Bowling Green
Mid-American
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#100
Achievement Rating+6.9#79
Pace73.9#66
Improvement+8.0#3

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#117
First Shot+1.3#144
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#114
Layup/Dunks-2.3#260
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#106
Freethrows-0.3#203
Improvement+5.3#14

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#99
First Shot+0.1#167
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#5
Layups/Dunks+0.0#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#286
Freethrows+0.4#151
Improvement+2.7#48
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.3% 11.1% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.3 12.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 17.5% 22.5% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round10.2% 10.9% 8.7%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Home) - 67.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 42   @ St. John's L 80-84 21%     0 - 1 +9.3 +6.3 +3.3
  Nov 12, 2018 47   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 61-72 25%     0 - 2 +1.1 -4.6 +6.4
  Nov 15, 2018 309   NC Central W 75-60 93%     1 - 2 +3.5 +5.2 -0.2
  Nov 19, 2018 241   Hampton W 81-79 82%     2 - 2 -2.6 -4.1 +1.3
  Nov 20, 2018 260   @ Detroit Mercy L 67-82 77%     2 - 3 -17.9 -10.9 -6.7
  Nov 25, 2018 243   Drexel W 81-71 88%     3 - 3 +2.4 -8.7 +9.9
  Dec 01, 2018 188   @ Hartford L 63-76 65%     3 - 4 -12.0 -9.1 -3.5
  Dec 05, 2018 306   @ Cleveland St. L 64-82 84%     3 - 5 -23.7 -12.7 -11.0
  Dec 08, 2018 224   Green Bay W 97-68 86%     4 - 5 +22.4 +6.7 +11.8
  Dec 21, 2018 289   Western Carolina W 73-52 91%     5 - 5 +11.0 -1.1 +13.5
  Dec 30, 2018 300   Tennessee Martin W 94-80 92%     6 - 5 +3.3 +6.0 -3.8
  Jan 05, 2019 142   @ Kent St. W 86-64 52%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +26.5 +9.3 +16.1
  Jan 08, 2019 209   Ohio W 82-63 84%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +13.4 +12.7 +1.3
  Jan 12, 2019 147   @ Central Michigan W 97-87 53%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +14.1 +5.4 +6.9
  Jan 15, 2019 120   Ball St. W 79-78 65%     10 - 5 4 - 0 +1.9 -0.2 +2.0
  Jan 19, 2019 263   Western Michigan W 79-48 89%     11 - 5 5 - 0 +22.4 -0.1 +21.9
  Jan 22, 2019 149   @ Eastern Michigan W 80-67 54%     12 - 5 6 - 0 +17.0 +19.0 -0.5
  Jan 26, 2019 144   @ Miami (OH) L 53-67 52%     12 - 6 6 - 1 -9.5 -14.5 +4.1
  Feb 02, 2019 28   Buffalo W 92-88 31%     13 - 6 7 - 1 +14.1 +12.6 +1.1
  Feb 05, 2019 263   @ Western Michigan W 85-72 78%     14 - 6 8 - 1 +9.9 +5.6 +3.6
  Feb 09, 2019 67   Toledo L 71-78 52%     14 - 7 8 - 2 -2.6 -3.2 +0.9
  Feb 12, 2019 147   Central Michigan W 79-72 73%     15 - 7 9 - 2 +5.6 +0.4 +5.0
  Feb 16, 2019 150   @ Northern Illinois W 87-67 56%     16 - 7 10 - 2 +23.5 +17.1 +7.0
  Feb 19, 2019 126   Akron W 69-65 67%    
  Feb 23, 2019 209   @ Ohio W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 26, 2019 144   Miami (OH) W 74-68 72%    
  Mar 02, 2019 142   Kent St. W 79-73 72%    
  Mar 05, 2019 126   @ Akron L 66-67 45%    
  Mar 08, 2019 28   @ Buffalo L 76-87 15%    
Projected Record 19.4 - 9.6 13.4 - 4.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 5.0 9.5 2.3 17.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 8.5 25.3 25.3 5.8 65.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 7.3 4.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.2 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.7 5.1 16.3 30.0 30.3 15.3 2.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.3    2.3
15-3 62.1% 9.5    3.5 6.0
14-4 16.6% 5.0    0.9 3.6 0.6 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.6    0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 17.5% 17.5 6.7 9.9 0.8 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.3% 24.2% 18.6% 5.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8 6.8%
15-3 15.3% 14.4% 13.8% 0.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 13.1 0.6%
14-4 30.3% 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 27.0 0.0%
13-5 30.0% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 27.2 0.0%
12-6 16.3% 7.3% 7.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 15.1
11-7 5.1% 5.2% 5.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.8
10-8 0.7% 3.2% 3.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.3% 10.1% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.5 4.1 1.2 0.1 89.7 0.3%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.7 0.2 0.9 3.9 6.5 22.5 48.6 16.9 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 14.0% 12.0 0.6 3.0 7.0 3.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 3.9% 12.1 0.7 1.9 1.3
Lose Out 0.2%