Auburn
Southeastern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.6#16
Achievement Rating+12.1#36
Pace72.1#102
Improvement-3.6#311

Offense
Total Offense+9.5#14
First Shot+7.3#19
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#37
Layup/Dunks+3.4#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#6
Freethrows+1.4#86
Improvement-2.8#299

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#31
First Shot+4.2#53
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#26
Layups/Dunks+6.0#11
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#289
Freethrows-0.3#206
Improvement-0.7#218
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.0% 4.5% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.3% 97.8% 88.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.0% 97.6% 87.3%
Average Seed 7.3 7.2 8.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.5% 88.3% 56.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.5% 1.7% 7.2%
First Round95.4% 97.2% 85.7%
Second Round65.9% 67.8% 55.2%
Sweet Sixteen27.0% 28.2% 20.8%
Elite Eight13.1% 13.7% 9.7%
Final Four5.2% 5.5% 3.5%
Championship Game1.9% 2.0% 1.0%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.3%

Next Game: Arkansas (Home) - 84.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 218   South Alabama W 101-58 97%     1 - 0 +36.9 +21.7 +13.7
  Nov 09, 2018 37   Washington W 88-66 75%     2 - 0 +30.6 +20.5 +10.0
  Nov 19, 2018 82   Xavier W 88-79 81%     3 - 0 +15.1 +7.6 +6.6
  Nov 20, 2018 1   Duke L 72-78 20%     3 - 1 +18.6 +8.9 +9.7
  Nov 21, 2018 81   Arizona W 73-57 81%     4 - 1 +22.1 +12.2 +11.6
  Nov 28, 2018 307   St. Peter's W 99-49 99%     5 - 1 +38.6 +15.7 +18.9
  Dec 04, 2018 341   UNC Asheville W 67-41 99%     6 - 1 +9.5 -11.3 +22.1
  Dec 08, 2018 71   Dayton W 82-72 86%     7 - 1 +14.1 +10.3 +4.0
  Dec 15, 2018 163   @ UAB W 75-71 88%     8 - 1 +6.5 +3.7 +2.9
  Dec 19, 2018 32   @ North Carolina St. L 71-78 54%     8 - 2 +7.5 -2.7 +10.9
  Dec 22, 2018 84   Murray St. W 93-88 87%     9 - 2 +8.3 +16.8 -8.6
  Dec 29, 2018 219   North Florida W 95-49 97%     10 - 2 +39.8 +9.2 +26.4
  Jan 09, 2019 39   @ Mississippi L 67-82 57%     10 - 3 0 - 1 -1.3 -4.4 +4.1
  Jan 12, 2019 111   Georgia W 93-78 90%     11 - 3 1 - 1 +16.3 +18.4 -2.4
  Jan 16, 2019 86   @ Texas A&M W 85-66 75%     12 - 3 2 - 1 +27.6 +15.1 +12.1
  Jan 19, 2019 5   Kentucky L 80-82 44%     12 - 4 2 - 2 +15.2 +17.3 -2.1
  Jan 22, 2019 72   @ South Carolina L 77-80 72%     12 - 5 2 - 3 +6.4 +5.5 +1.0
  Jan 26, 2019 22   @ Mississippi St. L 84-92 44%     12 - 6 2 - 4 +9.1 +14.0 -4.6
  Jan 30, 2019 87   Missouri W 92-58 88%     13 - 6 3 - 4 +37.1 +17.3 +18.1
  Feb 02, 2019 45   Alabama W 84-63 80%     14 - 6 4 - 4 +27.8 +15.2 +12.9
  Feb 05, 2019 27   Florida W 76-62 70%     15 - 6 5 - 4 +24.2 +16.2 +8.8
  Feb 09, 2019 23   @ LSU L 78-83 44%     15 - 7 5 - 5 +12.0 +6.6 +5.7
  Feb 13, 2019 39   Mississippi L 55-60 76%     15 - 8 5 - 6 +3.3 -7.2 +9.8
  Feb 16, 2019 117   @ Vanderbilt W 64-53 81%     16 - 8 6 - 6 +17.5 +2.9 +16.0
  Feb 20, 2019 59   Arkansas W 82-72 85%    
  Feb 23, 2019 5   @ Kentucky L 70-77 25%    
  Feb 27, 2019 111   @ Georgia W 82-73 79%    
  Mar 02, 2019 22   Mississippi St. W 78-74 66%    
  Mar 05, 2019 45   @ Alabama W 78-75 61%    
  Mar 09, 2019 7   Tennessee L 78-79 47%    
Projected Record 19.6 - 10.4 9.6 - 8.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 8.4 3.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.5 11.1 9.4 0.6 21.6 5th
6th 0.0 4.2 13.4 1.5 0.0 19.2 6th
7th 0.6 10.6 4.9 0.1 16.1 7th
8th 0.1 3.7 9.8 0.6 14.1 8th
9th 1.0 7.1 3.0 0.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.3 2.0 1.6 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.3 3.1 13.1 28.1 31.9 19.5 4.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 4.0% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 4.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 19.5% 99.9% 13.4% 86.5% 6.1 0.2 1.6 3.6 6.5 5.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 31.9% 99.8% 8.3% 91.5% 7.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 7.0 11.6 8.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8%
9-9 28.1% 98.9% 6.8% 92.1% 7.7 0.1 0.6 3.0 8.0 9.6 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 98.9%
8-10 13.1% 88.1% 4.6% 83.5% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.1 3.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.6 87.5%
7-11 3.1% 53.1% 4.2% 48.9% 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.5 51.0%
6-12 0.3% 12.6% 12.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 12.6%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.3% 8.6% 87.7% 7.3 0.0 0.4 0.7 2.9 7.1 17.5 26.2 22.0 10.8 5.0 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.7 96.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 2.6 1.8 47.6 41.3 8.4 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 4.3 0.8 16.3 41.8 32.2 8.4 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 100.0% 5.1 5.3 24.3 37.1 25.8 6.8 0.6
Lose Out 0.1%