Arizona St.
Pac-12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#37
Achievement Rating+18.9#19
Pace76.4#52
Improvement-0.2#193

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#37
First Shot+5.3#43
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#115
Layup/Dunks+6.4#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#207
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#306
Freethrows+4.4#14
Improvement-1.3#283

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#42
First Shot+3.2#71
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#42
Layups/Dunks+1.8#118
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#233
Freethrows-0.4#193
Improvement+1.1#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 16.8% 20.5% 9.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.3% 81.4% 66.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.8% 76.5% 60.7%
Average Seed 6.9 6.6 7.5
.500 or above 98.1% 99.1% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 91.7% 86.2%
Conference Champion 26.4% 29.5% 20.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four4.0% 3.4% 4.9%
First Round74.3% 79.7% 64.3%
Second Round44.3% 49.0% 35.6%
Sweet Sixteen18.0% 20.7% 13.0%
Elite Eight7.0% 8.2% 4.7%
Final Four2.6% 3.1% 1.6%
Championship Game1.0% 1.2% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Georgia (Away) - 65.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 167   Cal St. Fullerton W 102-94 91%     1 - 0 +4.5 +3.2 -0.8
  Nov 09, 2018 310   McNeese St. W 80-52 97%     2 - 0 +16.3 +3.5 +13.9
  Nov 12, 2018 197   Long Beach St. W 90-58 93%     3 - 0 +26.8 +1.8 +20.2
  Nov 19, 2018 17   Mississippi St. W 72-67 41%     4 - 0 +18.9 +8.5 +10.6
  Nov 21, 2018 50   Utah St. W 87-82 58%     5 - 0 +14.6 +6.9 +7.0
  Nov 28, 2018 232   Nebraska Omaha W 89-71 95%     6 - 0 +10.7 +6.3 +3.4
  Dec 01, 2018 220   Texas Southern W 83-71 94%     7 - 0 +5.5 +2.2 +2.7
  Dec 07, 2018 10   Nevada L 66-72 28%     7 - 1 +11.7 -4.3 +16.2
  Dec 15, 2018 110   @ Georgia W 79-75 65%    
  Dec 17, 2018 79   @ Vanderbilt W 79-77 58%    
  Dec 22, 2018 4   Kansas L 76-80 35%    
  Dec 29, 2018 190   Princeton W 81-65 93%    
  Jan 03, 2019 134   Utah W 80-68 86%    
  Jan 05, 2019 59   Colorado W 81-75 72%    
  Jan 09, 2019 179   @ California W 81-71 82%    
  Jan 12, 2019 95   @ Stanford W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 17, 2019 64   Oregon St. W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 19, 2019 35   Oregon W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 24, 2019 44   @ UCLA L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 26, 2019 94   @ USC W 81-78 61%    
  Jan 31, 2019 40   Arizona W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 07, 2019 177   Washington St. W 90-74 92%    
  Feb 09, 2019 53   Washington W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 13, 2019 59   @ Colorado W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 16, 2019 134   @ Utah W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 20, 2019 95   Stanford W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 24, 2019 179   California W 84-68 92%    
  Feb 28, 2019 35   @ Oregon L 73-76 39%    
  Mar 03, 2019 64   @ Oregon St. W 73-72 54%    
  Mar 09, 2019 40   @ Arizona L 75-77 42%    
Projected Record 21.4 - 8.6 11.9 - 6.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.7 7.2 7.5 4.8 2.1 0.4 26.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.5 7.3 4.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 5.7 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 4.9 7.8 10.9 13.4 15.0 14.5 12.2 8.7 4.9 2.1 0.4 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.9% 2.1    2.0 0.0
16-2 97.7% 4.8    4.3 0.4 0.0
15-3 85.4% 7.5    5.5 1.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 58.9% 7.2    3.6 2.9 0.7 0.0
13-5 25.6% 3.7    0.9 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.2% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.4% 26.4 16.8 7.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 99.5% 47.9% 51.6% 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.1%
17-1 2.1% 99.9% 43.6% 56.3% 2.3 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-2 4.9% 99.7% 39.8% 60.0% 3.2 0.2 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-3 8.7% 99.0% 33.2% 65.8% 4.4 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.5 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.5%
14-4 12.2% 97.8% 28.4% 69.4% 5.5 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.9 2.2 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 96.9%
13-5 14.5% 94.5% 22.8% 71.7% 6.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.9 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 92.9%
12-6 15.0% 89.0% 17.4% 71.6% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.7 86.6%
11-7 13.4% 78.0% 13.7% 64.2% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.9 74.5%
10-8 10.9% 61.6% 9.2% 52.4% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 4.2 57.7%
9-9 7.8% 41.5% 6.3% 35.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.6 37.6%
8-10 4.9% 16.2% 4.0% 12.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.1 12.7%
7-11 2.9% 5.5% 2.7% 2.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 2.9%
6-12 1.5% 2.5% 1.9% 0.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.6%
5-13 0.6% 1.9% 1.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 76.3% 19.0% 57.4% 6.9 0.9 3.1 5.3 7.5 8.6 8.7 9.8 9.4 9.1 7.0 4.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.7 70.8%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 85.5 14.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 63.6 31.8 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 72.4 27.6