Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#199
Achievement Rating-7.3#276
Pace77.1#29
Improvement+0.4#170

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#138
First Shot+2.7#99
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#272
Layup/Dunks-0.9#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#106
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#97
Freethrows+0.0#174
Improvement-0.6#216

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#265
First Shot-2.3#244
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#286
Layups/Dunks-1.3#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#165
Freethrows+0.1#176
Improvement+1.0#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 2.8% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.1% 10.8% 1.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 60.0% 45.3% 75.6%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 1.7%
First Round1.9% 2.3% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 51.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2018 44   @ Alabama L 73-81 9%     0 - 1 +4.2 +3.2 +1.5
  Nov 15, 2018 10   Purdue L 70-92 5%     0 - 2 -5.4 +0.5 -5.4
  Nov 16, 2018 110   Wichita St. L 76-82 27%     0 - 3 -2.0 +7.2 -9.3
  Nov 18, 2018 116   Ball St. L 86-94 28%     0 - 4 -4.2 -3.2 +0.7
  Nov 30, 2018 266   @ East Carolina L 81-83 54%     0 - 5 -5.4 +5.4 -10.7
  Dec 04, 2018 313   Howard W 100-86 82%     1 - 5 +2.0 +6.3 -6.2
  Dec 08, 2018 314   NC Central W 82-73 82%     2 - 5 -3.0 +0.5 -4.0
  Dec 15, 2018 118   @ South Florida L 69-76 20%     2 - 6 -0.5 -0.3 +0.1
  Dec 18, 2018 67   @ Georgetown L 73-83 13%     2 - 7 -0.1 -2.5 +3.6
  Dec 30, 2018 123   @ Saint Louis L 55-83 22%     2 - 8 -22.0 -9.3 -13.9
  Jan 03, 2019 219   @ South Alabama L 73-79 44%     2 - 9 0 - 1 -6.8 -5.6 -0.8
  Jan 05, 2019 238   @ Troy L 85-89 48%     2 - 10 0 - 2 -5.8 +9.9 -15.6
  Jan 10, 2019 167   Texas Arlington L 72-82 52%     2 - 11 0 - 3 -12.9 -8.9 -3.5
  Jan 12, 2019 124   Texas St. L 69-70 39%     2 - 12 0 - 4 -0.4 +0.6 -1.0
  Jan 19, 2019 157   @ Coastal Carolina L 72-89 31%     2 - 13 0 - 5 -14.1 -4.2 -8.8
  Jan 24, 2019 265   @ Arkansas St. L 81-82 54%     2 - 14 0 - 6 -4.4 -3.1 -1.2
  Jan 26, 2019 205   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 77-73 41%     3 - 14 1 - 6 +4.0 -1.6 +5.2
  Jan 31, 2019 190   Louisiana W 104-77 59%     4 - 14 2 - 6 +22.4 +9.4 +8.5
  Feb 02, 2019 154   Louisiana Monroe W 85-84 49%     5 - 14 3 - 6 -1.1 +9.2 -10.2
  Feb 07, 2019 124   @ Texas St. L 71-74 22%     5 - 15 3 - 7 +3.0 +3.4 -0.4
  Feb 09, 2019 167   @ Texas Arlington L 68-78 32%     5 - 16 3 - 8 -7.5 -6.1 -1.5
  Feb 16, 2019 157   Coastal Carolina W 79-78 52%    
  Feb 21, 2019 131   Georgia St. L 79-81 42%    
  Feb 23, 2019 127   Georgia Southern L 84-87 42%    
  Feb 28, 2019 154   @ Louisiana Monroe L 78-84 29%    
  Mar 03, 2019 190   @ Louisiana L 85-88 38%    
  Mar 07, 2019 238   Troy W 83-78 69%    
  Mar 09, 2019 219   South Alabama W 78-74 65%    
Projected Record 8.4 - 19.6 6.4 - 11.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.4 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.2 3.2 7th
8th 0.7 4.2 1.8 0.1 6.8 8th
9th 0.4 6.7 6.8 0.6 0.0 14.5 9th
10th 0.0 4.6 12.0 2.4 0.0 19.1 10th
11th 1.7 12.5 5.1 0.1 19.4 11th
12th 1.4 7.4 16.6 9.5 0.5 35.5 12th
Total 1.4 7.4 18.4 27.1 24.9 14.7 5.2 0.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.9% 4.9% 4.9% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
9-9 5.2% 5.3% 5.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.9
8-10 14.7% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.1 0.4 14.2
7-11 24.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7 24.2
6-12 27.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.5 26.6
5-13 18.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 18.1
4-14 7.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.3
3-15 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 13.8 36.4 50.0 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 1.1%