Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#291
Achievement Rating-7.7#264
Pace72.0#129
Improvement+3.6#10

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#221
First Shot-0.1#183
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#259
Layup/Dunks-1.9#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#190
Freethrows+1.4#105
Improvement+1.1#84

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#317
First Shot-5.0#317
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#217
Layups/Dunks-3.1#286
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#80
Freethrows-3.6#324
Improvement+2.5#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 2.6% 4.5% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 13.4% 16.6% 10.8%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 37.0% 31.7% 41.4%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Home) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 166   @ Abilene Christian L 73-94 17%     0 - 1 -18.2 -4.1 -12.6
  Nov 16, 2018 120   @ Grand Canyon L 72-96 11%     0 - 2 -17.6 -2.4 -13.4
  Nov 23, 2018 219   UNC Wilmington L 64-78 35%     0 - 3 -17.3 -13.4 -3.8
  Nov 24, 2018 318   Eastern Illinois L 86-90 60%     0 - 4 -13.7 -2.1 -11.1
  Nov 25, 2018 190   Gardner-Webb W 77-69 30%     1 - 4 +6.2 +5.7 +1.0
  Dec 01, 2018 148   @ Lehigh L 70-82 15%     1 - 5 -8.2 -1.9 -6.5
  Dec 04, 2018 200   Evansville W 87-77 42%     2 - 5 +4.8 +6.7 -2.7
  Dec 08, 2018 57   @ Minnesota L 56-72 5%     2 - 6 -4.4 -6.7 +1.0
  Dec 14, 2018 212   Florida Atlantic L 75-76 45%    
  Dec 18, 2018 194   Missouri St. L 78-80 42%    
  Dec 22, 2018 31   @ Syracuse L 59-81 2%    
  Jan 03, 2019 126   @ Louisiana L 70-83 11%    
  Jan 05, 2019 202   @ Louisiana Monroe L 68-76 24%    
  Jan 10, 2019 197   South Alabama L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 12, 2019 206   Troy L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 17, 2019 252   @ Texas Arlington L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 19, 2019 142   @ Texas St. L 64-76 14%    
  Jan 24, 2019 178   Appalachian St. L 79-82 40%    
  Jan 26, 2019 185   Coastal Carolina L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 02, 2019 238   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 73-78 31%    
  Feb 07, 2019 197   @ South Alabama L 69-77 23%    
  Feb 09, 2019 206   @ Troy L 72-79 25%    
  Feb 14, 2019 142   Texas St. L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 16, 2019 252   Texas Arlington W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 23, 2019 238   Arkansas Little Rock W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 28, 2019 108   @ Georgia St. L 69-84 9%    
  Mar 02, 2019 134   @ Georgia Southern L 77-90 13%    
  Mar 07, 2019 202   Louisiana Monroe L 71-73 44%    
  Mar 09, 2019 126   Louisiana L 73-80 26%    
Projected Record 8.5 - 20.5 5.6 - 12.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.7 1.4 0.1 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 5.0 4.3 0.6 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.7 5.7 1.3 0.0 14.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.8 6.2 1.9 0.1 0.0 18.5 11th
12th 0.8 3.2 6.6 7.9 5.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 26.0 12th
Total 0.8 3.2 7.1 10.9 14.2 15.1 14.4 12.0 8.9 6.2 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 90.9% 0.0    0.0
15-3 89.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 53.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 32.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 7.7% 7.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 12.2% 12.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 8.5% 8.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.0% 6.1% 6.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-7 2.0% 4.8% 4.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9
10-8 3.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 3.6
9-9 6.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.1
8-10 8.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.8
7-11 12.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.0
6-12 14.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.4
5-13 15.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.1
4-14 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.2
3-15 10.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.9
2-16 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.1
1-17 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%