Belmont
Ohio Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#88
Achievement Rating+12.5#44
Pace81.7#13
Improvement-1.2#267

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#51
First Shot+4.1#64
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#113
Layup/Dunks+9.0#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#118
Freethrows-4.1#334
Improvement-1.7#308

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#144
First Shot+0.0#172
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#116
Layups/Dunks+5.1#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#347
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#267
Freethrows+2.6#49
Improvement+0.5#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.7% 49.0% 39.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.4% 7.5% 2.2%
Average Seed 12.3 11.7 12.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.8% 99.5%
Conference Champion 47.8% 54.7% 45.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 2.8% 1.1%
First Round40.8% 47.4% 38.7%
Second Round9.5% 13.2% 8.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 3.5% 2.3%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.8% 0.5%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 24.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 150   Illinois St. W 100-89 78%     1 - 0 +8.7 +15.3 -7.7
  Nov 12, 2018 252   Middle Tennessee W 92-73 90%     2 - 0 +10.8 +5.4 +2.8
  Nov 15, 2018 71   @ Lipscomb W 87-83 34%     3 - 0 +14.0 +4.2 +9.1
  Nov 24, 2018 343   @ Kennesaw St. W 91-53 93%     4 - 0 +27.0 +8.0 +15.6
  Nov 29, 2018 189   @ Samford W 99-93 67%     5 - 0 +7.3 +8.1 -1.9
  Dec 01, 2018 203   @ Green Bay L 92-100 70%     5 - 1 -7.6 +3.8 -10.0
  Dec 04, 2018 71   Lipscomb W 76-74 57%     6 - 1 +6.0 -3.0 +8.7
  Dec 15, 2018 44   @ UCLA L 80-87 24%    
  Dec 19, 2018 85   Western Kentucky W 82-79 61%    
  Dec 29, 2018 20   @ Purdue L 75-86 16%    
  Jan 03, 2019 145   Jacksonville St. W 84-77 75%    
  Jan 05, 2019 334   Tennessee Tech W 91-70 97%    
  Jan 10, 2019 281   Morehead St. W 90-74 92%    
  Jan 12, 2019 274   Eastern Kentucky W 100-85 92%    
  Jan 17, 2019 145   @ Jacksonville St. W 81-80 56%    
  Jan 19, 2019 276   Tennessee St. W 86-71 92%    
  Jan 24, 2019 102   @ Murray St. L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 26, 2019 194   @ Austin Peay W 85-80 67%    
  Jan 31, 2019 272   Southeast Missouri St. W 88-73 91%    
  Feb 02, 2019 299   Tennessee Martin W 93-76 93%    
  Feb 07, 2019 274   @ Eastern Kentucky W 97-88 79%    
  Feb 09, 2019 281   @ Morehead St. W 87-77 80%    
  Feb 14, 2019 276   @ Tennessee St. W 83-74 79%    
  Feb 16, 2019 334   @ Tennessee Tech W 88-73 91%    
  Feb 21, 2019 317   Eastern Illinois W 88-69 95%    
  Feb 23, 2019 327   SIU Edwardsville W 92-72 96%    
  Feb 28, 2019 299   @ Tennessee Martin W 90-79 82%    
  Mar 02, 2019 272   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 85-76 79%    
Projected Record 21.8 - 6.2 14.8 - 3.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 3.2 9.4 15.4 13.7 5.4 47.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.3 9.2 10.0 4.8 0.6 29.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 5.0 3.8 1.0 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.5 10.9 16.3 20.4 20.2 14.3 5.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.4    5.4
17-1 96.1% 13.7    11.8 1.9
16-2 76.3% 15.4    10.4 4.7 0.3 0.0
15-3 46.1% 9.4    4.5 4.1 0.8 0.0
14-4 19.5% 3.2    1.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.8% 47.8 33.2 12.5 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.4% 73.6% 64.5% 9.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 25.5%
17-1 14.3% 62.1% 56.7% 5.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.6 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 5.4 12.6%
16-2 20.2% 51.0% 48.5% 2.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 4.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.9 4.9%
15-3 20.4% 42.0% 41.0% 1.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.0 3.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.8 1.8%
14-4 16.3% 32.9% 32.6% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.9 0.3%
13-5 10.9% 25.4% 25.4% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.2 0.1%
12-6 6.5% 18.3% 18.3% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 5.3
11-7 3.3% 12.4% 12.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.9
10-8 1.6% 7.7% 7.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
9-9 0.6% 7.4% 7.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 0.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 41.7% 39.6% 2.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.6 6.5 13.9 11.9 5.5 1.2 0.1 58.3 3.4%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 8.5 0.4 1.6 2.0 6.1 9.3 11.7 17.0 10.5 19.4 17.0 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 55.4% 9.2 2.4 1.2 6.0 9.6 9.6 9.6 15.7 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 70.6% 9.7 2.9 5.9 5.9 8.8 17.6 23.5 5.9