Cal Poly
Big West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.6#309
Achievement Rating-8.0#268
Pace64.7#309
Improvement+0.7#121

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#291
First Shot-2.4#249
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#291
Layup/Dunks+2.6#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#156
Freethrows-4.9#346
Improvement+1.6#52

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#293
First Shot-1.3#215
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#331
Layups/Dunks+5.4#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#341
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#282
Freethrows+0.8#140
Improvement-0.9#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 3.0% 6.6% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 13.8% 18.6% 12.3%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 32.2% 26.4% 34.0%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Away) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2018 40   @ Arizona L 61-82 3%     0 - 1 -7.2 -7.8 +1.7
  Nov 16, 2018 228   @ Sacramento St. L 65-73 24%    
  Nov 19, 2018 177   @ Washington St. L 70-84 16%     0.2367 - 2.7633 -12.2 -4.5 -7.6
  Nov 21, 2018 142   Texas St. L 42-54 17%     0.2367 - 3.7633 -10.4 -20.1 +7.5
  Nov 23, 2018 271   @ Portland L 67-72 30%     0.2367 - 4.7633 -8.1 -7.3 -1.0
  Nov 24, 2018 331   South Carolina Upstate W 75-74 61%     1.2367 - 4.7633 -10.6 -6.7 -3.9
  Dec 01, 2018 61   @ Fresno St. L 67-76 5%     1.2367 - 5.7633 +1.9 +6.7 -5.7
  Dec 08, 2018 308   Bethune-Cookman W 80-78 61%     2.2367 - 5.7633 -9.6 -2.6 -7.1
  Dec 15, 2018 179   @ California L 64-74 16%    
  Dec 18, 2018 210   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 60-69 21%    
  Dec 21, 2018 254   Texas Arlington L 67-68 49%    
  Dec 29, 2018 270   @ Siena L 63-69 30%    
  Jan 09, 2019 147   @ UC Santa Barbara L 59-72 12%    
  Jan 12, 2019 324   Cal St. Northridge W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 19, 2019 223   @ UC Davis L 59-67 23%    
  Jan 23, 2019 293   UC Riverside W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 26, 2019 167   Cal St. Fullerton L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 31, 2019 293   @ UC Riverside L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 02, 2019 324   @ Cal St. Northridge L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 07, 2019 223   UC Davis L 62-64 42%    
  Feb 09, 2019 197   Long Beach St. L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 14, 2019 185   @ Hawaii L 61-71 18%    
  Feb 21, 2019 97   @ UC Irvine L 56-73 6%    
  Feb 23, 2019 185   Hawaii L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 28, 2019 167   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 63-74 16%    
  Mar 02, 2019 197   @ Long Beach St. L 68-77 20%    
  Mar 07, 2019 97   UC Irvine L 59-70 16%    
  Mar 09, 2019 147   UC Santa Barbara L 62-69 28%    
Projected Record 8.3 - 19.7 4.9 - 11.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 6.2 4.5 0.8 0.0 14.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.3 8.8 5.7 1.1 0.0 20.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 7.1 9.7 5.4 0.9 0.0 25.4 8th
9th 1.1 4.2 7.2 6.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 21.3 9th
Total 1.1 4.3 9.3 13.9 16.6 16.7 13.9 10.3 6.8 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 79.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 44.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-5 14.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 12.5% 12.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 6.9% 6.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.3% 9.2% 9.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 0.8% 8.2% 8.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-6 1.9% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.8
9-7 3.8% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.7
8-8 6.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
7-9 10.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.1
6-10 13.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-11 16.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.6
4-12 16.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.6
3-13 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
2-14 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.3
1-15 4.3% 4.3
0-16 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%