Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#259
Achievement Rating-3.9#218
Pace72.0#104
Improvement+1.9#92

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#223
First Shot-2.2#247
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#125
Layup/Dunks-1.9#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#265
Freethrows+1.9#59
Improvement+1.8#92

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#284
First Shot-1.5#219
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#344
Layups/Dunks-1.4#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#64
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#71
Freethrows-4.2#350
Improvement+0.1#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.8% 7.1% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.7% 10.2% 45.2%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 169   @ Abilene Christian L 73-94 22%     0 - 1 -18.5 -3.0 -14.0
  Nov 16, 2018 102   @ Grand Canyon L 72-96 11%     0 - 2 -16.4 -2.5 -12.2
  Nov 23, 2018 252   UNC Wilmington L 64-78 49%     0 - 3 -19.4 -16.7 -2.7
  Nov 24, 2018 296   Eastern Illinois L 86-90 58%     0 - 4 -11.7 -3.3 -7.9
  Nov 25, 2018 218   Gardner-Webb W 77-69 41%     1 - 4 +4.7 +5.0 +0.1
  Dec 01, 2018 158   @ Lehigh L 70-82 20%     1 - 5 -8.9 -4.0 -5.1
  Dec 04, 2018 201   Evansville W 87-77 48%     2 - 5 +4.8 +7.6 -3.5
  Dec 08, 2018 43   @ Minnesota L 56-72 6%     2 - 6 -3.5 -6.3 +1.5
  Dec 14, 2018 168   Florida Atlantic W 75-71 40%     3 - 6 +1.0 -6.5 +6.9
  Dec 18, 2018 148   Missouri St. W 71-63 34%     4 - 6 +6.5 -3.8 +10.2
  Dec 22, 2018 40   @ Syracuse L 52-82 5%     4 - 7 -16.3 -6.3 -13.1
  Jan 03, 2019 185   @ Louisiana W 94-83 25%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +12.2 +5.8 +4.8
  Jan 05, 2019 157   @ Louisiana Monroe L 75-85 20%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -6.9 +0.8 -7.9
  Jan 10, 2019 220   South Alabama W 66-65 52%     6 - 8 2 - 1 -5.1 -7.8 +2.7
  Jan 12, 2019 233   Troy L 85-90 56%     6 - 9 2 - 2 -12.2 -0.4 -11.4
  Jan 17, 2019 175   @ Texas Arlington L 59-68 23%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -6.8 -6.3 -1.0
  Jan 19, 2019 124   @ Texas St. L 64-77 14%     6 - 11 2 - 4 -7.0 -2.9 -4.3
  Jan 24, 2019 191   Appalachian St. W 82-81 46%     7 - 11 3 - 4 -3.6 -5.5 +1.7
  Jan 26, 2019 163   Coastal Carolina L 64-77 40%     7 - 12 3 - 5 -15.9 -14.3 -0.7
  Feb 02, 2019 206   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 84-83 29%     8 - 12 4 - 5 +1.1 +4.2 -3.2
  Feb 07, 2019 220   @ South Alabama L 62-70 31%     8 - 13 4 - 6 -8.6 -2.6 -7.1
  Feb 09, 2019 233   @ Troy L 79-84 35%     8 - 14 4 - 7 -6.7 +2.0 -8.6
  Feb 14, 2019 124   Texas St. L 74-84 28%     8 - 15 4 - 8 -9.5 +4.6 -14.2
  Feb 16, 2019 175   Texas Arlington W 83-79 41%     9 - 15 5 - 8 +0.7 +4.3 -4.0
  Feb 23, 2019 206   Arkansas Little Rock L 76-77 50%    
  Feb 28, 2019 131   @ Georgia St. L 71-82 14%    
  Mar 02, 2019 128   @ Georgia Southern L 76-87 14%    
  Mar 07, 2019 157   Louisiana Monroe L 76-79 39%    
  Mar 09, 2019 185   Louisiana L 81-82 46%    
Projected Record 10.6 - 18.4 6.6 - 11.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.4 1.4 0.1 1.8 5th
6th 0.1 4.0 1.5 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 7.5 0.3 10.5 7th
8th 0.6 13.1 3.6 0.0 17.3 8th
9th 5.9 13.1 0.3 19.3 9th
10th 0.8 14.7 3.8 0.0 19.3 10th
11th 6.7 11.0 0.4 18.1 11th
12th 6.2 1.5 0.0 7.7 12th
Total 13.7 33.7 33.0 15.8 3.4 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 3.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.4
8-10 15.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 15.7
7-11 33.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 32.8
6-12 33.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 33.6
5-13 13.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.7
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%
Lose Out 10.2%