Boise St.
Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#125
Achievement Rating-2.7#202
Pace66.1#258
Improvement+1.2#131

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#112
First Shot+1.9#130
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#148
Layup/Dunks+0.6#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#253
Freethrows+1.0#113
Improvement+1.1#130

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#141
First Shot-0.8#199
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#30
Layups/Dunks+0.7#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#276
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#191
Freethrows+0.1#177
Improvement+0.1#175
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.4% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 6.0% 13.7% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 66.7% 88.8% 52.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.8% 2.4% 1.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 38.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 313   Idaho St. L 70-72 91%     0 - 1 -13.7 -10.6 -3.2
  Nov 16, 2018 333   Jackson St. W 70-53 94%     1 - 1 +2.2 -5.5 +7.7
  Nov 19, 2018 51   Creighton L 82-94 28%     1 - 2 -2.8 +6.7 -8.7
  Nov 20, 2018 133   St. Bonaventure W 72-52 54%     2 - 2 +22.3 +9.8 +14.4
  Nov 21, 2018 165   Illinois St. L 70-73 63%     2 - 3 -3.2 -2.1 -1.1
  Nov 27, 2018 130   @ Drake L 74-83 41%     2 - 4 -3.5 -0.5 -2.6
  Dec 01, 2018 102   @ Grand Canyon L 67-69 34%     2 - 5 +5.6 +2.3 +3.1
  Dec 12, 2018 320   Alabama St. W 67-57 92%     3 - 5 -2.8 -5.7 +3.7
  Dec 15, 2018 55   @ Oregon L 54-66 22%     3 - 6 -0.8 -3.0 +0.5
  Dec 19, 2018 143   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-70 45%     3 - 7 +3.5 +7.7 -4.3
  Dec 22, 2018 187   Pacific W 83-71 77%     4 - 7 +7.6 +15.7 -7.0
  Dec 29, 2018 55   Oregon L 50-62 41%     4 - 8 -6.3 -13.1 +5.7
  Jan 02, 2019 298   @ Wyoming W 69-55 78%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +8.9 +5.1 +5.9
  Jan 05, 2019 115   San Diego St. W 88-64 58%     6 - 8 2 - 0 +25.2 +18.9 +7.3
  Jan 12, 2019 338   @ San Jose St. W 87-64 89%     7 - 8 3 - 0 +12.6 +15.8 -2.0
  Jan 15, 2019 13   Nevada L 71-72 17%     7 - 9 3 - 1 +12.3 +3.5 +8.8
  Jan 19, 2019 59   Fresno St. L 53-63 43%     7 - 10 3 - 2 -4.9 -11.3 +5.4
  Jan 22, 2019 239   @ Air Force L 60-74 69%     7 - 11 3 - 3 -15.8 -9.8 -6.8
  Jan 26, 2019 298   Wyoming W 77-52 90%     8 - 11 4 - 3 +14.4 -2.6 +16.0
  Jan 29, 2019 178   @ Colorado St. W 70-68 56%     9 - 11 5 - 3 +3.6 +2.3 +1.5
  Feb 02, 2019 13   @ Nevada L 73-93 8%     9 - 12 5 - 4 -1.1 +9.2 -10.5
  Feb 06, 2019 151   UNLV L 72-83 70%     9 - 13 5 - 5 -13.1 +1.2 -15.1
  Feb 09, 2019 338   San Jose St. W 105-57 95%     10 - 13 6 - 5 +32.1 +29.0 +4.1
  Feb 13, 2019 59   @ Fresno St. L 63-65 24%     10 - 14 6 - 6 +8.7 +1.4 +7.1
  Feb 16, 2019 115   @ San Diego St. L 65-71 37%     10 - 15 6 - 7 +0.7 -0.6 +0.9
  Feb 23, 2019 49   Utah St. L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 27, 2019 178   Colorado St. W 76-69 75%    
  Mar 02, 2019 151   @ UNLV L 73-74 49%    
  Mar 06, 2019 155   @ New Mexico L 75-76 49%    
  Mar 09, 2019 239   Air Force W 73-62 84%    
Projected Record 13.0 - 17.0 9.0 - 9.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.4 3rd
4th 0.5 8.7 5.6 14.8 4th
5th 0.3 13.4 14.2 0.9 28.7 5th
6th 0.3 12.8 20.2 2.0 0.0 35.4 6th
7th 0.0 3.1 11.0 0.8 14.9 7th
8th 0.2 3.7 0.5 4.4 8th
9th 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.9 7.8 24.6 34.9 24.9 6.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 6.9% 3.4% 3.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.7
10-8 24.9% 2.7% 2.7% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 24.2
9-9 34.9% 1.5% 1.5% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 34.4
8-10 24.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 24.3
7-11 7.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.7
6-12 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.1 0.8 16.9 57.8 23.6 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.2%
Lose Out 0.4%