Boise St.
Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#134
Achievement Rating-6.4#249
Pace66.8#258
Improvement-0.2#197

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#166
First Shot+1.2#144
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#219
Layup/Dunks+1.6#121
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows-2.0#277
Improvement-0.2#192

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#108
First Shot+1.6#121
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#148
Layups/Dunks+2.6#86
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#118
Freethrows-0.1#184
Improvement+0.0#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.4% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 31.0% 47.5% 22.7%
.500 or above in Conference 61.7% 68.5% 58.3%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.9% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.7% 1.2%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round1.8% 2.4% 1.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 33.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 248   Idaho St. L 70-72 84%     0 - 1 -10.1 -8.4 -1.7
  Nov 16, 2018 335   Jackson St. W 70-53 94%     1 - 1 +1.6 -6.3 +7.9
  Nov 19, 2018 41   Creighton L 82-94 22%     1 - 2 -1.5 +5.7 -6.5
  Nov 20, 2018 154   St. Bonaventure W 72-52 57%     2 - 2 +20.6 +8.2 +14.3
  Nov 21, 2018 152   Illinois St. L 70-73 56%     2 - 3 -2.3 -2.5 +0.1
  Nov 27, 2018 151   @ Drake L 74-83 44%     2 - 4 -5.2 -1.7 -3.1
  Dec 01, 2018 131   @ Grand Canyon L 67-69 37%     2 - 5 +3.6 +1.8 +1.7
  Dec 12, 2018 326   Alabama St. W 67-57 93%     3 - 5 -3.9 -6.6 +3.5
  Dec 15, 2018 33   @ Oregon L 54-66 12%     3 - 6 +2.9 -3.7 +4.9
  Dec 19, 2018 119   @ Loyola Marymount L 62-67 34%    
  Dec 22, 2018 163   Pacific W 71-66 69%    
  Dec 29, 2018 33   Oregon L 64-71 26%    
  Jan 02, 2019 224   @ Wyoming W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 05, 2019 74   San Diego St. L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 12, 2019 323   @ San Jose St. W 72-62 82%    
  Jan 15, 2019 10   Nevada L 67-79 14%    
  Jan 19, 2019 62   Fresno St. L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 22, 2019 243   @ Air Force W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 26, 2019 224   Wyoming W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 29, 2019 211   @ Colorado St. W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 02, 2019 10   @ Nevada L 64-82 5%    
  Feb 06, 2019 129   UNLV W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 09, 2019 323   San Jose St. W 75-59 92%    
  Feb 13, 2019 62   @ Fresno St. L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 16, 2019 74   @ San Diego St. L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 23, 2019 44   Utah St. L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 27, 2019 211   Colorado St. W 77-69 77%    
  Mar 02, 2019 129   @ UNLV L 68-72 38%    
  Mar 06, 2019 148   @ New Mexico L 77-79 44%    
  Mar 09, 2019 243   Air Force W 72-62 82%    
Projected Record 13.5 - 16.5 9.2 - 8.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 4.6 6.5 3.1 0.3 0.0 15.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 5.7 7.9 3.5 0.4 19.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.0 6.6 7.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 19.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.3 5.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.6 3.2 0.8 0.1 8.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 4.0 6.8 10.9 14.3 15.8 15.7 12.8 8.9 5.2 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 85.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-3 43.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
14-4 12.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.2% 23.8% 19.0% 4.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.9%
15-3 0.9% 12.5% 9.1% 3.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.8%
14-4 2.3% 9.9% 9.1% 0.9% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.1 0.9%
13-5 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.9
12-6 8.9% 3.3% 3.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.6
11-7 12.8% 2.0% 2.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.5
10-8 15.7% 2.0% 2.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 15.4
9-9 15.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 15.6
8-10 14.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.2
7-11 10.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.8
6-12 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
5-13 4.0% 4.0
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 98.1 0.1%