Austin Peay
Ohio Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#137
Achievement Rating+3.5#126
Pace72.1#98
Improvement+2.6#67

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#93
First Shot+1.9#129
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#97
Layup/Dunks-0.6#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#258
Freethrows+0.3#156
Improvement+3.0#41

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#191
First Shot-0.7#197
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#192
Layups/Dunks-2.4#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#145
Freethrows-0.6#218
Improvement-0.4#203
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 10.6% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 3.7% 4.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.4% 10.6% 8.4%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 91.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 23   @ Mississippi St. L 67-95 9%     0 - 1 -10.9 -3.8 -5.1
  Nov 12, 2018 118   @ South Florida L 70-74 33%     0 - 2 +2.6 -5.0 +8.1
  Nov 16, 2018 305   Central Connecticut St. W 80-78 84%     1 - 2 -6.3 +6.5 -12.8
  Nov 18, 2018 213   Campbell L 72-78 69%     1 - 3 -9.2 -4.5 -4.7
  Nov 24, 2018 209   @ Ohio L 82-85 58%     1 - 4 -3.1 -2.3 -0.2
  Nov 29, 2018 233   @ Troy W 79-74 64%     2 - 4 +3.3 -6.9 +9.7
  Dec 01, 2018 346   @ Alabama A&M W 73-61 90%     3 - 4 -0.3 -8.9 +7.6
  Dec 15, 2018 181   Purdue Fort Wayne W 95-68 72%     4 - 4 +23.0 +13.9 +8.2
  Dec 21, 2018 213   Campbell W 88-75 69%     5 - 4 +9.8 +2.0 +6.5
  Dec 22, 2018 99   Liberty W 75-66 39%     6 - 4 +14.0 +17.5 -1.9
  Dec 28, 2018 58   @ Arkansas L 65-76 21%     6 - 5 -0.3 -2.6 +2.4
  Jan 03, 2019 277   Eastern Kentucky W 93-75 86%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +8.6 +6.5 +0.0
  Jan 05, 2019 268   Morehead St. W 81-67 85%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +5.2 +0.5 +4.4
  Jan 10, 2019 315   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 78-60 80%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +11.2 +7.5 +4.9
  Jan 12, 2019 300   @ Tennessee Martin W 72-70 76%     10 - 5 4 - 0 -3.1 -6.5 +3.3
  Jan 17, 2019 332   @ SIU Edwardsville W 79-71 85%     11 - 5 5 - 0 -0.8 -6.8 +5.1
  Jan 19, 2019 296   @ Eastern Illinois L 83-85 75%     11 - 6 5 - 1 -6.9 +8.0 -14.9
  Jan 24, 2019 312   Tennessee St. W 89-74 89%     12 - 6 6 - 1 +3.4 +7.0 -4.4
  Jan 26, 2019 69   Belmont L 92-96 41%     12 - 7 6 - 2 +0.3 +11.6 -11.0
  Jan 31, 2019 328   @ Tennessee Tech W 77-66 84%     13 - 7 7 - 2 +2.5 +0.9 +1.1
  Feb 02, 2019 129   @ Jacksonville St. W 74-71 36%     14 - 7 8 - 2 +8.8 +1.9 +6.7
  Feb 07, 2019 332   SIU Edwardsville W 80-45 93%     15 - 7 9 - 2 +20.7 +3.7 +18.6
  Feb 09, 2019 296   Eastern Illinois W 94-86 88%     16 - 7 10 - 2 -2.5 +13.8 -16.3
  Feb 14, 2019 71   Murray St. L 71-73 42%     16 - 8 10 - 3 +2.2 +7.8 -5.9
  Feb 16, 2019 268   @ Morehead St. W 73-70 70%     17 - 8 11 - 3 -0.3 -4.4 +4.1
  Feb 21, 2019 315   Southeast Missouri St. W 82-68 91%    
  Feb 23, 2019 300   Tennessee Martin W 84-71 89%    
  Feb 28, 2019 277   @ Eastern Kentucky W 87-81 70%    
  Mar 02, 2019 71   @ Murray St. L 73-81 23%    
Projected Record 19.7 - 9.3 13.7 - 4.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.7 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 10.3 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.6 24.7 28.4 3rd
4th 0.3 5.1 25.5 24.6 55.5 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.3 5.2 29.1 51.4 14.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 26.1% 3.7    0.0 0.7 1.7 1.2
14-4 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 3.7% 3.7 0.0 0.7 1.7 1.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 14.0% 18.2% 18.2% 13.3 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 11.4
14-4 51.4% 10.2% 10.2% 14.1 0.0 0.8 3.2 1.1 0.0 46.1
13-5 29.1% 7.8% 7.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.9 0.0 26.8
12-6 5.2% 6.7% 6.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.9
11-7 0.3% 5.8% 5.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.6 2.3 0.0 89.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 13.3 0.0 7.6 52.3 37.8 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.2%
Lose Out 0.1%