Auburn
Southeastern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.0#8
Achievement Rating+21.7#11
Pace72.9#117
Improvement-1.6#290

Offense
Total Offense+10.8#6
First Shot+7.0#24
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#19
Layup/Dunks+3.1#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.9#2
Freethrows-1.6#264
Improvement-1.0#263

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#22
First Shot+5.4#33
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#71
Layups/Dunks+8.6#3
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#313
Freethrows-0.8#227
Improvement-0.6#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 23.9% 24.3% 9.2%
Top 4 Seed 76.5% 77.0% 54.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.2% 98.4% 93.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.5% 97.6% 91.9%
Average Seed 3.2 3.1 4.4
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 98.1% 94.6%
Conference Champion 44.6% 44.9% 32.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 1.2%
First Round98.1% 98.2% 92.9%
Second Round86.8% 87.1% 74.2%
Sweet Sixteen59.9% 60.2% 46.4%
Elite Eight36.3% 36.6% 25.1%
Final Four20.0% 20.2% 11.6%
Championship Game10.5% 10.6% 5.1%
National Champion5.3% 5.3% 2.1%

Next Game: UAB (Neutral) - 97.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 195   South Alabama W 101-58 97%     1 - 0 +37.9 +23.9 +12.5
  Nov 09, 2018 53   Washington W 88-66 86%     2 - 0 +28.4 +18.5 +9.8
  Nov 19, 2018 57   Xavier W 88-79 81%     3 - 0 +17.8 +8.1 +8.7
  Nov 20, 2018 1   Duke L 72-78 31%     3 - 1 +17.2 +7.7 +9.5
  Nov 21, 2018 40   Arizona W 73-57 76%     4 - 1 +26.8 +13.9 +14.7
  Nov 28, 2018 267   St. Peter's W 99-49 99%     5 - 1 +41.1 +16.5 +20.5
  Dec 04, 2018 344   UNC Asheville W 67-41 99.6%    6 - 1 +8.6 -9.1 +19.1
  Dec 08, 2018 70   Dayton W 82-72 90%     7 - 1 +14.0 +11.8 +2.4
  Dec 15, 2018 216   UAB W 84-63 98%    
  Dec 19, 2018 28   @ North Carolina St. W 84-82 59%    
  Dec 22, 2018 102   Murray St. W 80-64 93%    
  Dec 29, 2018 175   North Florida W 94-72 98%    
  Jan 09, 2019 66   @ Mississippi W 84-76 76%    
  Jan 12, 2019 110   Georgia W 85-68 93%    
  Jan 16, 2019 90   @ Texas A&M W 81-72 80%    
  Jan 19, 2019 18   Kentucky W 82-75 75%    
  Jan 22, 2019 121   @ South Carolina W 83-72 85%    
  Jan 26, 2019 17   @ Mississippi St. W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 30, 2019 83   Missouri W 79-64 91%    
  Feb 02, 2019 62   Alabama W 82-69 88%    
  Feb 05, 2019 19   Florida W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 09, 2019 51   @ LSU W 81-75 69%    
  Feb 13, 2019 66   Mississippi W 87-73 89%    
  Feb 16, 2019 79   @ Vanderbilt W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 20, 2019 58   Arkansas W 87-75 86%    
  Feb 23, 2019 18   @ Kentucky W 79-78 55%    
  Feb 27, 2019 110   @ Georgia W 82-71 82%    
  Mar 02, 2019 17   Mississippi St. W 77-70 74%    
  Mar 05, 2019 62   @ Alabama W 79-72 74%    
  Mar 09, 2019 9   Tennessee W 76-73 61%    
Projected Record 24.3 - 5.7 13.9 - 4.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.5 11.9 12.9 8.5 2.9 44.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.7 8.7 5.1 1.3 0.1 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.6 5.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.3 6.9 10.4 14.3 17.0 17.2 14.2 8.6 2.9 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
17-1 99.1% 8.5    8.0 0.5
16-2 90.7% 12.9    10.4 2.4 0.0
15-3 69.1% 11.9    7.1 4.2 0.5 0.0
14-4 38.4% 6.5    2.4 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.2% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.6% 44.6 31.1 10.8 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.9% 100.0% 55.6% 44.4% 1.1 2.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 8.6% 100.0% 48.4% 51.6% 1.2 7.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 14.2% 100.0% 42.0% 58.0% 1.5 8.4 5.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 17.2% 100.0% 35.8% 64.2% 2.0 4.6 8.7 3.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 17.0% 99.9% 29.9% 70.0% 2.8 1.0 6.6 6.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 14.3% 99.7% 25.3% 74.4% 3.6 0.1 2.3 5.1 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 10.4% 99.1% 19.4% 79.8% 4.7 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
11-7 6.9% 98.1% 14.2% 83.9% 5.9 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.8%
10-8 4.3% 94.9% 9.9% 85.0% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 94.3%
9-9 2.3% 88.8% 6.7% 82.1% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 88.0%
8-10 1.1% 64.2% 4.1% 60.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 62.6%
7-11 0.5% 34.5% 2.8% 31.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 32.7%
6-12 0.2% 10.7% 2.4% 8.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.5%
5-13 0.1% 1.8% 1.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 1.8%
4-14 0.0% 8.3% 4.2% 4.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3%
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.2% 30.2% 68.0% 3.2 23.9 24.5 17.2 10.9 7.5 5.2 3.6 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 97.5%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 1.0 98.6 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.0 97.2 2.5 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 91.3 8.7