Buffalo
Mid-American
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#22
Achievement Rating+24.0#6
Pace79.3#26
Improvement+1.4#75

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#21
First Shot+6.6#26
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#85
Layup/Dunks+7.6#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#68
Freethrows-0.3#193
Improvement+1.8#43

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#47
First Shot+3.9#59
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#89
Layups/Dunks-2.9#277
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#7
Freethrows-0.4#195
Improvement-0.4#213
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 2.5% 2.9% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 31.0% 34.0% 15.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.0% 93.5% 83.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.0% 84.9% 68.6%
Average Seed 6.0 5.8 7.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.8% 99.4%
Conference Champion 77.5% 78.9% 70.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 1.5% 3.9%
First Round91.0% 92.7% 81.9%
Second Round60.0% 62.5% 46.6%
Sweet Sixteen27.8% 29.6% 18.2%
Elite Eight11.7% 12.6% 6.7%
Final Four4.8% 5.2% 2.5%
Championship Game1.8% 2.0% 0.9%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.3%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 84.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 215   St. Francis (PA) W 82-67 95%     1 - 0 +8.9 -1.9 +10.0
  Nov 09, 2018 38   @ West Virginia W 99-94 45%     2 - 0 +19.2 +15.0 +3.3
  Nov 12, 2018 99   @ Southern Illinois W 62-53 68%     3 - 0 +17.2 -1.8 +19.5
  Nov 21, 2018 237   Dartmouth W 110-71 96%     4 - 0 +31.2 +15.0 +10.4
  Nov 24, 2018 202   Marist W 76-49 95%     5 - 0 +21.4 +6.2 +17.4
  Nov 30, 2018 294   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 96-77 96%     6 - 0 +11.6 +14.6 -4.2
  Dec 01, 2018 47   San Francisco W 85-81 62%     7 - 0 +13.8 +11.4 +2.1
  Dec 08, 2018 152   @ St. Bonaventure W 80-62 81%     8 - 0 +21.7 +9.8 +11.6
  Dec 15, 2018 99   Southern Illinois W 80-69 84%    
  Dec 18, 2018 31   @ Syracuse L 72-74 42%    
  Dec 21, 2018 34   @ Marquette L 79-81 43%    
  Dec 29, 2018 227   @ Canisius W 84-70 91%    
  Jan 04, 2019 183   @ Eastern Michigan W 79-68 86%    
  Jan 08, 2019 75   Toledo W 84-75 81%    
  Jan 12, 2019 151   Miami (OH) W 86-71 92%    
  Jan 15, 2019 224   @ Western Michigan W 85-71 89%    
  Jan 18, 2019 183   Eastern Michigan W 82-65 94%    
  Jan 22, 2019 162   @ Northern Illinois W 85-75 82%    
  Jan 25, 2019 143   @ Kent St. W 84-76 78%    
  Jan 29, 2019 104   Ball St. W 87-76 85%    
  Feb 02, 2019 201   @ Bowling Green W 86-73 87%    
  Feb 09, 2019 173   Central Michigan W 90-73 93%    
  Feb 12, 2019 132   @ Akron W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 16, 2019 75   @ Toledo W 81-78 62%    
  Feb 19, 2019 153   Ohio W 88-73 92%    
  Feb 23, 2019 143   Kent St. W 87-73 90%    
  Feb 26, 2019 132   Akron W 81-68 88%    
  Mar 02, 2019 151   @ Miami (OH) W 83-74 80%    
  Mar 05, 2019 153   @ Ohio W 85-76 80%    
  Mar 08, 2019 201   Bowling Green W 89-70 95%    
Projected Record 25.9 - 4.1 15.3 - 2.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 8.2 16.0 21.0 19.6 9.9 77.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.2 4.8 2.6 0.7 0.0 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.5 8.3 13.4 18.6 21.7 19.6 9.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 9.9    9.9
17-1 99.9% 19.6    19.3 0.3
16-2 96.9% 21.0    19.1 1.9 0.0
15-3 85.6% 16.0    12.2 3.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 61.1% 8.2    4.5 3.1 0.6 0.0
13-5 30.5% 2.5    0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 77.5% 77.5 65.9 10.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 9.9% 99.4% 73.2% 26.2% 2.5 2.1 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.8%
17-1 19.6% 98.7% 66.2% 32.5% 3.9 0.4 3.5 5.2 4.5 2.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 96.2%
16-2 21.7% 97.2% 60.1% 37.1% 5.6 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.4 4.7 3.4 2.9 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 93.1%
15-3 18.6% 94.6% 53.5% 41.1% 7.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.2 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 88.4%
14-4 13.4% 90.0% 47.1% 43.0% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 2.7 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 81.1%
13-5 8.3% 82.5% 39.9% 42.6% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 70.9%
12-6 4.5% 72.5% 36.5% 36.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 56.6%
11-7 2.3% 58.2% 28.7% 29.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 41.3%
10-8 1.0% 40.9% 20.0% 20.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 26.1%
9-9 0.4% 29.7% 17.1% 12.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 15.3%
8-10 0.2% 17.2% 12.8% 4.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.1%
7-11 0.1% 10.2% 10.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.0% 55.4% 36.5% 6.0 2.5 7.7 9.6 11.2 11.2 9.4 10.7 10.0 8.6 6.2 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 82.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 1.6 51.7 39.3 7.0 1.5 0.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 99.3% 2.1 24.8 50.0 18.1 4.6 1.4 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 99.5% 2.1 21.7 54.0 18.2 4.5 1.0