Baylor
Big 12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#34
Achievement Rating+11.8#42
Pace64.3#303
Improvement+7.8#2

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#29
First Shot+1.0#154
After Offensive Rebound+5.8#1
Layup/Dunks-0.4#185
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#213
Freethrows-0.7#230
Improvement+8.4#1

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#47
First Shot+3.6#65
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#52
Layups/Dunks+7.1#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#332
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#251
Freethrows+1.3#86
Improvement-0.6#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 1.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.4% 98.2% 89.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.8% 98.0% 88.6%
Average Seed 8.2 7.5 8.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 99.3% 89.5%
Conference Champion 2.3% 7.3% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.2% 1.0% 3.9%
First Round89.9% 97.7% 87.4%
Second Round46.2% 54.4% 43.5%
Sweet Sixteen11.2% 15.1% 10.0%
Elite Eight4.2% 5.5% 3.7%
Final Four1.1% 1.5% 0.9%
Championship Game0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 24.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 229   Texas Southern L 69-72 95%     0 - 1 -10.0 -7.8 -2.3
  Nov 10, 2018 340   Southern W 80-53 99%     1 - 1 +10.8 +1.1 +10.4
  Nov 12, 2018 283   Prairie View W 91-80 97%     2 - 1 +1.5 +11.7 -10.5
  Nov 16, 2018 323   Nicholls St. W 81-54 98%     3 - 1 +13.8 +6.9 +8.7
  Nov 23, 2018 39   Mississippi L 70-78 53%     3 - 2 +3.0 -2.9 +6.4
  Nov 24, 2018 132   George Mason W 72-61 81%     4 - 2 +13.6 +0.7 +12.8
  Nov 27, 2018 231   South Dakota W 63-57 95%     5 - 2 -1.1 -5.3 +4.9
  Dec 01, 2018 112   @ Wichita St. L 63-71 69%     5 - 3 -1.3 -7.4 +6.3
  Dec 15, 2018 81   @ Arizona W 58-49 61%     6 - 3 +17.9 -0.9 +20.1
  Dec 18, 2018 253   Stephen F. Austin L 58-59 96%     6 - 4 -9.1 -16.2 +7.0
  Dec 21, 2018 55   Oregon W 57-47 72%     7 - 4 +15.7 -0.1 +17.7
  Dec 29, 2018 279   New Orleans W 84-44 96%     8 - 4 +30.7 +8.4 +21.5
  Jan 05, 2019 33   @ TCU L 81-85 40%     8 - 5 0 - 1 +10.5 +13.2 -2.7
  Jan 08, 2019 12   Iowa St. W 73-70 43%     9 - 5 1 - 1 +16.5 +10.4 +6.3
  Jan 12, 2019 11   Kansas L 68-73 42%     9 - 6 1 - 2 +8.8 +4.5 +4.2
  Jan 14, 2019 89   @ Oklahoma St. W 73-69 64%     10 - 6 2 - 2 +12.2 +12.1 +0.5
  Jan 19, 2019 9   Texas Tech W 73-62 40%     11 - 6 3 - 2 +25.3 +17.6 +8.6
  Jan 21, 2019 99   @ West Virginia W 85-73 65%     12 - 6 4 - 2 +19.7 +10.3 +8.7
  Jan 26, 2019 45   Alabama W 73-68 68%     13 - 6 +11.8 +9.9 +2.4
  Jan 28, 2019 35   @ Oklahoma W 77-47 40%     14 - 6 5 - 2 +44.4 +16.4 +29.2
  Feb 02, 2019 33   TCU W 90-64 60%     15 - 6 6 - 2 +35.1 +32.1 +6.1
  Feb 06, 2019 26   @ Texas L 72-84 35%     15 - 7 6 - 3 +3.7 +9.9 -6.7
  Feb 09, 2019 25   Kansas St. L 63-70 56%     15 - 8 6 - 4 +3.3 +9.2 -7.1
  Feb 11, 2019 35   Oklahoma W 59-53 61%     16 - 8 7 - 4 +15.0 +4.7 +11.5
  Feb 16, 2019 9   @ Texas Tech L 61-86 23%     16 - 9 7 - 5 -5.3 +5.7 -12.3
  Feb 19, 2019 12   @ Iowa St. L 68-75 24%    
  Feb 23, 2019 99   West Virginia W 76-67 82%    
  Feb 27, 2019 26   Texas W 68-66 57%    
  Mar 02, 2019 25   @ Kansas St. L 62-66 35%    
  Mar 06, 2019 89   Oklahoma St. W 73-64 81%    
  Mar 09, 2019 11   @ Kansas L 67-74 23%    
Projected Record 19.0 - 12.0 10.0 - 8.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 0.9 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 3.7 0.2 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 6.4 2.5 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.1 6.0 11.7 0.3 18.0 4th
5th 0.4 10.0 25.0 4.9 0.0 40.2 5th
6th 0.3 4.6 13.2 3.4 21.5 6th
7th 0.4 2.3 1.0 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.8 7.3 24.3 34.6 24.1 7.8 1.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 81.0% 0.9    0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 16.9% 1.3    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.1% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.8% 99.9% 9.1% 90.8% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 24.1% 99.2% 7.0% 92.2% 7.5 0.0 0.5 3.1 8.3 8.1 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 99.1%
10-8 34.6% 96.9% 5.3% 91.6% 8.2 0.1 1.5 6.5 12.0 9.4 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.1 96.7%
9-9 24.3% 89.3% 4.2% 85.1% 9.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.4 7.4 4.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 2.6 88.8%
8-10 7.3% 45.4% 2.7% 42.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.0 43.9%
7-11 0.8% 8.1% 1.2% 6.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.9%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 91.4% 5.6% 85.7% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 7.5 19.4 27.0 20.7 9.4 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.6 90.8%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.0 2.0 15.7 60.8 19.6 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 4.8 11.9 27.1 33.9 20.3 6.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 5.5 16.7 28.7 45.4 9.3
Lose Out 0.4%