Bucknell
Patriot League
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#143
Achievement Rating+4.2#114
Pace75.0#54
Improvement+1.7#102

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#138
First Shot+2.7#96
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#271
Layup/Dunks-0.4#184
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#46
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement-0.4#210

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#162
First Shot+2.6#90
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#332
Layups/Dunks-0.2#181
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#175
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#81
Freethrows+0.3#156
Improvement+2.1#79
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.6% 33.4% 30.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 93.3% 99.0% 89.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round31.5% 33.4% 30.2%
Second Round2.1% 2.6% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Away) - 42.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 144   @ St. Bonaventure W 88-85 40%     1 - 0 +7.4 +9.4 -2.4
  Nov 10, 2018 286   Fairfield L 58-60 86%     1 - 1 -11.7 -12.2 +0.4
  Nov 13, 2018 239   Canisius L 73-82 80%     1 - 2 -16.2 -6.3 -9.7
  Nov 25, 2018 83   @ Vermont W 69-61 25%     2 - 2 +16.8 +1.7 +15.3
  Nov 28, 2018 94   Northeastern L 78-96 47%     2 - 3 -15.5 +5.3 -21.0
  Dec 01, 2018 260   Monmouth W 65-43 83%     3 - 3 +13.5 -6.5 +20.6
  Dec 04, 2018 193   @ La Salle W 92-79 54%     4 - 3 +13.8 +9.6 +2.6
  Dec 15, 2018 40   @ Ohio St. L 71-73 13%     4 - 4 +11.7 +8.7 +2.9
  Dec 19, 2018 49   @ St. Mary's L 56-85 17%     4 - 5 -17.0 -10.0 -9.0
  Dec 22, 2018 136   Rhode Island W 84-82 48%     5 - 5 +4.3 +4.9 -0.8
  Dec 23, 2018 33   TCU L 65-82 17%     5 - 6 -5.2 -3.3 -1.6
  Dec 25, 2018 150   UNLV W 97-72 53%     6 - 6 +25.9 +18.7 +6.4
  Jan 02, 2019 234   @ Army W 64-63 63%     7 - 6 1 - 0 -0.8 -8.2 +7.5
  Jan 05, 2019 242   @ Boston University L 80-87 64%     7 - 7 1 - 1 -9.0 +3.8 -12.7
  Jan 09, 2019 156   Colgate W 84-81 65%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +0.8 +2.9 -2.3
  Jan 12, 2019 205   American W 55-54 75%     9 - 7 3 - 1 -4.4 -18.8 +14.4
  Jan 14, 2019 226   Holy Cross W 93-78 78%     10 - 7 4 - 1 +8.4 +17.7 -9.1
  Jan 19, 2019 159   @ Lehigh W 85-83 45%     11 - 7 5 - 1 +4.9 +7.7 -2.8
  Jan 23, 2019 281   Loyola Maryland W 71-68 85%     12 - 7 6 - 1 -6.4 -4.2 -2.1
  Jan 26, 2019 205   @ American L 68-76 56%     12 - 8 6 - 2 -8.0 -5.2 -2.7
  Jan 30, 2019 305   Navy W 69-57 88%     13 - 8 7 - 2 +1.0 -8.1 +8.9
  Feb 02, 2019 293   @ Lafayette W 94-66 73%     14 - 8 8 - 2 +23.2 +7.5 +13.0
  Feb 06, 2019 281   @ Loyola Maryland W 84-72 71%     15 - 8 9 - 2 +8.0 +1.1 +5.9
  Feb 09, 2019 242   Boston University W 82-76 81%     16 - 8 10 - 2 -1.5 +2.2 -3.8
  Feb 11, 2019 159   Lehigh W 87-75 66%     17 - 8 11 - 2 +9.5 +2.8 +5.8
  Feb 16, 2019 226   @ Holy Cross L 71-72 61%     17 - 9 11 - 3 -2.2 -3.8 +1.6
  Feb 19, 2019 156   @ Colgate L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 24, 2019 293   Lafayette W 83-71 87%    
  Feb 27, 2019 305   @ Navy W 75-68 75%    
  Mar 02, 2019 234   Army W 79-70 80%    
Projected Record 19.8 - 10.2 13.8 - 4.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.8 22.2 44.7 23.6 93.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.7 3.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.5 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.5 6.0 25.2 44.7 23.6 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 23.6    23.6
14-4 100.0% 44.7    39.2 5.5
13-5 88.0% 22.2    11.2 9.3 1.7
12-6 46.4% 2.8    0.5 1.3 0.9 0.1
11-7 8.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8
9-9
Total 93.3% 93.3 74.4 16.1 2.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 23.6% 35.3% 35.3% 13.7 0.2 3.0 4.5 0.6 0.0 15.3
14-4 44.7% 32.5% 32.5% 14.4 0.6 7.3 6.4 0.1 30.2
13-5 25.2% 28.4% 28.4% 14.7 0.1 2.2 4.6 0.3 18.1
12-6 6.0% 24.2% 24.2% 14.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.2 4.6
11-7 0.5% 20.0% 20.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.6% 31.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.2 3.7 14.3 12.8 0.6 68.5 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.3% 100.0% 13.7 2.5 35.9 54.4 7.2 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.4%
Lose Out 0.1%