Belmont
Ohio Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#70
Achievement Rating+11.9#38
Pace76.5#36
Improvement-0.9#232

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#32
First Shot+6.6#24
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#175
Layup/Dunks+7.8#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#49
Freethrows-2.4#319
Improvement+0.8#148

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#163
First Shot+0.5#157
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#191
Layups/Dunks+5.4#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#350
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#205
Freethrows+1.0#111
Improvement-1.7#270
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.1% 45.7% 33.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.2% 7.6% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 86.8% 89.2% 43.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.0% 4.2% 0.4%
First Round42.7% 43.2% 33.5%
Second Round9.8% 10.0% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.2% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 94.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 157   Illinois St. W 100-89 81%     1 - 0 +8.5 +15.9 -8.4
  Nov 12, 2018 243   Middle Tennessee W 92-73 91%     2 - 0 +11.4 +4.6 +4.2
  Nov 15, 2018 48   @ Lipscomb W 87-83 31%     3 - 0 +16.1 +6.7 +8.7
  Nov 24, 2018 343   @ Kennesaw St. W 91-53 95%     4 - 0 +26.7 +5.8 +17.4
  Nov 29, 2018 176   @ Samford W 99-93 69%     5 - 0 +8.0 +7.5 -0.6
  Dec 01, 2018 227   @ Green Bay L 92-100 78%     5 - 1 -9.2 +1.7 -9.6
  Dec 04, 2018 48   Lipscomb W 76-74 51%     6 - 1 +8.6 -0.1 +8.5
  Dec 15, 2018 92   @ UCLA W 74-72 46%     7 - 1 +10.1 +1.5 +8.5
  Dec 19, 2018 121   Western Kentucky W 80-74 73%     8 - 1 +6.7 +1.8 +4.4
  Dec 29, 2018 10   @ Purdue L 62-73 13%     8 - 2 +8.3 -2.9 +10.9
  Jan 03, 2019 131   Jacksonville St. L 73-83 75%     8 - 3 0 - 1 -10.0 +4.0 -14.2
  Jan 05, 2019 329   Tennessee Tech W 79-67 96%     9 - 3 1 - 1 -2.1 +7.2 -8.7
  Jan 10, 2019 270   Morehead St. W 77-60 92%     10 - 3 2 - 1 +8.1 -8.0 +14.9
  Jan 12, 2019 263   Eastern Kentucky W 109-93 92%     11 - 3 3 - 1 +7.4 +11.5 -7.4
  Jan 17, 2019 131   @ Jacksonville St. L 80-91 56%     11 - 4 3 - 2 -5.5 -1.9 -1.7
  Jan 19, 2019 308   Tennessee St. W 92-74 95%     12 - 4 4 - 2 +6.6 +11.8 -5.9
  Jan 24, 2019 84   @ Murray St. W 79-66 43%     13 - 4 5 - 2 +21.8 +7.6 +13.9
  Jan 26, 2019 139   @ Austin Peay W 96-92 58%     14 - 4 6 - 2 +8.9 +16.4 -7.8
  Jan 31, 2019 321   Southeast Missouri St. W 97-71 96%     15 - 4 7 - 2 +13.1 +7.5 +2.6
  Feb 02, 2019 301   Tennessee Martin W 82-67 94%     16 - 4 8 - 2 +4.2 +5.8 -0.8
  Feb 07, 2019 263   @ Eastern Kentucky W 83-65 83%     17 - 4 9 - 2 +14.8 +2.9 +10.2
  Feb 09, 2019 270   @ Morehead St. W 96-86 84%     18 - 4 10 - 2 +6.5 +19.6 -13.0
  Feb 14, 2019 308   @ Tennessee St. W 77-66 88%     19 - 4 11 - 2 +5.0 +3.2 +1.9
  Feb 16, 2019 329   @ Tennessee Tech W 93-65 92%     20 - 4 12 - 2 +19.4 +19.1 -0.1
  Feb 21, 2019 290   Eastern Illinois W 87-70 95%    
  Feb 23, 2019 330   SIU Edwardsville W 90-69 98%    
  Feb 28, 2019 301   @ Tennessee Martin W 87-75 87%    
  Mar 02, 2019 321   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 85-70 91%    
Projected Record 23.7 - 4.3 15.7 - 2.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 12.6 74.1 86.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 10.2 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 3.0 22.8 74.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 74.1    40.6 33.5
15-3 55.2% 12.6    1.6 6.0 4.4 0.6
14-4 6.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 86.8% 86.8 42.1 39.5 4.5 0.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 74.1% 48.7% 43.3% 5.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 3.2 14.6 14.8 2.8 0.1 38.0 9.6%
15-3 22.8% 36.0% 35.0% 1.0% 12.1 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.4 2.1 0.1 14.6 1.6%
14-4 3.0% 27.6% 27.1% 0.6% 12.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.2 0.8%
13-5 0.2% 12.8% 12.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.1% 40.8% 4.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 3.3 16.1 19.5 5.3 0.2 54.9 7.2%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 32.0% 100.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 9.7 43.1 39.4 5.8 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 21.1% 11.7% 12.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.2 2.7 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 21.0% 7.5% 12.1 0.1 1.2 4.3 1.8 0.1