Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-16.7#349
Achievement Rating-17.8#342
Pace64.4#299
Improvement+1.8#98

Offense
Total Offense-10.7#347
First Shot-11.8#352
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#87
Layup/Dunks-5.3#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#293
Freethrows-4.4#350
Improvement+1.8#91

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#329
First Shot-5.1#319
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#266
Layups/Dunks-6.1#346
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#94
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#169
Freethrows-0.3#207
Improvement+0.0#185
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 2.2% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.5% 5.0% 22.2%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Away) - 21.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 96   @ Tulsa L 56-73 2%     0 - 1 -9.2 -9.7 -0.1
  Nov 16, 2018 119   @ Vanderbilt L 54-79 3%     0 - 2 -18.5 -17.2 -0.1
  Nov 18, 2018 142   @ Kent St. L 48-79 3%     0 - 3 -26.5 -24.3 -2.3
  Nov 23, 2018 99   @ Liberty L 54-76 2%     0 - 4 -14.2 -6.2 -11.9
  Nov 24, 2018 348   Savannah St. L 75-80 45%     0 - 5 -20.4 -10.3 -9.8
  Nov 26, 2018 23   @ Mississippi St. L 65-88 1%     0 - 6 -5.9 -1.5 -4.2
  Dec 18, 2018 162   @ UAB L 49-76 5%     0 - 7 -24.4 -16.4 -11.7
  Dec 21, 2018 118   @ South Florida L 44-83 3%     0 - 8 -32.4 -20.4 -13.5
  Jan 05, 2019 228   Texas Southern L 70-87 18%     0 - 9 0 - 1 -23.9 -11.6 -11.3
  Jan 07, 2019 265   Prairie View L 54-57 22%     0 - 10 0 - 2 -11.7 -22.6 +11.0
  Jan 12, 2019 333   @ Jackson St. L 52-59 24%     0 - 11 0 - 3 -16.3 -14.1 -3.1
  Jan 14, 2019 284   @ Grambling St. L 42-77 12%     0 - 12 0 - 4 -39.2 -30.3 -7.7
  Jan 19, 2019 350   Mississippi Valley W 63-57 64%     1 - 12 1 - 4 -14.4 -15.3 +1.1
  Jan 21, 2019 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 74-69 40%     2 - 12 2 - 4 -9.1 -0.8 -8.1
  Jan 26, 2019 320   @ Alabama St. L 63-76 19%     2 - 13 2 - 5 -20.3 -8.7 -12.5
  Jan 28, 2019 346   @ Alabama A&M L 62-71 33%     2 - 14 2 - 6 -21.3 -12.6 -8.9
  Feb 02, 2019 342   Southern W 76-64 52%     3 - 14 3 - 6 -5.2 -0.1 -4.4
  Feb 09, 2019 333   Jackson St. W 66-52 42%     4 - 14 4 - 6 -0.8 +1.6 -0.1
  Feb 11, 2019 284   Grambling St. L 53-65 25%     4 - 15 4 - 7 -21.7 -16.7 -5.9
  Feb 16, 2019 350   @ Mississippi Valley L 68-76 43%     4 - 16 4 - 8 -22.9 -12.2 -10.5
  Feb 18, 2019 330   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 61-69 22%    
  Feb 23, 2019 320   Alabama St. L 63-67 36%    
  Feb 25, 2019 346   Alabama A&M W 62-61 55%    
  Mar 02, 2019 342   @ Southern L 63-68 31%    
  Mar 07, 2019 228   @ Texas Southern L 66-81 7%    
  Mar 09, 2019 265   @ Prairie View L 63-77 10%    
Projected Record 5.6 - 20.4 5.6 - 12.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.3 2.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 6.7 23.4 12.5 1.7 0.0 44.3 7th
8th 1.6 20.0 7.6 0.5 0.0 29.8 8th
9th 9.2 6.8 0.2 16.2 9th
10th 4.0 0.5 0.0 4.4 10th
Total 14.8 33.9 31.6 15.2 4.0 0.5 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.5% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 4.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.0
7-11 15.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 15.0
6-12 31.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 31.4
5-13 33.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 33.8
4-14 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 14.7%