American
Patriot League
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#205
Achievement Rating-4.1#220
Pace66.3#249
Improvement-1.1#240

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#222
First Shot+1.1#152
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#334
Layup/Dunks+6.3#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#270
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#305
Freethrows+0.6#132
Improvement-0.3#206

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#203
First Shot+0.6#153
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#310
Layups/Dunks-4.3#329
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.8#1
Freethrows-2.2#311
Improvement-0.8#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 10.8% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 81.2% 94.4% 68.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 93.2% 63.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four2.2% 1.9% 2.4%
First Round8.1% 10.0% 6.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Home) - 49.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 132   @ George Mason W 78-75 22%     1 - 0 +8.3 +2.7 +5.4
  Nov 12, 2018 63   @ Northwestern L 51-63 12%     1 - 1 -1.9 -7.9 +4.7
  Nov 16, 2018 346   New Hampshire W 68-44 92%     2 - 1 +6.0 -5.3 +12.7
  Nov 24, 2018 213   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 73-69 42%     3 - 1 +3.4 +6.2 -2.7
  Nov 27, 2018 320   @ VMI W 74-64 68%     4 - 1 +2.6 -5.1 +7.4
  Nov 30, 2018 277   Wagner L 58-64 73%     4 - 2 -15.2 -6.9 -9.2
  Dec 04, 2018 233   St. Francis (PA) W 95-82 67%     5 - 2 +5.8 +12.4 -6.9
  Dec 08, 2018 313   @ Howard L 83-85 65%     5 - 3 -8.6 +7.3 -15.9
  Dec 18, 2018 328   Mount St. Mary's L 55-56 85%     5 - 4 -15.0 -11.7 -3.4
  Dec 22, 2018 352   Maryland Eastern Shore W 82-58 96%     6 - 4 +0.7 -1.8 +2.2
  Dec 29, 2018 255   @ George Washington L 67-71 50%     6 - 5 -6.8 -14.5 +8.3
  Jan 02, 2019 242   Boston University W 86-74 68%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +4.5 +8.6 -3.9
  Jan 06, 2019 156   @ Colgate L 69-73 28%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -0.8 -1.8 +0.9
  Jan 09, 2019 305   Navy W 71-63 79%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -3.0 -0.2 -2.3
  Jan 12, 2019 143   @ Bucknell L 54-55 25%     8 - 7 2 - 2 +3.4 -15.5 +18.8
  Jan 16, 2019 159   @ Lehigh L 76-83 29%     8 - 8 2 - 3 -4.1 -2.9 -0.8
  Jan 19, 2019 293   Lafayette L 79-84 76%     8 - 9 2 - 4 -15.2 -7.6 -7.2
  Jan 23, 2019 242   @ Boston University W 70-66 47%     9 - 9 3 - 4 +2.0 -0.1 +2.3
  Jan 26, 2019 143   Bucknell W 76-68 44%     10 - 9 4 - 4 +7.0 +1.7 +5.3
  Jan 30, 2019 281   @ Loyola Maryland W 74-68 55%     11 - 9 5 - 4 +2.0 -2.0 +4.0
  Feb 02, 2019 226   Holy Cross W 66-49 65%     12 - 9 6 - 4 +10.4 -2.5 +14.9
  Feb 06, 2019 305   @ Navy L 67-77 61%     12 - 10 6 - 5 -15.6 -5.2 -10.7
  Feb 09, 2019 234   Army W 71-68 67%     13 - 10 7 - 5 -4.2 +0.1 -4.2
  Feb 13, 2019 281   Loyola Maryland L 84-86 74%     13 - 11 7 - 6 -11.4 +5.1 -16.5
  Feb 16, 2019 156   Colgate L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 20, 2019 293   @ Lafayette W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 24, 2019 234   @ Army L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 27, 2019 159   Lehigh L 76-77 50%    
  Mar 02, 2019 226   @ Holy Cross L 64-66 43%    
Projected Record 15.4 - 13.6 9.4 - 8.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.4 3.4 2.6 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 7.1 8.7 0.7 17.2 3rd
4th 1.6 16.9 19.8 3.4 41.7 4th
5th 0.5 11.4 12.7 1.8 0.0 26.3 5th
6th 1.8 4.0 0.2 5.9 6th
7th 1.7 0.3 2.0 7th
8th 0.4 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 4.4 17.2 30.4 29.0 15.5 3.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 5.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.5% 16.2% 16.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.9
11-7 15.5% 14.2% 14.2% 15.5 0.0 1.0 1.2 13.3
10-8 29.0% 10.4% 10.4% 15.7 0.0 0.9 2.1 26.0
9-9 30.4% 7.7% 7.7% 15.8 0.4 2.0 28.1
8-10 17.2% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 16.3
7-11 4.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.3
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 2.7 6.3 90.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 15.0 0.6 14.9 72.0 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%
Lose Out 2.1%