Buffalo
Mid-American
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#28
Achievement Rating+16.6#19
Pace83.5#9
Improvement-1.0#233

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#26
First Shot+6.1#31
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#92
Layup/Dunks+5.7#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#76
Freethrows+1.1#103
Improvement-0.2#200

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#36
First Shot+4.2#53
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#44
Layups/Dunks-0.4#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#142
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#47
Freethrows+0.7#126
Improvement-0.8#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.0% 3.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.9% 97.0% 93.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.0% 93.2% 87.1%
Average Seed 8.4 8.4 9.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 92.9% 93.5% 79.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.5% 8.3% 13.6%
First Round93.4% 93.6% 87.8%
Second Round51.9% 52.4% 41.4%
Sweet Sixteen16.1% 16.3% 10.3%
Elite Eight5.9% 6.0% 3.8%
Final Four1.8% 1.8% 1.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Home) - 96.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 240   St. Francis (PA) W 82-67 96%     1 - 0 +7.6 -2.6 +9.3
  Nov 09, 2018 105   @ West Virginia W 99-94 70%     2 - 0 +12.4 +11.0 +0.4
  Nov 12, 2018 145   @ Southern Illinois W 62-53 79%     3 - 0 +13.4 -4.4 +18.4
  Nov 21, 2018 203   Dartmouth W 110-71 94%     4 - 0 +33.8 +15.4 +12.5
  Nov 24, 2018 235   Marist W 76-49 96%     5 - 0 +19.8 +4.4 +17.5
  Nov 30, 2018 304   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 96-77 96%     6 - 0 +10.7 +12.9 -3.3
  Dec 01, 2018 61   San Francisco W 85-81 69%     7 - 0 +11.7 +7.9 +3.5
  Dec 08, 2018 133   @ St. Bonaventure W 80-62 77%     8 - 0 +23.0 +11.2 +11.6
  Dec 15, 2018 145   Southern Illinois W 73-65 90%     9 - 0 +6.8 +1.0 +6.0
  Dec 18, 2018 40   @ Syracuse W 71-59 47%     10 - 0 +25.7 +7.9 +17.9
  Dec 21, 2018 24   @ Marquette L 85-103 37%     10 - 1 -1.6 +10.6 -10.3
  Dec 29, 2018 247   @ Canisius W 87-72 92%     11 - 1 +12.7 +7.5 +4.4
  Jan 04, 2019 149   @ Eastern Michigan W 74-58 80%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +20.0 +6.8 +13.8
  Jan 08, 2019 67   Toledo W 110-80 79%     13 - 1 2 - 0 +34.4 +23.8 +6.3
  Jan 12, 2019 144   Miami (OH) W 88-64 90%     14 - 1 3 - 0 +23.0 +13.3 +9.4
  Jan 15, 2019 263   @ Western Michigan W 88-79 92%     15 - 1 4 - 0 +5.9 +3.9 +1.1
  Jan 18, 2019 149   Eastern Michigan W 77-65 91%     16 - 1 5 - 0 +10.4 +4.2 +6.2
  Jan 22, 2019 150   @ Northern Illinois L 75-77 81%     16 - 2 5 - 1 +1.5 -8.2 +10.0
  Jan 25, 2019 142   @ Kent St. W 88-79 79%     17 - 2 6 - 1 +13.5 +6.3 +6.2
  Jan 29, 2019 120   Ball St. W 83-59 87%     18 - 2 7 - 1 +24.9 +2.3 +20.0
  Feb 02, 2019 100   @ Bowling Green L 88-92 69%     18 - 3 7 - 2 +3.7 +8.8 -4.6
  Feb 09, 2019 147   Central Michigan W 90-76 90%     19 - 3 8 - 2 +12.6 +1.1 +9.6
  Feb 12, 2019 126   @ Akron W 76-70 75%     20 - 3 9 - 2 +12.0 +6.6 +5.1
  Feb 15, 2019 67   @ Toledo W 88-82 62%     21 - 3 10 - 2 +15.9 +10.3 +4.9
  Feb 19, 2019 209   Ohio W 86-68 96%    
  Feb 23, 2019 142   Kent St. W 88-74 91%    
  Feb 26, 2019 126   Akron W 77-65 88%    
  Mar 02, 2019 144   @ Miami (OH) W 80-72 78%    
  Mar 05, 2019 209   @ Ohio W 84-71 88%    
  Mar 08, 2019 100   Bowling Green W 87-76 85%    
Projected Record 26.3 - 3.7 15.3 - 2.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 9.9 35.8 46.2 92.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.6 1.2 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.9 13.4 37.1 46.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 46.2    46.2
15-3 96.7% 35.8    29.8 6.0
14-4 73.5% 9.9    5.0 4.3 0.6 0.0
13-5 32.5% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 92.9% 92.9 81.3 10.7 0.8 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 46.2% 98.9% 59.2% 39.7% 7.3 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.2 8.7 9.2 6.9 5.0 4.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 97.3%
15-3 37.1% 96.9% 54.1% 42.8% 9.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.9 6.6 7.2 9.7 6.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 93.2%
14-4 13.4% 93.1% 49.0% 44.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.1 4.1 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.9 86.4%
13-5 2.9% 85.3% 44.0% 41.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 73.7%
12-6 0.4% 72.4% 41.1% 31.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 53.1%
11-7 0.0% 52.4% 38.1% 14.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.1%
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.9% 55.5% 41.4% 8.4 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.3 9.8 13.5 14.9 14.6 19.5 13.2 2.7 0.2 0.0 3.1 93.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 27.4% 100.0% 6.3 0.0 1.6 9.3 18.8 28.3 23.9 10.9 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.3% 98.3% 8.6 0.2 0.9 6.8 17.2 22.2 20.2 20.5 9.1 1.2 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.1% 97.0% 8.9 0.0 0.4 4.3 12.7 20.7 20.8 23.7 12.3 1.9 0.3