Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#180
Achievement Rating-6.8#253
Pace75.7#64
Improvement+0.2#158

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#125
First Shot+1.3#140
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#151
Layup/Dunks+2.0#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#212
Freethrows+0.6#138
Improvement+0.6#130

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#267
First Shot-1.3#214
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#287
Layups/Dunks-2.8#274
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#45
Freethrows-1.8#276
Improvement-0.3#206
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 6.7% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 26.4% 38.8% 17.8%
.500 or above in Conference 55.4% 62.7% 50.4%
Conference Champion 6.0% 8.1% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 7.1% 4.9% 8.6%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round5.0% 6.5% 3.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Away) - 40.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2018 62   @ Alabama L 73-81 13%     0 - 1 +2.9 +2.0 +1.4
  Nov 15, 2018 20   Purdue L 70-92 9%     0 - 2 -8.7 +0.3 -8.5
  Nov 16, 2018 115   Wichita St. L 76-82 30%     0 - 3 -1.8 +7.1 -9.0
  Nov 18, 2018 104   Ball St. L 86-94 28%     0 - 4 -3.2 -4.4 +2.9
  Nov 30, 2018 259   @ East Carolina L 81-83 55%     0 - 5 -4.6 +6.4 -10.9
  Dec 04, 2018 285   Howard W 100-86 79%     1 - 5 +4.1 +5.9 -3.7
  Dec 08, 2018 313   NC Central W 82-73 84%     2 - 5 -3.1 -1.1 -2.6
  Dec 15, 2018 193   @ South Florida L 71-73 41%    
  Dec 18, 2018 87   @ Georgetown L 79-89 17%    
  Dec 30, 2018 76   @ Saint Louis L 66-77 16%    
  Jan 03, 2019 195   @ South Alabama L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 05, 2019 206   @ Troy L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 10, 2019 254   Texas Arlington W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 12, 2019 142   Texas St. W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 19, 2019 188   @ Coastal Carolina L 77-80 40%    
  Jan 24, 2019 290   @ Arkansas St. W 82-79 60%    
  Jan 26, 2019 238   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 79-78 51%    
  Jan 31, 2019 118   Louisiana L 82-84 42%    
  Feb 02, 2019 207   Louisiana Monroe W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 07, 2019 142   @ Texas St. L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 09, 2019 254   @ Texas Arlington W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 16, 2019 188   Coastal Carolina W 80-77 61%    
  Feb 21, 2019 107   Georgia St. L 77-80 40%    
  Feb 23, 2019 130   Georgia Southern L 87-88 46%    
  Feb 28, 2019 207   @ Louisiana Monroe L 73-75 44%    
  Mar 03, 2019 118   @ Louisiana L 79-87 23%    
  Mar 07, 2019 206   Troy W 80-76 65%    
  Mar 09, 2019 195   South Alabama W 77-73 63%    
Projected Record 11.6 - 16.4 8.9 - 9.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.7 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.6 5.1 1.5 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.5 2.1 0.1 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.2 2.8 0.2 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.4 3.4 0.4 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.3 0.9 0.1 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.0 8.7 11.0 12.3 13.1 12.3 10.5 8.2 5.6 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 96.0% 0.6    0.6 0.1 0.0
15-3 83.2% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 56.9% 1.9    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 25.5% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 3.1 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 48.3% 41.4% 6.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8%
17-1 0.2% 28.7% 27.7% 1.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4%
16-2 0.7% 25.0% 24.7% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4%
15-3 1.6% 22.6% 22.5% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.2%
14-4 3.3% 19.0% 19.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7
13-5 5.6% 14.3% 14.3% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 4.8
12-6 8.2% 10.9% 10.9% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 7.3
11-7 10.5% 8.0% 8.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 9.7
10-8 12.3% 4.8% 4.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 11.7
9-9 13.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 12.7
8-10 12.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.1
7-11 11.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.8
6-12 8.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.6
5-13 6.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.0
4-14 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.7
3-15 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 1.3 94.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%