 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 18.5 10th
Total 0.6 2.5 5.5 9.0 12.2 14.3 14.1 12.9 10.4 7.7 5.0 3.1 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 93.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 84.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 60.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 24.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 15.8% 15.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.8% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 0.1 0.7
12-6 1.5% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.1 1.4
11-7 3.1% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 2.9
10-8 5.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.2 4.8
9-9 7.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 7.5
8-10 10.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 10.2
7-11 12.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.7
6-12 14.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.1
5-13 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.3
4-14 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.2
3-15 9.0% 9.0
2-16 5.5% 5.5
1-17 2.5% 2.5
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%