BYU
West Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#75
Achievement Rating+7.2#77
Pace75.6#46
Improvement+1.0#129

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#41
First Shot+5.6#38
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#167
Layup/Dunks+1.9#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#211
Freethrows+2.0#49
Improvement+1.2#118

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#148
First Shot+0.0#169
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#99
Layups/Dunks+2.6#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#305
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#218
Freethrows+0.0#184
Improvement-0.1#185
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 6.2% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 3.8% 1.2%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 11.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% 3.1% 1.1%
First Round3.5% 4.4% 2.4%
Second Round0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 13   @ Nevada L 70-86 13%     0 - 1 +2.9 -2.4 +7.2
  Nov 09, 2018 120   Utah Valley W 75-65 71%     1 - 1 +10.8 -3.5 +13.6
  Nov 13, 2018 333   Northwestern St. W 82-57 97%     2 - 1 +10.0 -3.6 +11.2
  Nov 15, 2018 271   Oral Roberts W 85-65 92%     3 - 1 +11.0 -5.3 +13.7
  Nov 17, 2018 347   Alabama A&M W 91-60 98%     4 - 1 +13.0 +11.7 +0.9
  Nov 21, 2018 248   Rice W 105-78 90%     5 - 1 +19.2 +16.3 +0.3
  Nov 24, 2018 21   Houston L 62-76 30%     5 - 2 -2.2 +5.2 -9.4
  Nov 28, 2018 157   @ Illinois St. L 89-92 63%     5 - 3 -0.1 -1.4 +1.9
  Dec 01, 2018 171   @ Weber St. L 103-113 66%     5 - 4 -7.8 +12.6 -18.6
  Dec 05, 2018 51   Utah St. W 95-80 50%     6 - 4 +21.5 +17.7 +2.7
  Dec 08, 2018 95   Utah W 74-59 55%     7 - 4 +20.1 +6.1 +15.4
  Dec 12, 2018 291   Portland St. W 85-66 93%     8 - 4 +9.0 -2.5 +10.0
  Dec 15, 2018 150   UNLV L 90-92 70%     8 - 5 -1.1 +7.4 -8.3
  Dec 22, 2018 113   @ San Diego St. L 81-90 49%     8 - 6 -2.4 +7.1 -9.0
  Dec 29, 2018 22   @ Mississippi St. L 81-103 16%     8 - 7 -4.9 +1.1 -2.2
  Jan 03, 2019 186   @ Pacific W 90-87 69%     9 - 7 1 - 0 +4.3 +10.5 -6.5
  Jan 05, 2019 49   @ St. Mary's L 66-88 30%     9 - 8 1 - 1 -10.0 -4.3 -5.6
  Jan 10, 2019 318   Portland W 79-56 95%     10 - 8 2 - 1 +10.5 +4.4 +6.8
  Jan 12, 2019 195   Santa Clara W 80-74 85%     11 - 8 3 - 1 +1.3 +11.9 -10.2
  Jan 17, 2019 168   @ Pepperdine W 87-76 65%     12 - 8 4 - 1 +13.3 +8.0 +4.5
  Jan 19, 2019 62   @ San Francisco L 63-82 35%     12 - 9 4 - 2 -8.7 -0.6 -9.4
  Jan 24, 2019 49   St. Mary's W 71-66 49%     13 - 9 5 - 2 +11.6 +8.6 +3.7
  Jan 31, 2019 2   Gonzaga L 63-93 9%     13 - 10 5 - 3 -8.7 -2.6 -6.2
  Feb 02, 2019 140   Loyola Marymount W 67-49 75%     14 - 10 6 - 3 +17.4 +5.1 +14.7
  Feb 07, 2019 318   @ Portland W 83-48 89%     15 - 10 7 - 3 +28.0 +9.6 +18.7
  Feb 09, 2019 186   Pacific W 69-59 84%     16 - 10 8 - 3 +5.9 +2.2 +4.7
  Feb 14, 2019 101   @ San Diego W 88-82 46%     17 - 10 9 - 3 +13.5 +12.4 +0.5
  Feb 16, 2019 140   @ Loyola Marymount W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 21, 2019 62   San Francisco W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 23, 2019 2   @ Gonzaga L 75-95 3%    
  Mar 02, 2019 101   San Diego W 77-73 66%    
Projected Record 18.8 - 12.2 10.8 - 5.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 4.7 32.4 22.4 0.8 60.3 2nd
3rd 1.2 14.8 8.4 24.4 3rd
4th 5.7 9.1 0.4 15.3 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 7.0 28.6 41.3 22.4 0.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0%
12-4 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.8% 34.8% 7.0% 27.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 29.9%
12-4 22.4% 10.1% 2.8% 7.3% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 20.1 7.5%
11-5 41.3% 4.1% 2.5% 1.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 39.5 1.7%
10-6 28.6% 1.7% 1.6% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 28.1 0.2%
9-7 7.0% 0.6% 0.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.8% 2.2% 2.6% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.1 95.2 2.6%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 53.2% 11.0 3.9 10.4 23.4 13.0 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 15.2% 11.4 1.3 6.3 7.6
Lose Out 3.0%