Butler
Big East
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#46
Achievement Rating+8.4#67
Pace65.2#285
Improvement-3.0#292

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#35
First Shot+6.2#27
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#186
Layup/Dunks+2.4#96
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#135
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#44
Freethrows-1.4#274
Improvement-1.7#263

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#81
First Shot+1.7#117
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#34
Layups/Dunks+1.8#99
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#189
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#157
Freethrows-0.6#221
Improvement-1.2#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.1% 66.6% 35.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.0% 63.2% 31.5%
Average Seed 9.9 9.4 10.1
.500 or above 97.4% 100.0% 96.6%
.500 or above in Conference 46.6% 78.7% 36.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 0.4% 4.1%
First Four9.3% 8.4% 9.6%
First Round38.3% 62.3% 30.5%
Second Round15.1% 26.0% 11.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 4.7% 2.3%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.5% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 24.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 144   Miami (OH) W 90-68 84%     1 - 0 +21.0 +24.5 -1.5
  Nov 12, 2018 260   Detroit Mercy W 84-63 94%     2 - 0 +12.6 +0.1 +11.3
  Nov 16, 2018 38   Mississippi W 83-76 55%     3 - 0 +15.2 +13.9 +1.4
  Nov 21, 2018 72   Dayton L 64-69 60%     3 - 1 +1.8 -4.3 +5.9
  Nov 22, 2018 244   Middle Tennessee W 84-53 90%     4 - 1 +26.1 +15.1 +13.0
  Nov 23, 2018 29   Florida W 61-54 37%     5 - 1 +19.8 +11.1 +10.3
  Dec 01, 2018 121   @ Saint Louis L 52-64 62%     5 - 2 -5.8 -13.4 +7.5
  Dec 05, 2018 154   Brown W 70-55 86%     6 - 2 +12.8 +7.1 +7.4
  Dec 08, 2018 150   Northern Illinois W 95-68 86%     7 - 2 +25.0 +29.3 -1.5
  Dec 15, 2018 45   Indiana L 68-71 50%     7 - 3 +6.5 +6.3 -0.1
  Dec 18, 2018 215   Presbyterian W 76-67 92%     8 - 3 +3.0 -0.6 +4.0
  Dec 21, 2018 107   UC Irvine W 71-54 77%     9 - 3 +18.7 +5.7 +14.0
  Dec 29, 2018 29   @ Florida L 43-77 28%     9 - 4 -18.4 -12.0 -12.0
  Jan 02, 2019 68   Georgetown L 76-84 69%     9 - 5 0 - 1 -3.7 -3.4 +0.4
  Jan 05, 2019 51   Creighton W 84-69 61%     10 - 5 1 - 1 +21.5 +13.1 +8.5
  Jan 09, 2019 50   @ Seton Hall L 75-76 40%     10 - 6 1 - 2 +11.0 +6.0 +5.1
  Jan 13, 2019 82   @ Xavier L 69-70 52%     10 - 7 1 - 3 +7.8 +8.0 -0.4
  Jan 16, 2019 98   @ DePaul W 87-69 56%     11 - 7 2 - 3 +25.8 +17.6 +8.4
  Jan 19, 2019 42   St. John's W 80-71 57%     12 - 7 3 - 3 +16.7 +6.3 +9.9
  Jan 22, 2019 19   Villanova L 72-80 39%     12 - 8 3 - 4 +4.2 +12.1 -8.9
  Jan 25, 2019 51   @ Creighton L 61-75 40%     12 - 9 3 - 5 -2.0 -10.8 +9.4
  Jan 30, 2019 24   Marquette L 58-76 44%     12 - 10 3 - 6 -7.1 -9.2 +1.6
  Feb 02, 2019 50   Seton Hall W 70-68 61%     13 - 10 4 - 6 +8.5 +7.9 +0.8
  Feb 09, 2019 68   @ Georgetown W 73-69 48%     14 - 10 5 - 6 +13.9 +5.4 +8.6
  Feb 12, 2019 42   @ St. John's L 73-77 35%     14 - 11 5 - 7 +9.3 -0.2 +9.9
  Feb 16, 2019 98   DePaul W 91-78 75%     15 - 11 6 - 7 +15.3 +24.3 -8.1
  Feb 20, 2019 24   @ Marquette L 70-77 24%    
  Feb 26, 2019 80   Providence W 70-64 72%    
  Mar 02, 2019 19   @ Villanova L 66-74 21%    
  Mar 05, 2019 82   Xavier W 73-67 72%    
  Mar 09, 2019 80   @ Providence W 68-67 51%    
Projected Record 17.4 - 13.6 8.4 - 9.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.6 5.9 1.4 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 5.6 17.8 6.1 0.2 29.7 4th
5th 1.3 20.0 10.3 0.6 32.2 5th
6th 0.0 6.9 8.1 0.4 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 0.2 6.3 0.4 6.9 7th
8th 1.0 1.7 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 1.4 0.1 1.5 9th
10th 0.4 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 3.0 16.3 34.2 32.1 12.6 1.8 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.8% 95.6% 15.8% 79.8% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.8%
10-8 12.6% 84.9% 10.6% 74.3% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.9 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 1.9 83.1%
9-9 32.1% 66.6% 8.3% 58.2% 9.8 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.3 6.7 4.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.7 63.5%
8-10 34.2% 24.7% 5.7% 19.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 25.8 20.2%
7-11 16.3% 4.7% 2.6% 2.1% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 15.5 2.1%
6-12 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 43.1% 6.7% 36.4% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 4.7 11.5 11.7 9.3 3.8 0.7 0.0 56.9 39.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 6.0 3.1 22.6 45.3 24.4 4.2 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 99.3% 7.9 4.4 24.9 45.1 22.2 2.0 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 95.6% 8.5 0.7 11.8 37.0 35.2 8.9 1.8 0.2
Lose Out 1.4%