Arizona St.
Pac-12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#54
Achievement Rating+9.7#60
Pace76.4#37
Improvement-3.1#301

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#51
First Shot+2.8#91
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#50
Layup/Dunks+2.9#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#256
Freethrows+3.8#6
Improvement+0.1#180

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#68
First Shot+2.4#99
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#42
Layups/Dunks+4.1#35
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#308
Freethrows-1.2#249
Improvement-3.2#323
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.4% 59.4% 37.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.5% 50.8% 28.7%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 10.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 100.0% 98.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.1% 13.3% 12.7%
First Round46.2% 52.1% 30.3%
Second Round16.6% 19.2% 9.8%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.4% 2.0%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Home) - 72.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 161   Cal St. Fullerton W 102-94 86%     1 - 0 +5.4 +3.4 -0.2
  Nov 09, 2018 317   McNeese St. W 80-52 96%     2 - 0 +15.7 +1.7 +15.1
  Nov 12, 2018 216   Long Beach St. W 90-58 91%     3 - 0 +25.9 +0.4 +20.8
  Nov 19, 2018 22   Mississippi St. W 72-67 30%     4 - 0 +19.3 +6.6 +12.8
  Nov 21, 2018 51   Utah St. W 87-82 48%     5 - 0 +14.2 +6.1 +7.4
  Nov 28, 2018 170   Nebraska Omaha W 89-71 87%     6 - 0 +14.9 +4.6 +9.4
  Dec 01, 2018 229   Texas Southern W 83-71 92%     7 - 0 +5.0 +1.2 +3.2
  Dec 07, 2018 13   Nevada L 66-72 24%     7 - 1 +10.1 -2.5 +12.9
  Dec 15, 2018 111   @ Georgia W 76-74 58%     8 - 1 +8.8 +1.7 +7.0
  Dec 17, 2018 117   @ Vanderbilt L 65-81 59%     8 - 2 -9.5 -5.5 -3.7
  Dec 22, 2018 11   Kansas W 80-76 31%     9 - 2 +17.8 +8.3 +9.2
  Dec 29, 2018 160   Princeton L 66-67 86%     9 - 3 -3.6 -3.9 +0.3
  Jan 03, 2019 95   Utah L 86-96 73%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -7.6 +2.5 -9.3
  Jan 05, 2019 69   Colorado W 83-61 67%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +26.3 +13.8 +12.6
  Jan 09, 2019 257   @ California W 80-66 86%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +11.2 +3.4 +7.9
  Jan 12, 2019 93   @ Stanford L 71-85 53%     11 - 5 2 - 2 -6.0 -2.0 -3.1
  Jan 17, 2019 73   Oregon St. W 70-67 68%     12 - 5 3 - 2 +6.9 +0.9 +6.1
  Jan 19, 2019 55   Oregon W 78-64 62%     13 - 5 4 - 2 +19.7 +14.5 +5.9
  Jan 24, 2019 92   @ UCLA W 84-73 53%     14 - 5 5 - 2 +19.1 +5.4 +12.2
  Jan 26, 2019 79   @ USC L 67-69 49%     14 - 6 5 - 3 +7.0 -5.6 +12.7
  Jan 31, 2019 81   Arizona W 95-88 70%     15 - 6 6 - 3 +10.4 +20.8 -10.7
  Feb 07, 2019 165   Washington St. L 70-91 86%     15 - 7 6 - 4 -23.9 -20.4 +0.3
  Feb 09, 2019 37   Washington W 75-63 51%     16 - 7 7 - 4 +20.6 +3.8 +16.1
  Feb 13, 2019 69   @ Colorado L 73-77 46%     16 - 8 7 - 5 +5.7 +7.6 -1.9
  Feb 16, 2019 95   @ Utah W 98-87 54%     17 - 8 8 - 5 +18.8 +20.7 -2.3
  Feb 20, 2019 93   Stanford W 80-74 73%    
  Feb 24, 2019 257   California W 86-69 95%    
  Feb 28, 2019 55   @ Oregon L 69-71 40%    
  Mar 03, 2019 73   @ Oregon St. L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 09, 2019 81   @ Arizona L 73-74 49%    
Projected Record 20.0 - 10.0 11.0 - 7.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 1st
2nd 1.0 18.5 24.0 7.1 50.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.7 14.9 1.8 22.4 3rd
4th 0.1 9.8 2.9 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.9 5.8 0.2 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 1.4 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 0.1 2.6 7th
8th 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.4 6.2 23.7 36.5 25.9 7.4 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 3.6% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 7.4% 89.1% 22.4% 66.7% 9.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 86.0%
12-6 25.9% 74.6% 21.1% 53.5% 9.9 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.9 6.2 4.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.6 67.8%
11-7 36.5% 52.4% 16.1% 36.4% 10.3 0.0 0.8 3.6 6.0 6.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 17.3 43.3%
10-8 23.7% 31.8% 11.3% 20.5% 10.6 0.2 1.1 2.0 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 16.2 23.1%
9-9 6.2% 14.2% 5.9% 8.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.3 8.9%
8-10 0.4% 3.3% 2.5% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.4 0.9%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 53.4% 16.0% 37.4% 10.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 4.0 11.4 16.1 14.4 5.3 0.8 0.1 46.6 44.5%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 7.3 3.4 20.0 39.5 24.1 9.7 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 92.3% 9.3 4.7 15.1 35.3 23.7 12.9 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6% 89.2% 9.5 2.9 11.5 30.4 28.3 12.7 2.9 0.2 0.2
Lose Out 0.2%