Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#330
Achievement Rating-8.8#297
Pace67.8#210
Improvement+0.4#172

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#323
First Shot-5.2#309
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#270
Layup/Dunks-4.0#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#342
Freethrows+2.2#44
Improvement+0.2#185

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#300
First Shot-4.5#305
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#207
Layups/Dunks-2.9#292
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#142
Freethrows-2.3#314
Improvement+0.2#168
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 5.2% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 1.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 88.4% 94.3% 67.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.9% 5.2% 3.7%
First Round1.9% 2.1% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 78.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 115   @ San Diego St. L 60-76 6%     0 - 1 -9.3 -9.4 +0.0
  Nov 10, 2018 178   @ Colorado St. L 67-92 12%     0 - 2 -23.4 -2.2 -23.3
  Nov 17, 2018 145   @ Southern Illinois L 48-78 8%     0 - 3 -25.6 -22.0 -3.9
  Nov 19, 2018 190   @ Massachusetts L 60-92 13%     0 - 4 -31.1 -17.2 -11.6
  Nov 23, 2018 217   California Baptist W 115-107 22%     1 - 4 +4.7 +6.5 -3.9
  Nov 24, 2018 206   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 75-66 14%     2 - 4 +9.1 +3.1 +6.0
  Nov 27, 2018 31   @ Cincinnati L 49-105 2%     2 - 5 -40.9 -20.6 -15.1
  Dec 05, 2018 9   @ Texas Tech L 47-65 1%     2 - 6 +1.7 -9.4 +10.3
  Dec 08, 2018 172   @ UC Santa Barbara L 45-55 11%     2 - 7 -7.7 -18.2 +8.4
  Dec 20, 2018 138   @ North Texas L 66-77 8%     2 - 8 -6.3 -0.7 -5.9
  Dec 22, 2018 148   @ Missouri St. L 72-93 8%     2 - 9 -17.0 -2.3 -13.7
  Dec 29, 2018 233   @ Troy L 63-71 18%     2 - 10 -9.7 -6.5 -4.0
  Jan 05, 2019 350   Mississippi Valley W 64-52 80%     3 - 10 1 - 0 -8.4 -16.1 +7.9
  Jan 12, 2019 320   Alabama St. W 82-71 56%     4 - 10 2 - 0 -1.8 +2.6 -4.6
  Jan 14, 2019 346   Alabama A&M W 50-49 73%     5 - 10 3 - 0 -16.8 -22.4 +5.6
  Jan 19, 2019 342   @ Southern L 67-69 51%     5 - 11 3 - 1 -13.7 -3.9 -10.0
  Jan 21, 2019 349   @ Alcorn St. L 69-74 60%     5 - 12 3 - 2 -19.0 -4.6 -14.7
  Jan 26, 2019 228   Texas Southern W 90-86 33%     6 - 12 4 - 2 -2.9 +2.7 -6.0
  Jan 28, 2019 265   Prairie View L 63-79 40%     6 - 13 4 - 3 -24.7 -20.5 -2.5
  Feb 02, 2019 284   @ Grambling St. L 55-79 25%     6 - 14 4 - 4 -28.2 -11.4 -18.7
  Feb 04, 2019 333   @ Jackson St. L 52-65 42%     6 - 15 4 - 5 -22.3 -14.9 -8.8
  Feb 09, 2019 320   @ Alabama St. W 75-69 35%     7 - 15 5 - 5 -1.3 +2.0 -3.1
  Feb 11, 2019 346   @ Alabama A&M W 69-60 54%     8 - 15 6 - 5 -3.3 +0.4 -2.8
  Feb 16, 2019 342   Southern W 61-45 71%     9 - 15 7 - 5 -1.2 -9.3 +10.9
  Feb 18, 2019 349   Alcorn St. W 69-61 78%    
  Feb 23, 2019 228   @ Texas Southern L 72-82 17%    
  Feb 25, 2019 265   @ Prairie View L 69-77 21%    
  Mar 02, 2019 284   Grambling St. L 67-69 44%    
  Mar 04, 2019 333   Jackson St. W 65-62 63%    
  Mar 09, 2019 350   @ Mississippi Valley W 71-67 62%    
Projected Record 11.9 - 18.1 9.9 - 8.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.5 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.6 13.7 4.7 0.2 23.3 3rd
4th 0.0 3.7 17.9 7.3 0.4 29.3 4th
5th 0.0 2.6 15.9 10.4 0.3 29.3 5th
6th 1.2 7.3 6.4 0.3 15.2 6th
7th 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.5 10.1 26.1 33.2 21.8 6.6 0.8 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 6.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.8% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.7
12-6 6.6% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.6 6.0
11-7 21.8% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 1.4 20.4
10-8 33.2% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 1.6 31.6
9-9 26.1% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 1.0 25.2
8-10 10.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.3 9.8
7-11 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.9 95.1 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 16.0 1.0 99.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 1.2%