American
Patriot League
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#191
Achievement Rating+0.1#171
Pace65.8#283
Improvement-2.0#304

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#174
First Shot+2.5#107
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#323
Layup/Dunks+3.7#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#152
Freethrows+0.7#135
Improvement+2.0#35

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#218
First Shot+0.1#167
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#292
Layups/Dunks-4.4#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#19
Freethrows-2.2#293
Improvement-4.0#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 11.0% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 84.8% 86.6% 65.7%
.500 or above in Conference 70.7% 71.8% 58.2%
Conference Champion 12.4% 12.9% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 2.6% 5.2%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.7%
First Round10.1% 10.5% 6.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 91.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 170   @ George Mason W 78-75 34%     1 - 0 +5.5 +0.7 +4.5
  Nov 12, 2018 48   @ Northwestern L 51-63 9%     1 - 1 +0.7 -9.2 +8.7
  Nov 16, 2018 341   New Hampshire W 68-44 91%     2 - 1 +7.6 -7.3 +16.1
  Nov 24, 2018 211   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 73-69 43%     3 - 1 +4.1 +5.4 -1.2
  Nov 27, 2018 321   @ VMI W 74-64 70%     4 - 1 +2.6 -3.4 +5.8
  Nov 30, 2018 260   Wagner L 58-64 74%     4 - 2 -14.6 -9.0 -6.6
  Dec 04, 2018 215   St. Francis (PA) W 95-82 66%     5 - 2 +6.9 +13.1 -6.6
  Dec 08, 2018 285   @ Howard L 83-85 58%     5 - 3 -5.9 +7.1 -13.1
  Dec 18, 2018 340   Mount St. Mary's W 78-64 91%    
  Dec 22, 2018 348   Maryland Eastern Shore W 74-57 95%    
  Dec 29, 2018 279   @ George Washington W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 02, 2019 186   Boston University W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 06, 2019 166   @ Colgate L 68-72 34%    
  Jan 09, 2019 311   Navy W 72-62 82%    
  Jan 12, 2019 160   @ Bucknell L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 16, 2019 149   @ Lehigh L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 19, 2019 316   Lafayette W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 21, 2019 186   @ Boston University L 66-69 38%    
  Jan 26, 2019 160   Bucknell W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 30, 2019 298   @ Loyola Maryland W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 02, 2019 155   Holy Cross W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 06, 2019 311   @ Navy W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 09, 2019 262   Army W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 13, 2019 298   Loyola Maryland W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 16, 2019 166   Colgate W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 20, 2019 316   @ Lafayette W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 24, 2019 262   @ Army W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 27, 2019 149   Lehigh W 75-74 52%    
  Mar 02, 2019 155   @ Holy Cross L 64-69 32%    
Projected Record 17.4 - 11.6 10.0 - 8.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 2.9 3.8 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 12.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.9 4.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.8 4.6 1.2 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.1 4.7 1.0 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.9 4.7 0.9 0.0 13.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 4.1 0.9 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.2 8.1 10.7 12.9 14.0 13.4 11.5 8.6 5.6 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 99.1% 1.2    1.2 0.1
15-3 91.0% 2.7    2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-4 67.9% 3.8    2.2 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 34.2% 2.9    1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 9.3% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 7.2 3.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 56.9% 54.2% 2.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1%
17-1 0.4% 41.4% 40.9% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9%
16-2 1.3% 34.6% 34.6% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8
15-3 3.0% 29.2% 29.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.1
14-4 5.6% 24.5% 24.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 4.2
13-5 8.6% 20.1% 20.1% 14.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.1 6.9
12-6 11.5% 15.5% 15.5% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.4 9.7
11-7 13.4% 11.3% 11.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.5 11.8
10-8 14.0% 8.4% 8.4% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.7 12.8
9-9 12.9% 6.1% 6.1% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 12.1
8-10 10.7% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 10.3
7-11 8.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 7.9
6-12 5.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.1
5-13 3.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.0
4-14 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.5 3.1 89.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 11.9 5.6 22.2 52.8 19.4