Ball St.
Mid-American
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#84
Achievement Rating+10.1#65
Pace72.5#118
Improvement-0.1#177

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#61
First Shot+2.0#122
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#47
Layup/Dunks-1.3#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#78
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#217
Freethrows+2.4#62
Improvement-0.4#204

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#131
First Shot+3.3#74
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#298
Layups/Dunks-3.7#297
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#83
Freethrows+2.3#61
Improvement+0.4#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 22.3% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.1% 9.8% 4.5%
Average Seed 11.0 10.9 11.5
.500 or above 95.6% 97.5% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 89.6% 91.3% 85.9%
Conference Champion 13.7% 15.4% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
First Four4.0% 4.7% 2.6%
First Round17.5% 19.8% 12.5%
Second Round5.4% 6.5% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.8% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 68.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 140   Indiana St. W 86-69 75%     1 - 0 +15.9 +19.4 -2.5
  Nov 10, 2018 19   @ Purdue L 75-84 15%     1 - 1 +7.8 +8.1 -0.3
  Nov 15, 2018 10   Virginia Tech L 64-73 15%     1 - 2 +8.2 +5.2 +1.9
  Nov 16, 2018 62   Alabama L 61-79 43%     1 - 3 -10.3 -8.3 -1.7
  Nov 18, 2018 178   Appalachian St. W 94-86 75%     2 - 3 +6.8 -1.6 +6.7
  Nov 24, 2018 200   Evansville W 82-72 85%     3 - 3 +4.8 +10.8 -5.7
  Dec 01, 2018 179   @ IUPUI W 85-75 66%     4 - 3 +11.7 +5.3 +5.3
  Dec 05, 2018 95   @ Loyola Chicago W 75-69 40%     5 - 3 +14.5 +8.9 +5.6
  Dec 09, 2018 200   @ Evansville W 80-75 68%    
  Dec 17, 2018 158   @ Valparaiso W 75-72 60%    
  Dec 20, 2018 285   Howard W 90-74 93%    
  Dec 29, 2018 353   Delaware St. W 92-62 99.7%   
  Jan 04, 2019 75   @ Toledo L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 08, 2019 182   Eastern Michigan W 76-66 83%    
  Jan 12, 2019 152   Ohio W 81-73 78%    
  Jan 15, 2019 203   @ Bowling Green W 80-74 69%    
  Jan 19, 2019 173   @ Central Michigan W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 22, 2019 153   Miami (OH) W 79-71 77%    
  Jan 26, 2019 152   @ Ohio W 78-76 58%    
  Jan 29, 2019 23   @ Buffalo L 77-87 18%    
  Feb 02, 2019 143   Kent St. W 80-73 74%    
  Feb 05, 2019 164   @ Northern Illinois W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 09, 2019 223   Western Michigan W 81-69 87%    
  Feb 16, 2019 130   Akron W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 19, 2019 153   @ Miami (OH) W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 23, 2019 173   Central Michigan W 83-73 81%    
  Feb 26, 2019 75   Toledo W 77-75 58%    
  Mar 02, 2019 223   @ Western Michigan W 78-72 72%    
  Mar 05, 2019 182   @ Eastern Michigan W 73-69 65%    
  Mar 08, 2019 164   Northern Illinois W 82-73 78%    
Projected Record 20.1 - 9.9 11.9 - 6.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 4.2 3.6 1.6 0.3 13.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.0 8.9 8.4 4.5 1.2 0.1 29.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.3 7.3 4.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 19.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 4.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.0 4.9 7.7 10.9 13.3 14.9 14.9 12.3 8.7 4.8 1.7 0.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 95.1% 1.6    1.3 0.3
16-2 74.1% 3.6    2.5 1.1 0.0
15-3 47.8% 4.2    2.2 1.8 0.2
14-4 22.3% 2.8    1.0 1.4 0.4 0.0
13-5 7.2% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 7.6 5.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 90.8% 36.5% 54.3% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.5%
17-1 1.7% 76.9% 33.6% 43.3% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 65.2%
16-2 4.8% 61.7% 29.3% 32.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.8 45.8%
15-3 8.7% 45.1% 23.3% 21.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.8 28.5%
14-4 12.3% 31.6% 19.2% 12.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.4 15.3%
13-5 14.9% 20.6% 15.2% 5.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 11.9 6.4%
12-6 14.9% 13.5% 11.6% 1.9% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 12.9 2.1%
11-7 13.3% 8.7% 8.1% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 12.2 0.6%
10-8 10.9% 5.4% 5.3% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.3 0.2%
9-9 7.7% 3.7% 3.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.4
8-10 4.9% 2.1% 2.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
7-11 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
6-12 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.7% 12.6% 7.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 2.6 5.9 5.6 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 80.3 8.1%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.1 1.2 3.7 17.1 23.2 19.5 11.0 12.2 7.3 1.2 1.2 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 91.9% 6.9 1.4 8.1 16.2 16.2 18.9 10.8 12.2 2.7 5.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 94.4% 7.1 5.6 5.6 13.9 2.8 16.7 33.3 5.6 8.3 2.8