Arkansas Little Rock
Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#206
Achievement Rating-6.8#269
Pace74.9#55
Improvement+2.3#77

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#242
First Shot-0.9#204
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#261
Layup/Dunks+3.9#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#233
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#302
Freethrows+0.3#158
Improvement+0.1#189

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#186
First Shot-1.1#208
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#112
Layups/Dunks+0.6#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#318
Freethrows-0.5#215
Improvement+2.3#75
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.4% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.5% 15.6% 1.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.1% 5.0% 33.2%
First Four1.4% 1.5% 1.4%
First Round1.5% 1.9% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Away) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 312   @ Tennessee St. W 83-67 63%     1 - 0 +10.0 +3.3 +5.7
  Nov 16, 2018 13   @ Nevada L 59-87 3%     1 - 1 -9.1 -9.9 +2.9
  Nov 19, 2018 96   @ Tulsa L 78-88 16%     1 - 2 -2.2 +0.0 -0.9
  Nov 23, 2018 321   Howard W 97-76 83%     2 - 2 +8.1 +0.7 +4.2
  Nov 24, 2018 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66-75 86%     2 - 3 -23.1 -12.9 -10.3
  Nov 28, 2018 302   @ Central Arkansas L 65-78 60%     2 - 4 -18.3 -16.5 -0.6
  Dec 01, 2018 173   Sam Houston St. W 79-52 52%     3 - 4 +23.7 +10.3 +15.2
  Dec 04, 2018 156   Bradley L 62-68 49%     3 - 5 -8.3 -8.0 -0.6
  Dec 08, 2018 302   Central Arkansas L 82-85 78%     3 - 6 -13.8 +2.6 -16.3
  Dec 19, 2018 76   @ Memphis L 89-99 14%     3 - 7 -0.8 +3.9 -2.9
  Dec 22, 2018 68   @ Georgetown L 94-102 12%     3 - 8 +1.9 +0.9 +3.0
  Jan 03, 2019 157   @ Louisiana Monroe L 84-97 29%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -9.9 +7.3 -17.1
  Jan 05, 2019 185   @ Louisiana L 61-75 35%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -12.8 -15.0 +2.6
  Jan 10, 2019 233   Troy W 73-59 67%     4 - 10 1 - 2 +6.8 -7.9 +14.4
  Jan 12, 2019 220   South Alabama W 91-62 63%     5 - 10 2 - 2 +22.9 +11.7 +10.1
  Jan 17, 2019 124   @ Texas St. L 62-80 20%     5 - 11 2 - 3 -12.0 -6.6 -5.2
  Jan 19, 2019 175   @ Texas Arlington L 73-82 32%     5 - 12 2 - 4 -6.8 +2.3 -8.8
  Jan 24, 2019 163   Coastal Carolina L 71-72 51%     5 - 13 2 - 5 -3.9 -2.0 -1.9
  Jan 26, 2019 191   Appalachian St. L 73-77 58%     5 - 14 2 - 6 -8.6 -12.2 +4.0
  Feb 02, 2019 259   Arkansas St. L 83-84 71%     5 - 15 2 - 7 -9.4 -3.1 -6.2
  Feb 07, 2019 233   @ Troy W 84-70 46%     6 - 15 3 - 7 +12.3 +9.3 +3.4
  Feb 09, 2019 220   @ South Alabama W 73-68 42%     7 - 15 4 - 7 +4.4 -3.6 +7.8
  Feb 14, 2019 175   Texas Arlington W 56-52 52%     8 - 15 5 - 7 +0.7 -6.5 +7.9
  Feb 16, 2019 124   Texas St. L 60-67 38%     8 - 16 5 - 8 -6.5 -3.5 -3.9
  Feb 23, 2019 259   @ Arkansas St. W 77-76 50%    
  Feb 28, 2019 128   @ Georgia Southern L 76-85 21%    
  Mar 02, 2019 131   @ Georgia St. L 72-80 21%    
  Mar 07, 2019 185   Louisiana W 82-80 57%    
  Mar 09, 2019 157   Louisiana Monroe L 76-77 50%    
Projected Record 10.0 - 19.0 7.0 - 11.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.9 4th
5th 0.5 2.9 0.3 3.6 5th
6th 0.1 5.3 3.4 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 2.7 11.0 0.9 14.6 7th
8th 0.6 14.3 5.7 0.0 20.6 8th
9th 5.3 13.7 0.5 19.5 9th
10th 0.4 11.3 3.4 0.0 15.1 10th
11th 4.0 7.8 0.2 12.1 11th
12th 3.6 1.0 0.0 4.6 12th
Total 8.0 26.0 34.4 23.0 7.6 0.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.9% 7.4% 7.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
9-9 7.6% 3.9% 3.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.3
8-10 23.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 22.4
7-11 34.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.6 33.8
6-12 26.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 25.7
5-13 8.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.9
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 14.8 1.4 24.6 66.7 7.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 5.4%