Arkansas
Southeastern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#58
Achievement Rating+7.3#75
Pace76.1#41
Improvement-3.7#315

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#88
First Shot+3.1#81
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#167
Layup/Dunks+4.1#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#271
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#210
Freethrows+1.7#66
Improvement-1.0#236

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#53
First Shot+6.0#31
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#292
Layups/Dunks+6.3#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#211
Freethrows-1.6#281
Improvement-2.7#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 30.5% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.8% 30.2% 9.6%
Average Seed 10.7 10.4 10.9
.500 or above 83.5% 97.6% 80.9%
.500 or above in Conference 19.6% 48.8% 14.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.1% 11.4% 5.2%
First Round9.7% 24.3% 7.0%
Second Round3.3% 8.9% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 15.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 27   Texas L 71-73 31%     0 - 1 +10.9 -4.4 +15.5
  Nov 12, 2018 207   UC Davis W 81-58 89%     1 - 1 +17.5 -0.8 +15.9
  Nov 18, 2018 45   Indiana W 73-72 55%     2 - 1 +7.8 -0.8 +8.5
  Nov 21, 2018 227   Montana St. W 90-68 91%     3 - 1 +15.3 +2.0 +11.2
  Nov 23, 2018 175   Texas Arlington W 78-60 85%     4 - 1 +14.7 -1.5 +14.3
  Dec 01, 2018 223   Florida International W 121-89 90%     5 - 1 +25.6 +16.2 +1.7
  Dec 05, 2018 178   @ Colorado St. W 98-74 73%     6 - 1 +25.6 +22.5 +3.0
  Dec 08, 2018 122   Western Kentucky L 77-78 76%     6 - 2 -0.4 +2.3 -2.6
  Dec 15, 2018 134   Texas San Antonio W 79-67 71%     7 - 2 +14.2 +3.3 +10.4
  Dec 19, 2018 108   Georgia Tech L 65-69 73%     7 - 3 -2.4 -1.5 -1.0
  Dec 22, 2018 124   Texas St. W 73-70 76%     8 - 3 +3.5 +1.7 +1.8
  Dec 28, 2018 137   Austin Peay W 76-65 79%     9 - 3 +10.3 +0.0 +10.2
  Jan 05, 2019 85   @ Texas A&M W 73-71 47%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +10.7 +4.3 +6.4
  Jan 09, 2019 29   Florida L 51-57 42%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +4.1 -12.8 +16.7
  Jan 12, 2019 22   LSU L 88-94 36%     10 - 5 1 - 2 +5.6 +4.2 +2.3
  Jan 15, 2019 7   @ Tennessee L 87-106 10%     10 - 6 1 - 3 +3.2 +9.9 -4.2
  Jan 19, 2019 38   @ Mississippi L 67-84 29%     10 - 7 1 - 4 -3.2 -1.9 -0.8
  Jan 23, 2019 89   Missouri W 72-60 68%     11 - 7 2 - 4 +15.0 +0.7 +14.1
  Jan 26, 2019 9   @ Texas Tech L 64-67 14%     11 - 8 +16.7 +7.7 +8.9
  Jan 29, 2019 113   Georgia W 70-60 74%     12 - 8 3 - 4 +11.3 -3.5 +14.7
  Feb 02, 2019 22   @ LSU W 90-89 19%     13 - 8 4 - 4 +18.1 +12.3 +5.8
  Feb 05, 2019 119   Vanderbilt W 69-66 75%     14 - 8 5 - 4 +4.0 +5.3 -1.0
  Feb 09, 2019 74   @ South Carolina L 65-77 44%     14 - 9 5 - 5 -2.6 -5.2 +3.0
  Feb 12, 2019 89   @ Missouri L 78-79 48%     14 - 10 5 - 6 +7.6 +14.0 -6.5
  Feb 16, 2019 23   Mississippi St. L 67-77 36%     14 - 11 5 - 7 +1.6 -3.0 +4.8
  Feb 20, 2019 14   @ Auburn L 72-82 16%    
  Feb 23, 2019 85   Texas A&M W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 26, 2019 5   @ Kentucky L 66-81 8%    
  Mar 02, 2019 38   Mississippi L 76-77 50%    
  Mar 06, 2019 119   @ Vanderbilt W 74-73 55%    
  Mar 09, 2019 44   Alabama W 76-75 55%    
Projected Record 16.5 - 14.5 7.5 - 10.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.3 1.1 0.1 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 1.3 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 5.2 0.5 6.4 7th
8th 0.2 4.9 5.8 0.1 11.0 8th
9th 0.1 4.4 14.5 2.7 0.0 21.6 9th
10th 0.7 11.0 25.0 10.8 0.2 47.7 10th
11th 2.0 4.3 1.0 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 3.3 15.7 30.6 30.8 16.1 3.3 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.2% 89.2% 2.7% 86.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.9%
10-8 3.3% 71.2% 1.1% 70.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 70.8%
9-9 16.1% 44.6% 0.5% 44.1% 10.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.9 44.3%
8-10 30.8% 10.0% 0.3% 9.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 27.7 9.8%
7-11 30.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 30.3 0.7%
6-12 15.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.6 0.0%
5-13 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.1% 0.3% 12.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.1 4.1 2.9 0.8 0.0 86.9 12.8%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 95.0% 7.5 20.0 30.0 30.0 10.0 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 89.8% 8.6 11.9 27.1 35.6 13.6 1.7
Lose Out 1.4%